Kempton Draw Bias

In four of the races the horse drawn in the highest stall won the race.

High drawn runners have the edge at Kempton at the moment and the trend seems to be getting more extreme.

The last meeting on the 19th November 2008 is a good example as high numbers that day dominated the results.

The 1st, 2nd, 3rd columns show the draw number. Some races had non runners and thus the draw number is more than the number of runners in the race.

Six of the seven races of less than a mile were won by double figured stalls. In four of the races the horse drawn in the highest stall won the race.

Those results are not a blip, or a random event. Those results are evidence that a high draw bias exists at Kempton. Being a right handed track there is a natural high draw bias but this is now more evident than it ever used to be.

Pace or Draw Bias?

Commenting on the races media pundits seemed a bit dismayed by the events which were unfolding. They could not believe that such a bias existed and yet race after race they had to accept it.

At one stage they replayed the races to show that high drawn runners were not necessarily capitalising the advantage of being drawn next to the rail and taking the lead on the inside of the bend. Some of the high drawn winners were settling in the back and then finishing late as is usually the case at Kempton. The pundits stated this was a 'pace bias' and not a draw bias at all.

The fact that a horse does not take advantage of his high drawn position to dominate the race means that it is the low drawn runners which are experiencing a strong bias too.

Some of the low drawn runners have to exert a lot of energy at the start of the race in order to get a good position before the first bend. This exertion of energy depletes the reserves required for the run in. A high drawn runner who did capitalise his advantage and ran up at the front had reserves. A high drawn runner who did not capitalise his advantage and settled in the back also had reserves. Mid to low drawn runners did not have the energy to accelerate at the finish and could not compete with the high drawn runners.

Pundits can call this whatever type of bias they like but the fact is this is a draw bias: horses drawn high are winning more than their fair share of races and horses drawn low are winning less than their fair share of races.

Permanent or Temporary?

Polytrack surfaces can be influenced in two ways. Track maintenance is one influence and the weather the other.

The polytrack surface is so versatile that the going can vary across the complete width of the track. If the course management team wished to do so they could make the going slow on the far side, standard in the middle and fast on the stands side. This seems to be the case at Lingfield in recent years.

Sharp frosts or heavy rain can change the speed of the surface. If the drainage on one part of the course is poor, or the track could not be worked as usual then stronger or weaker draw biases will be apparent. Punters should always look out for temporary draw biases which can be created after distinct changes in weather.

Pittsburgh Phil's Advice

Avoid the low drawn runners in Kempton sprint races. They are experiencing a big disadvantage compared to high drawn runners and are proving very unprofitable to follow.

Try combining some of the three or four highest drawn runners in Exactas or Tote Swingers. If punters and media pundits are not willing to accept that a strong high draw bias exists the dividend returns are going to be paying higher than they should.

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• Kempton Draw Bias

Article created 27-Nov-08. Stats may have changed since.