New Polytrack Surface installed 14th November 2001. This article was written in November 2000. A new polytrack surface has been installed at Lingfield and thus this article is no longer valid. Please read the following update article: Lingfield Polytrack Racecourse
Its well known that Lingfield enjoys a low draw bias. But as we have proved with Chester, punters just will not believe it. They refuse to rule out a
selection if he is drawn high and will not even consider a low drawn horse if
the form is bad.
What is happening at Lingfield is quite phenomenal. Some of the recent results seem to indicate that being drawn high turns a thoroughbred into an ox
pulling a plough, and low drawn horses seem to be running with the aid of a conveyor belt.
There has always been a low draw bias at Lingfield but the past 3 months has
seen some amazing results. As we will show in the following tables you can
basically throw out the form book, back all 3 horses drawn 1, 2 or 3, and make
a 50% profit.
| Year |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 2000 |
34 |
245 |
14% |
0.99 |
9.30 |
4% |
| 2001 |
19 |
133 |
14% |
1.02 |
26.75 |
20% |
Looking at Lingfield low drawn (1,2 and 3) runners since the start of the
All Weather season on 07-Nov-00, there were 53 winners from 378 runners (14%)
producing a profit of £36.05 (10%). But don't see this as a 14% strike
rate as we are betting 3 horses in the race. There were a total of 130 races
run so the true strike rate for winning races is 41%.
As you can see it has been possible to back all 3 low drawn runners and make
profit. If you were to use some kind of dutching method the profits will be
much greater.
Note that the 130 races should have produced 390 runners but 12 were non
runners which gives us the total 378 runners.
| Handicap Stakes |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| Handicap |
32 |
206 |
16% |
1.11 |
100.13 |
49% |
| Stakes |
21 |
172 |
12% |
0.87 |
-64.08 |
-37% |
A true draw bias will show itself more in handicap races. This is because
the runners are weighted to have the same chance of winning.
| Distance |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 5.0 |
11 |
39 |
28% |
2.01 |
45.25 |
116% |
| 6.0 |
9 |
50 |
18% |
1.28 |
19.80 |
40% |
| 7.0 |
7 |
76 |
9% |
0.66 |
0.50 |
1% |
| 8.0 |
6 |
84 |
7% |
0.51 |
-54.00 |
-64% |
| 10.0 |
11 |
70 |
16% |
1.12 |
-6.75 |
-10% |
| 12.0 |
6 |
35 |
17% |
1.22 |
33.25 |
95% |
If you have looked at the draw statistics you would already know that 7f and
8f races are bogey races for the low drawn runners. We think this is because of
the positioning of the running rail, or because these races start in the
straight and give the other horses a furlong or two to power in front and
snatch the lead before the first bend.
| Distance Range |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| Sprint |
27 |
165 |
16% |
1.17 |
65.55 |
40% |
| Middle |
17 |
154 |
11% |
0.79 |
-60.75 |
-39% |
| Long |
9 |
59 |
15% |
1.09 |
31.25 |
53% |
| Runners |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 1 to 10 Runners |
32 |
199 |
16% |
1.15 |
40.17 |
20% |
| 11 - 16 Runners |
21 |
179 |
12% |
0.84 |
-4.12 |
-2% |
You would think that the bigger the field the more chance the low drawn
runners would have, and the more profit they would make. But as the field size
increases we are not increasing our number of runners to compensate.
| Ages |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 2yo |
7 |
57 |
12% |
0.88 |
-22.75 |
-40% |
| 3yo |
4 |
33 |
12% |
0.86 |
-1.00 |
-3% |
| 3yo+ |
33 |
218 |
15% |
1.08 |
31.05 |
14% |
| 4yo+ |
9 |
70 |
13% |
0.92 |
28.75 |
41% |
| Age |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 2 |
7 |
57 |
12% |
0.88 |
-22.75 |
-40% |
| 3 |
19 |
113 |
17% |
1.20 |
29.37 |
26% |
| 4 |
10 |
97 |
10% |
0.74 |
-13.95 |
-14% |
| 5 |
10 |
44 |
23% |
1.62 |
15.88 |
36% |
As we have said in the draw statistics section, 2yo's don't make good use of
low draws because of their inexperience.
| Gender |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| Colts |
10 |
52 |
19% |
1.37 |
14.42 |
28% |
| Fillies |
10 |
113 |
9% |
0.63 |
-23.00 |
-20% |
| Geldings |
28 |
189 |
15% |
1.06 |
42.13 |
22% |
Fillies are always a bad bet at Lingfield. Nearly every system we test tells
us to avoid fillies.
| Horse Type |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
|
44 |
309 |
14% |
1.02 |
69.30 |
22% |
| Maiden |
9 |
66 |
14% |
0.97 |
-30.25 |
-46% |
| Race Type |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
|
42 |
277 |
15% |
1.08 |
66.50 |
24% |
| Claiming |
4 |
36 |
11% |
0.79 |
-6.45 |
-18% |
| Selling |
2 |
36 |
6% |
0.40 |
-24.50 |
-68% |
| Race Class |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| D |
16 |
115 |
14% |
0.99 |
-30.50 |
-27% |
| E |
16 |
113 |
14% |
1.01 |
2.30 |
2% |
| F |
11 |
81 |
14% |
0.97 |
12.63 |
16% |
| G |
4 |
47 |
9% |
0.61 |
-12.00 |
-26% |
| Race Rating |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 0 |
18 |
160 |
11% |
0.80 |
-49.58 |
-31% |
| 60 |
6 |
30 |
20% |
1.43 |
8.38 |
28% |
| 70 |
7 |
50 |
14% |
1.00 |
18.00 |
36% |
| 75 |
8 |
54 |
15% |
1.06 |
-11.75 |
-22% |
| Headgear |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
|
43 |
294 |
15% |
1.04 |
57.80 |
20% |
| Blinkers |
7 |
50 |
14% |
1.00 |
-12.25 |
-25% |
| Visor |
3 |
31 |
10% |
0.69 |
-6.50 |
-21% |
| SP Pos |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 1 |
18 |
53 |
34% |
2.42 |
1.80 |
3% |
| 2 |
6 |
45 |
13% |
0.95 |
-16.25 |
-36% |
| 3 |
9 |
34 |
26% |
1.89 |
22.00 |
65% |
| 4 |
9 |
46 |
20% |
1.40 |
30.50 |
66% |
| 5 |
1 |
40 |
3% |
0.18 |
-33.00 |
-83% |
| 6 |
4 |
36 |
11% |
0.79 |
27.00 |
75% |
| 7 |
2 |
32 |
6% |
0.45 |
-2.00 |
-6% |
| SP Range |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| Fancied |
16 |
54 |
30% |
2.11 |
-5.95 |
-11% |
| Moderate |
17 |
80 |
21% |
1.52 |
10.50 |
13% |
| Not Fancied |
20 |
244 |
8% |
0.58 |
31.50 |
13% |
| SP |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 2/1 to 9/2 |
19 |
82 |
23% |
1.65 |
-2.75 |
-3% |
| 5/1 to 9/1 |
14 |
87 |
16% |
1.15 |
14.50 |
17% |
| 10/1 to 18/1 |
8 |
95 |
8% |
0.60 |
13.00 |
14% |
| 20/1+ |
4 |
94 |
4% |
0.30 |
13.00 |
14% |
The above tables show how much punters are 'giving away' in prices. The
ROI's are not decreasing in line with the lower strike rates.
| Last Ran |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 1 to 7 days |
10 |
45 |
22% |
1.58 |
42.50 |
94% |
| 1 to 14 days |
19 |
129 |
15% |
1.05 |
0.18 |
0% |
| 57+ days |
15 |
118 |
13% |
0.91 |
32.75 |
28% |
| Weight Pos |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 1 |
8 |
39 |
21% |
1.46 |
-8.75 |
-22% |
| 2 |
6 |
41 |
15% |
1.04 |
-12.37 |
-30% |
| 3 |
10 |
43 |
23% |
1.66 |
28.30 |
66% |
| 4 |
7 |
40 |
18% |
1.25 |
4.12 |
10% |
| 5 |
8 |
38 |
21% |
1.50 |
37.50 |
99% |
| 6 |
4 |
37 |
11% |
0.77 |
-0.25 |
-1% |
| 7 |
3 |
43 |
7% |
0.50 |
-19.50 |
-45% |
| Weight 1 |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 130lbs+ |
18 |
93 |
19% |
1.38 |
58.38 |
63% |
| 120lbs to 129lbs |
26 |
188 |
14% |
0.99 |
-57.33 |
-30% |
| upto 119lbs |
9 |
97 |
9% |
0.66 |
35.00 |
36% |
| Allowance |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 0 lbs |
38 |
249 |
15% |
1.09 |
27.42 |
11% |
| 3 lbs |
1 |
44 |
2% |
0.16 |
-41.12 |
-93% |
| 5 lbs |
10 |
54 |
19% |
1.32 |
35.75 |
66% |
| 7 lbs |
4 |
31 |
13% |
0.92 |
14.00 |
45% |
| Distance Wins |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 0 |
32 |
259 |
12% |
0.88 |
-0.75 |
0% |
| 1 |
12 |
74 |
16% |
1.16 |
10.25 |
14% |
| Course Wins |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 0 |
32 |
264 |
12% |
0.86 |
-5.13 |
-2% |
| 1 |
8 |
58 |
14% |
0.98 |
17.25 |
30% |
| CD Wins |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 0 |
40 |
313 |
13% |
0.91 |
-10.75 |
-3% |
| 1 |
8 |
40 |
20% |
1.43 |
31.75 |
79% |
| Month |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| November |
21 |
135 |
16% |
1.11 |
9.12 |
7% |
| December |
13 |
110 |
12% |
0.84 |
0.18 |
0% |
| January |
19 |
133 |
14% |
1.02 |
26.75 |
20% |
| LTO Race |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| First time out |
7 |
51 |
14% |
0.98 |
-2.00 |
-4% |
| All Weather |
33 |
241 |
14% |
0.98 |
-15.32 |
-6% |
| Turf |
13 |
86 |
15% |
1.08 |
53.37 |
62% |
Standard all weather 'rules of thumb' don't apply with low drawn horses.
Even horses having their first run are winning more than they should.
| Good Runs Last 3 |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| 0 |
21 |
214 |
10% |
0.70 |
-4.00 |
-2% |
| 1 |
17 |
99 |
17% |
1.22 |
30.62 |
31% |
| 2 |
11 |
50 |
22% |
1.57 |
-6.07 |
-12% |
| Class Change |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| Up 1 Class |
7 |
55 |
13% |
0.91 |
12.75 |
23% |
| Down 1 Class |
8 |
72 |
11% |
0.79 |
-11.32 |
-16% |
| Jockey Change |
Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
£1 Win |
ROI% |
| Same |
22 |
135 |
16% |
1.16 |
12.05 |
9% |
| Change |
24 |
192 |
13% |
0.89 |
26.00 |
14% |
| Change Pro to Pro |
13 |
91 |
14% |
1.02 |
18.50 |
20% |
| Change App to Pro |
4 |
34 |
12% |
0.84 |
6.50 |
19% |
| Change Pro to App |
4 |
44 |
9% |
0.65 |
-5.50 |
-13% |
Conclusion
It is clear that low drawn runners are currently having a tremendous
advantage. The above tables are the results of betting all 3 low drawn horses
regardless of form, speed rating, jockey, trainer form etc. Overall a 10%
profit has been achieved and you would have won 41% of races. Using dutching
methods to apportion varying stakes onto each of the runners to obtain a level
return should increase the profit.
Betting the lowest 3 drawn horses in handicap races would have returned
nearly a 50% profit over the past 3 months. And if you just bet them in
handicaps of 10 runners or less you would have won nearly 60% of them and
returned a profit of 76%
Whilst the track is in its current state it looks a good bet stay with this draw bias phenomenon.
Related Articles and Resources
Data analysed 07-Nov-00 to 27-Jan-01. Article created 27-Jan-01. Stats may have changed since.
