Despite his amazing strike rate punters are very much under betting his runners such that a crazy level stake profit of nearly 100% has been returned
Saeed bin Suroor - In Form Trainer
Currently there is no trainer more in form than Saeed bin Suroor. As at 14th November 2009 the finishing position of his last 50 runners on the all weather was:
11524111212110301111112211314212113511112131111165
Just look at those 1s in that list! There are 30 of them and this equates to a strike rate of 60%.
Saeed bin Suroor Last 50 Runs on All Weather
| Wins | Runs | Win% | Plc% | A/E | £1 Win | ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 50 | 60% | 82% | 1.51 | £49.29 | 98.6% |
Last 50 runs on the all weather up to 14-Nov-09
These figures are incredible. How can any trainer manage to consistently hit a strike rate of 60%? How can any trainer return a profit of 98.6% from 50 bets!
Clearly Saeed bin Suroor "has the horses". The owners (Godolphin) are sending out more and more well bred horses that are just too classy for the competition at the moment. Saeed bin Suroor has mastered the all weather and is able to beat anything Stoute, Gosden, Noseda, Jarvis and all the other top trainers put up against him.
An In Form Trainer Profitable?
What about the prices? Are punters latching onto Saeed bin Suroor's good fortune and overbetting his runners?
Fortunately for those punters following him the answer is no. Despite his amazing strike rate punters are very much under betting his runners such that a crazy level stake profit of nearly 100% has been returned.
Even more significant is the A/E 'value' stat figure. With his last 50 runners Saeed bin Suroor has been hitting an A/E of 1.51. This is incredibly high for such a high strike rate trainer and is the main indicator that his runners are being under bet by punters.
This goes to prove that when a trainer "hits form" he is not necessarily overbet by the public. Despite all the media hype about a trainer doing really well punters will still refuse to latch onto a hot trainer and still base their selections via the form book.
33 of Saeed bin Suroor's last 50 runners were favourite. This means 17 (a third) were not the favourite! Some of them were big drifters in the market too.
At Lingfield on Saturday Con Artist drifted from 3/1 out to 7/1 and won the race. Punters clearly did not like the look of the horse or his 3rd place form prior to the race.
Will the Good Form Continue?
It is unlikely the 60% strike rate will be maintained as Saeed bin Suroor will only have a set amount of good horses he would want to run right now on the all weather. And for those horses he has already won with he will find less and less races they can run in.
The 100% ROI is unlikely to be sustainable but Saeed bin Suroor should still return a profit from his all weather runners. Looking at the stats for the past 3 seasons he has returned profits of 32.7%, 23.6% and 65.6% for 2009. As long as punters continue to under bet his runners these profits should continue.
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Article created 14-Nov-09. Stats may have changed since.
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