Some jockeys have flaws in their riding style and abilities which mean that they are less effective at some courses or distances

Stat Busting - When Horse Racing Stats Go Bad

Stat Busting: this is a term used when a trainer, sire, or jockey does something they do not normally do - they defy the stats.

A good example of this is trainer R A Fahey at Kempton yesterday. On the Flatstats messageboard one poster pointed out Fahey's poor record in a specific type of race (2 wins from 38), and over on the Betfair forum someone posted up Fahey's poor record at the Kempton (4 wins from 88).

There were a lot of negatives for the Fahey's horse Ghazwah: as already pointed out the biggest negatives were for the trainer. But something unusual happened; Ghazwah won at odds of 9/4 and busted the negative stats.

This kind of thing is good for stats based punters. Now and again a stat goes bad and there are many punters who will point out that the 'stats were wrong'. They see one race where a stat goes bad and they will now never believe that stat again. But just as "one swallow does not make a summer", one winning horse does not turn a negative stat into a positive one.

So what happens next time Fahey has a runner at Kempton? Would you now back him or would you stick with the negative stat? Despite Ghazwah winning Fahey still has a poor record at Kempton.

Stats for all races at Kempton to 18-Feb-10

Those stats are dire. Look at the huge loss, and look at the very low A/E stat which shows that Fahey runners are very poor value at Kempton.

That is where some punters go wrong when using stats. They only see high strike rate / low strike rate and make a decision as to will win / will not win. They do not see the value aspect which in this example clearly shows bad value.

Hayley Turner Stat Busted

Here is an example from a few weeks ago. Hayley Turner has a very poor record in all weather long distance races:

Stats for all 12f+ races to 18-Feb-10

That is a low strike rate and again look at the poor value A/E stat.

The poor record was pointed out a few times over the past months and of course! Turner goes on to bust the stat with a winner.

That winner was Satwa Gold and he was the classiest horse in low class race. Satwa Gold won a selling race at odds of 4/5f.

What happened after that? Turner reverted to her usual self and failed to win in long distance races.

Since that win on Satwa Gold Turner's form figures are:

423336420

In 5 of those races she rode fancied horses but none won. Anyone laying Turner's long distance rides would have more than made up the loss for paying out on Satwa Gold.

Pittsburgh Phil's Advice

Trainers, jockeys and sires are creatures of habit: they tend to always do what they have always done. If you find one with a negative stat keep following it. They may bust the stat now and again but in the long run the stat should keep on identifying bad value bets.

Of course you have to ensure that a negative stat is not just a blip, and you have to ensure that you have not backfitted the stat else it can turn against you long term. But as long as the sample size is sufficient, and the A/E stat is not biased towards bigger prices then the stat should be sound.

Some trainers send horses to courses which they are not too bothered about winning; some jockeys have flaws in their riding style and abilities which mean that they are less effective at some courses or distances. It may be that jockeys will learn to master all race distances given more time but this is something which has not happened yet with Hayley Turner.

Related Articles and Resources

• Hayley Turner Jockey Stats
• Richard Fahey Trainer Stats

Comment on this Article in the Message Board

• Stat Busting - Horse Racing Stats

          

Article created 19-Nov-10. Stats may have changed since.