There is no magic formula behind the ratings. The ratings are based purely on assessing the value of key stats

Horse Racing Ratings

Flatstats ratings are unique because they take hardly any horse racing form into consideration. The ratings are derived purely from horse racing stats and this gives Flatstats subscribers a big edge over other punters.

The majority of horse racing ratings supplied by other services are based around recent form in some way. It doesn't matter if those services use time, class, weight, or beaten lengths the ratings are directly based on form.

If so many services are using form as the basis for their ratings then it is much harder for those services to find value bets. A horse which is top rated with one service, is most likely to be top rated by all the others and thus the selection will be popular in the betting shops up and down the country.

Flatstats is different and this is why we regularly find big priced winners. Winners such as Minnesinger who won a maiden stakes race at 80/1 !

There is no way in the world that any form based rating could pick winners like Minnesinger. Other ratings services would have highly rated the first few in the betting because of good recent form, or a top jockey was riding for a top trainer. But Flatstats identified that the conditions were right for Minnesinger. All the stats pointed to a win - a win at a crazy price of 80/1.

Flatstats Horse Racing Ratings

The Flatstats ratings use the following stats:

• Sire Stats
• Trainer Stats
• Jockey Stats
• Horse Earnings
• Draw Stats

The Horse Earnings stats provide a 'class' assessment element and are an essential part for analysing all aged handicaps and other races where horses have had plenty of runs.

The profitability of the draw is analysed. If profitable or unprofitable draw ranges are identified then the ratings will compensate for this. The ratings will assess the profitability of each draw range and adjust the rating accordingly.

The Formula

There is no magic formula behind the ratings. The ratings are based purely on assessing the value of key stats such as:

• Going
• Course
• Distance
• Class
• Race Type
• Ages
• Runners
• Last Ran

The going is a big influence, but equally as important is how well the horse can act at the course. Very few punters realise that some horses have difficulty running on a right handed course, or on stiff or uphill courses etc. If a horse is trying a new type of course or going for the first time then the sire stats are invaluable. They can indicate if the horse should handle the track or not.

The race type stat is a conglomerate made up of stats such as if the race is a handicap or stakes, a claiming or conditions race, a maiden race or open etc.

Another important stat is the last ran interval. This is based on just three stats: if the horse is returning quickly, is running after a long lay off, or is running for the first time.

For all the stats the A/E impact value index is used. This figure is like a cross between the impact value and ROI stats but it is a much better figure to use for finding value bets.

Using the A/E figure has made the ratings much more effective at finding winners in which the general public would never consider. It is not uncommon to find some top rated selections winning at crazy odds just because the form figures read 0000.

Related Articles and Resources

• Stats Guide - information on Impact Values and the A/E Value Index.
• 80/1 Winner!

Article created 16-Jun-04. Stats may have changed since.