Multiply that saving by thousands of bets placed by other punters and you can see how much it is in bookies interests to see situations like this happen!
On Course Betting and SP Returns - Starting Price Manipulation?
It seems that more and more races on the all weather are returning suspect SPs. Recently favourites such as Giant Sequoia (Kempton 28-Oct-09) had SPs much lower than the Betfair SP and this has aroused suspicion with punters.
I would not dwell too much on that. If it just so happens that Betfair now has a stronger market than the bookie market then it is just a case of Betfair punters being smarter than the crowd.
There are a few recent dodgy looking returns though. Whilst this happens now and again on turf it seems to be getting more frequent on the all weather.
This is due to the fact that few punters are bothering to go to these meetings, and fewer bookies are bothering to turn up too (Kempton evening meetings being the worst for lack of on course bookies).
Yesterday at Lingfield Aeroplane was a 1/5 shot in an 8 runner race. Take a look at the betting patterns of not just the favourite but of the other runners:
1:30 Lingfield 25-Nov-09 Betting Shows
| Horse | SP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aeroplane | 2/7 | 1/4 | 2/7 | 1/4 | 2/9 | 1/5 |
| Rioliina | 8/1 | 12/1 | 14/1 | 8/1 | ||
| Monashee Rock | 8/1 | 7/1 | 10/1 | 11/1 | 12/1 | 9/1 |
| Flawed Genius | 10/1 | 11/1 | 12/1 | 11/1 | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| Ever Cheerful | 20/1 | 33/1 | 20/1 | |||
| Double Valentine | 50/1 | 66/1 | 50/1 | |||
| Incy Wincy | 50/1 | 100/1 | 50/1 | |||
| Bluebird Chariot | 50/1 | 80/1 | 50/1 |
Notice how at the off every horse 'was backed'. Clearly this is suspicious. It shows that there was a vested interest in dropping the price of all runners and not just the favourite in order to save the betting industry tens of thousands of pounds in each way steals.
Rioliina was 14/1 before the miraculous price crash. If a punter had a tenner each way on him at SP he would have had £26 returned to him. However, if he were paid out at the 'final show' price of 14/1 he would have had £38 returned to him. In this case the bookies have saved £12 when the price dropped from 14/1 to 8/1.
Multiply that saving by thousands of bets placed by other punters and you can see how much it is in bookies interests to see situations like this happen!
Everyone is a Winner
Ironically racing is actually better off when things like this happen. As bookies pay a Gross Profit Tax, if they can reduce their liabilities they increase their profits. If they increase profits they pay more to the levy. So do not worry punters - betting shenanigans like the 1:30 at Lingfield are actually helping to make our wonderful sport flourish!
Taking Early Prices
When placing multiple bets I usually take prices on stand out horses, and most definitely the last leg of the multiple (in case all the others are winners, and there is a possibility of a bonus being landed - a hedge opportunity etc.)
Nowadays on the all weather I am generally taking the price for all runners. Usually this works out right as some of the early prices are much more generous than the Big 3 / evil bookie suspect SP prices. But it does not always work out like that.
The other week I backed Nakoma at 4/1 on the opening show - it won at SP 8/1. I backed a Godolphin Drifter - Con Artist - at short odds and it won at SP 7/1. Last week I took 9/1 Libre and it placed at SP 33/1!
So it is not all bad news out there: sometimes the market can go in your favour, and of course, drifters can win.
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Article created 26-Nov-09.
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