Random Horse Racing Systems

Every few months a new horse racing system pops up on various message boards. Someone finds a 'profitable betting angle', starts to post selections on a message board and many other punters are convinced that this is the real deal.

Usually these systems are total rubbish and punters are just being fooled by randomness. The results are the same as throwing a dart at the racecard and yet some punters do not realise this and continue to follow it. They want the system to succeed and will do everything to perpetuate the myth that they have found the golden goose.

A winner is found and the results are plastered all over the message board. Ten losers are next but this is not noted and punters will always remember the last winner but never the losers inbetween.

This is a classic example of Confirmation Bias and, along with synchronicity, is something which system punters should always look out for and always avoid.

Confirmation bias is rife in betting. It is a trait evident with all punters who believe in luck, coincidence, or superstitious betting. Examples of this include 'I never win when I back a horse ridden by Spencer', or 'Spencer always wins when I do not back him'.

Synchronicity is another punter demon. It will alert him to things which are not really true. An example of this is a random result system which 'always has winners'.

One such system is the Third Letter R nonsense system. Every time a horse with the third letter in the name is 'R' wins the punter will reaffirm his belief that this is a magical system which can not fail.

Horse No. 2

One recent system doing the rounds is the Horse No. 2 system. This is a system which has appeared on the Betfair Forum recently and is based purely on backing the horse which is numbered 2 in the racecard.

This system just does not work. Here is the proof:

Horse No. 2 System Results:
2749 wins from 22679 runs, 12.1% strike rate, -£5,567.07 loss (-24.5% ROI)

Those are the results for backing all horses who are number 2 on the racecard (or have 2 on the saddlecloth). The strike rate is 12% and the loss backing all the runners is 24%. You would have a better return backing last time out winners (18% loss), or just backing all 2nd favourites (11% loss).

You can view a dataset for this system in the Backing Systems section of the Flatstats site. Change the category to Miscellaneous and select the system: Horse No. 2 on Racecard.

Do not be fooled by the figures though, and do not whittle away at the filters and fall into another trap for system punters: backfitting data!

Related Articles and Resources

• Flatstats Guide to Horse Racing Systems

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• Random Horse Racing Systems

Article created 16-Jul-09. Stats may have changed since.