This article has been superceded. Please see the new article for Flatstats Horse Racing Ratings

Sire Ratings

Analysing races using sire stats can take some time if you do not know which stats are useful and which stats are not. It is quite easy to get overwhelmed by the figures and end up going around in circles trying to find a winner!

To assist in your quest for finding winners Flatstats introduces new Sire Ratings.

The sire ratings can help you quickly identify horses which will be suited to (and horses which will not be suited to) a particular race. Using the ratings you will be able to identify possible win bets or possible lays in seconds.

The Formula

There is no magic formula behind the ratings. The ratings are based purely on weighing up the chances of each runner from eight key stats:

• Going
• Course
• Distance
• Class
• Race Type
• Ages
• Runners
• Last Ran

Experience tells us that the above criteria are the most important when assessing a horse using sire stats.

The going is a big influence, but equally as important is how well the horse can act at the course. Very few punters realise that some horses have difficulty running on a right handed course, or on stiff, uphill courses etc. The sire stats can indicate if the horse should handle the track or not.

The race type stat is a conglomerate made up of stats such as if the race is a handicap or stakes, a claiming or conditions race, a maiden race or open etc.

Another important stat is the last ran interval. This is based on just three stats: if the horse is returning quickly, is running after a long lay off, or is running for the first time.

The stats are not based on strike rate as this can be misleading. When using historic data, rating the chances of a horse based on the wins to runs ratio is going to be flawed due to price differences. To overcome this, the ratings are based purely on the ROI (return on investment, or profit) stat.

For each criteria the ROI is analysed and a formula is used to produce a final Sire Rating.

How to use the Sire Ratings

The sire ratings will be more or less effective in different types of races thus they should be used differently for each type of race.

2yo Races
The less information the general public have about a runner the more edge us sire stats punters should have. If the majority of punters base their selections on 'form', and there is very little form to go on, then sire stats are really going to be effective.

In 2yo races, especially early in the season, we could be dealing with many runners who have never raced or who have only raced once or twice. In these races the sire stats are most effective. Consider backing the top rated selection.

So far this year (to 18-May-03) the top rated selection in 2yo races has hit a strike rate of 26.7% and returned a profit of 70%.

The reason why the profits are so great is because the masses have very little form to go on. They will heavily overbet a 2yo who has shown a glimmer of hope in a previous race, they will listen to the stable whispers and barking dogs. In both cases the masses will not understand that the 2yo may just not be suited to the going, course shape, class, race type, last ran interval etc. This gives us a big edge as we may know that the horse may not be suited to the race, but a top rated, juicy 10/1 shot will.

*Update October-2003. Backing the top rated in 2yo races later in the season is not profitable. This is due to the more exposed form and fitness advantage some 2yo's have over late season debutants.

Older Maiden Stakes
Again, sire stats are going to be effective in this race purely because there is not much 'history' for each runner. The edge is not as effective though as the runners may have had a handful of runs (possibly over the course and distance, the same going etc.) and thus any top rated selection may be exposed and offer little value.

In these races you should look at the top three rated and dig a bit deeper to see who offers the best value.

Handicaps
Handicaps are going to be the hardest races to rate using sire stats. The runners would have had plenty of races and thus their abilities would be exposed.

The best advice for handicaps is to consider lightly raced runners who are rated in the top 3 or 4. If the horse is lightly raced (had less than say 6 runs), then form punters may not consider the horse. The sire stats, however, could indicate that the horse has the ability to win.

The best contender in handicaps is one who has only had a few runs, and those runs were over totally unsuitable goings, course shapes or last ran intervals etc. but today, the conditions are perfect.

The Future

The sire stats are currently in a "raw state". Whilst accurate enough to be profitable in many race types, they do require weighting factors (derived from multiple regression analysis) to make them even more accurate.

The sire ratings are just the first stage. These ratings will be combined with trainer and jockey stats, horse class rating, and draw data to produce an overall power rating.

From the power rating, an accurate betting forecast can be calculated and thus, value bets identified instantly.

Related Articles and Resources

• How the Flatstats Ratings are Calculated
• Flatstats Horse Racing Ratings Guide
• 66/1 Top Rated Winner!
• Sire Ratings Update

Article created 25-May-03.Stats may have changed since.