Low Draw Bias at Lingfield

New Polytrack Surface installed 14th November 2001

This article was written in November 2000. A new polytrack surface has been installed at Lingfield and thus this article is no longer valid. Please read the following update article: Lingfield Polytrack Racecourse

Its well known that Lingfield enjoys a low draw bias. But as we have proved with Chester, punters just will not believe it. They refuse to rule out a selection if he is drawn high and will not even consider a low drawn horse if the form is bad.

What is happening at Lingfield is quite phenomenal. Some of the recent results seem to indicate that being drawn high turns a thoroughbred into an ox pulling a plough, and low drawn horses seem to be running with the aid of a conveyor belt.

There has always been a low draw bias at Lingfield but the past 3 months has seen some amazing results. As we will show in the following tables you can basically throw out the form book, back all 3 horses drawn 1, 2 or 3, and make a 50% profit.

Year Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
2000 34 245 14% 0.99 9.30 4%
2001 19 133 14% 1.02 26.75 20%

Looking at Lingfield low drawn (1,2 and 3) runners since the start of the All Weather season on 07-Nov-00, there were 53 winners from 378 runners (14%) producing a profit of £36.05 (10%). But don't see this as a 14% strike rate as we are betting 3 horses in the race. There were a total of 130 races run so the true strike rate for winning races is 41%.

As you can see it has been possible to back all 3 low drawn runners and make profit. If you were to use some kind of dutching method the profits will be much greater.

Note that the 130 races should have produced 390 runners but 12 were non runners which gives us the total 378 runners.

Handicap Stakes Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
Handicap 32 206 16% 1.11 100.13 49%
Stakes 21 172 12% 0.87 -64.08 -37%

A true draw bias will show itself more in handicap races. This is because the runners are weighted to have the same chance of winning.

Distance Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
5.0 11 39 28% 2.01 45.25 116%
6.0 9 50 18% 1.28 19.80 40%
7.0 7 76 9% 0.66 0.50 1%
8.0 6 84 7% 0.51 -54.00 -64%
10.0 11 70 16% 1.12 -6.75 -10%
12.0 6 35 17% 1.22 33.25 95%

If you have looked at the draw statistics you would already know that 7f and 8f races are bogey races for the low drawn runners. We think this is because of the positioning of the running rail, or because these races start in the straight and give the other horses a furlong or two to power in front and snatch the lead before the first bend.

Distance Range Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
Sprint 27 165 16% 1.17 65.55 40%
Middle 17 154 11% 0.79 -60.75 -39%
Long 9 59 15% 1.09 31.25 53%

Runners Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
1 to 10 Runners 32 199 16% 1.15 40.17 20%
11 - 16 Runners 21 179 12% 0.84 -4.12 -2%

You would think that the bigger the field the more chance the low drawn runners would have, and the more profit they would make. But as the field size increases we are not increasing our number of runners to compensate.

Ages Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
2yo 7 57 12% 0.88 -22.75 -40%
3yo 4 33 12% 0.86 -1.00 -3%
3yo+ 33 218 15% 1.08 31.05 14%
4yo+ 9 70 13% 0.92 28.75 41%

Age Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
2 7 57 12% 0.88 -22.75 -40%
3 19 113 17% 1.20 29.37 26%
4 10 97 10% 0.74 -13.95 -14%
5 10 44 23% 1.62 15.88 36%

As we have said in the draw statistics section, 2yo's don't make good use of low draws because of their inexperience.

Gender Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
Colts 10 52 19% 1.37 14.42 28%
Fillies 10 113 9% 0.63 -23.00 -20%
Geldings 28 189 15% 1.06 42.13 22%

Fillies are always a bad bet at Lingfield. Nearly every system we test tells us to avoid fillies.

Horse Type Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
44 309 14% 1.02 69.30 22%
Maiden 9 66 14% 0.97 -30.25 -46%

Race Type Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
42 277 15% 1.08 66.50 24%
Claiming 4 36 11% 0.79 -6.45 -18%
Selling 2 36 6% 0.40 -24.50 -68%

Race Class Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
D 16 115 14% 0.99 -30.50 -27%
E 16 113 14% 1.01 2.30 2%
F 11 81 14% 0.97 12.63 16%
G 4 47 9% 0.61 -12.00 -26%

Race Rating Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
0 18 160 11% 0.80 -49.58 -31%
60 6 30 20% 1.43 8.38 28%
70 7 50 14% 1.00 18.00 36%
75 8 54 15% 1.06 -11.75 -22%

Headgear Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
43 294 15% 1.04 57.80 20%
Blinkers 7 50 14% 1.00 -12.25 -25%
Visor 3 31 10% 0.69 -6.50 -21%

SP Pos Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
1 18 53 34% 2.42 1.80 3%
2 6 45 13% 0.95 -16.25 -36%
3 9 34 26% 1.89 22.00 65%
4 9 46 20% 1.40 30.50 66%
5 1 40 3% 0.18 -33.00 -83%
6 4 36 11% 0.79 27.00 75%
7 2 32 6% 0.45 -2.00 -6%

SP Range Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
Fancied 16 54 30% 2.11 -5.95 -11%
Moderate 17 80 21% 1.52 10.50 13%
Not Fancied 20 244 8% 0.58 31.50 13%

SP Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
2/1 to 9/2 19 82 23% 1.65 -2.75 -3%
5/1 to 9/1 14 87 16% 1.15 14.50 17%
10/1 to 18/1 8 95 8% 0.60 13.00 14%
20/1+ 4 94 4% 0.30 13.00 14%

The above tables show how much punters are 'giving away' in prices. The ROI's are not decreasing in line with the lower strike rates.

Last Ran Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
1 to 7 days 10 45 22% 1.58 42.50 94%
1 to 14 days 19 129 15% 1.05 0.18 0%
57+ days 15 118 13% 0.91 32.75 28%

Weight Pos Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
1 8 39 21% 1.46 -8.75 -22%
2 6 41 15% 1.04 -12.37 -30%
3 10 43 23% 1.66 28.30 66%
4 7 40 18% 1.25 4.12 10%
5 8 38 21% 1.50 37.50 99%
6 4 37 11% 0.77 -0.25 -1%
7 3 43 7% 0.50 -19.50 -45%

Weight 1 Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
130lbs+ 18 93 19% 1.38 58.38 63%
120lbs to 129lbs 26 188 14% 0.99 -57.33 -30%
upto 119lbs 9 97 9% 0.66 35.00 36%

Allowance Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
0 lbs 38 249 15% 1.09 27.42 11%
3 lbs 1 44 2% 0.16 -41.12 -93%
5 lbs 10 54 19% 1.32 35.75 66%
7 lbs 4 31 13% 0.92 14.00 45%

Distance Wins Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
0 32 259 12% 0.88 -0.75 0%
1 12 74 16% 1.16 10.25 14%

Course Wins Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
0 32 264 12% 0.86 -5.13 -2%
1 8 58 14% 0.98 17.25 30%

CD Wins Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
0 40 313 13% 0.91 -10.75 -3%
1 8 40 20% 1.43 31.75 79%

Month Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
November 21 135 16% 1.11 9.12 7%
December 13 110 12% 0.84 0.18 0%
January 19 133 14% 1.02 26.75 20%

LTO Race Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
First time out 7 51 14% 0.98 -2.00 -4%
All Weather 33 241 14% 0.98 -15.32 -6%
Turf 13 86 15% 1.08 53.37 62%

Standard all weather 'rules of thumb' don't apply with low drawn horses. Even horses having their first run are winning more than they should.

Good Runs Last 3 Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
0 21 214 10% 0.70 -4.00 -2%
1 17 99 17% 1.22 30.62 31%
2 11 50 22% 1.57 -6.07 -12%

Class Change Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
Up 1 Class 7 55 13% 0.91 12.75 23%
Down 1 Class 8 72 11% 0.79 -11.32 -16%

Jockey Change Wins Runs Win% I.V. £1 Win ROI%
Same 22 135 16% 1.16 12.05 9%
Change 24 192 13% 0.89 26.00 14%
Change Pro to Pro 13 91 14% 1.02 18.50 20%
Change App to Pro 4 34 12% 0.84 6.50 19%
Change Pro to App 4 44 9% 0.65 -5.50 -13%

Conclusion

It is clear that low drawn runners are currently having a tremendous advantage. The above tables are the results of betting all 3 low drawn horses regardless of form, speed rating, jockey, trainer form etc. Overall a 10% profit has been achieved and you would have won 41% of races. Using dutching methods to apportion varying stakes onto each of the runners to obtain a level return should increase the profit.

Betting the lowest 3 drawn horses in handicap races would have returned nearly a 50% profit over the past 3 months. And if you just bet them in handicaps of 10 runners or less you would have won nearly 60% of them and returned a profit of 76%

Whilst the track is in its current state it looks a good bet stay with this draw bias phenomenon.

Related Articles and Resources


Data analysed 07-Nov-00 to 27-Jan-01. Article created 27-Jan-01. Stats may have changed since.

Comments on Lingfield Low Drawn


Add Comment or Ask Question

Show random avatar image with my comment

Which is the Royal Racecourse:
Ascot, Newmarket, York ?

Big Priced Winner! Top Rated Feeling Easy Wins 12/1 | Subscriptions just £35 a month or see special offers  Subscribe Today!