The number of bets is less than a Super Yankee / Canadian and yet the return will be much greater if you get all five winners
The Sweet Sixteen Bet
Last week an Each Way Yankee consisting of FlatStats top rated horses found four winners. This week a bet consisting of five horses found five winners.
The horses (again selected from the FlatStats value ratings) were placed in a Sweet Sixteen Multiple, which consists of the following bets:
- 10 Trebles
- 5 Fourfolds
- 1 Accumulator
This bet is preferable to a Super Yankee / Canadian (which also has 5 selections) if the selections are mostly short priced favourites. In this situation it is not worth placing doubles and thus the minimum bets will be the trebles. Of course you now need to have three winners for there to be a return, but if the odds are that short it is very likely that a return will be had.
This bet was placed on Betfair. They do not have a ready made ticket for a Sweet Sixteen so the trebles, fourfolds and accumulator were selected with a unit stake of £2.
This shows the odds return from the five horse accumulator (average level odds of 70.25) and the total return for the whole bet (£741.22), which includes the fourfolds and the trebles.
After deducting the stake the net profit for this bet on Betfair was £709.22. If the bet was placed in the bookies the net profit would have been £649.00. This gives a Betfair advantage over SP of around 9%.
The advantage is not that great for this particular bet because the Betfair SP of the individual horses was not that much greater than the bookies SP.
|Our Boy Jack||2.75||2.94||5%|
One of Betfair's advertising slogans is that "you get 20% better odds with Betfair". That may be true but it is an average, which can vary depending on the odds. Shorter priced runners such as the above will not have that much of an advantage. Horses priced in double figures will have an advantage much higher.
Sweet Sixteen Bets: Playing the Long Game
This is a good bet for favourites. The number of bets is less than a Super Yankee / Canadian and yet the return will be much greater if you get all five winners (1).
At this time of year with many small field races, consistent going and with the form settled down there will be plenty of favourites to choose from. Some of the favourites may be odds-on but don't be fooled into thinking odds-on = no value. A horse can be value whatever the odds say.
Why not Subscribe Today and start using the FlatStats ratings. You can use them to find value favourites. Just read the comments on the ratings page for favourites that are also top rated.
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(1) £2 Sweet Sixteen with five winners at SP returned £681. A comparable £1.23 Canadian returned £489.40. Returns do not include any all correct bonus, which some bookies may offer.
Article created 25-May-12. Stats may have changed since.