This is the Flatstats Favourites Stats analysis page. You can use this page to analyse favourites stats for flat turf races.
Favourite stats are one of the most important stats for horse racing. They can show you which races tend to be overbet by punters and which races are fairer.
You can examine favourite stats for any type of race such as Maiden Stakes, Handicaps, Group Races and Selling Races. Just set the form up of the required type of race and view the comprehensive stats report.
The report also displays a chart which shows the strike rate, profit, and value of favourites for the past 10 years. You can use this to see if there are any seasonal changes in the performance of favourites, e.g. favourites may win more races in the summer months when the going is firm, and the fields smaller, whilst in the autumn they may not have such a good strike rate.
How to use the Favourite Stats Reports
Basics
This page is used for generating reports on horse racing favourites. You generate a comprehensive report showing the full performance stats for the favourite in any type of race. See how well favourites perform better under different conditions such as at specific racecourse, or in different types of races.
Report Filter
You can either click Generate Report straight away to see the stats for all favourites in all races or you can filter the report by changing some of the options on the form.
e.g. If you wanted to find out the record of favourites in 3yo+ handicaps then set the form to filter for those types of races only.
Remove the checks for 2yo, 3yo and 3yo+ to just leave 3yo+ checked. Next uncheck the box for Stakes so that only Handicaps is checked. Doing this exactly as the image above shows will set the form to generate a favourites stats report for all 3yo+ handicaps on the flat turf.
The report is flexible in that you could if you wish dig deeper into the stats and select 3yo+ Handicap Sprints or Long Distance races. You can even do this on a course by course basis by selecting a specific course from the drop down list.
Other filters you may wish to set include the class of the race, the field size and the going. The fate of the favourite can be different under these different circumstances so it is wise to be more selective.
Beware of overfiltering. If you apply too many filters the sample size could become too low to be of any significance. Statements such as "3 favourites won from 8 races" can give the wrong impression. It is far better to find more similar races such that the results would be "30 favourites won from 80 races".
Generated Report
When you are ready to view the full stats for the favourite just click the Generate Report button. The report should open in a new window and show you comprehensive information about the favourite.
The report is split into 3 main sections: Filter Settings, Summary, and Detailed Stats.
Filter Settings: This shows any filters you have set up on the form. If you changed any of the form settings from the default then the information will be shown here. This section also shows the Date Range and Actual Date Range of the report where the date range is the date you selected (or the form default) and the actual range is the dates which the database found matching results.
Summary: This shows a quick overview of the favourite's stats. You can view basic infom such as the total wins, runs and strike rate, as well as the more important expected wins, A/E, and profits.
Expected Wins: the number of wins the favourite should have had based on the odds of all their runners
Total Earnings: the total win and place prize money earned
Earnings Per Start: the total earnings divided by the total runs - this can be used as a class indicator
Avg Win SP: the average odds of all the system's winners
Avg All SP: the average odds of all the favourite's runners
Max Winning Run and Max Losing Run: shows the number of consecutive winners and losers for the favourite.
Detailed Stats: This is the main part of the report which shows a break down of individual groups such as the record of the favourite over the past 10 years, at different courses, in different types of races, and with different prices etc.
The stats show:
Category: This is the stat being shown such as Class, Distance, Going, Field Size etc.
Item: This shows the individual stat item such as Group 1, 12f, Good to Form, Small Fields etc.
Wins, Runs, Win%, Plc%: Basic stats for the item including the strike rate (Win%) and the place strike rate (Plc%)
I.V.: This is the Impact Value stat. It is a measure of how much more or less an item is winning within it's category. e.g. If the Category is Gender and the item for Fillies shows an I.V. of 0.75 then fillies are winning less than their fair share of races.
A/E: This is the A/E value stat. It is a measure of how much over or under bet the item is - basically if the item is value or not. If a figure is more than 1.00 then the item has tended to be underbet by the public (it won more races than it was expected to), whilst if the figure is much lower than 1.00 then the item is not so good value.
£1Win, ROI%: These are the profit figures. The £1Win figure shows the total profit or loss from backing the item to a level £1 stake whilst the ROI% shows the return on investment or the profit / loss in percentage terms.
All stats are shown in colour where the colour is based on the the ROI% figure:
- 30% or more ROI
- more than -30% to less than 30% ROI
- -30% or worse ROI
If you still do not understand the stats terms such as ROI, IV, and A/E you may want to read our useful Guide to Horse Racing Stats
