Stats can sometimes identify false favourites, and if a favourite is false then the prices of the other runners must be good value

Horse Racing Form

It is not easy to find value if you are selecting horses using a form based method. The form horses in a race tend to be the most popular with the general public and that is why it is not easy to find value bets with form.

Each day thousands of punters choose horses because of form in some way. The masses will pick form horses because:

• They only see the last few form figures for a horse in their daily newspapers
• They read the race card comments - comments which are mostly derived from form
• They take in comments from newspaper columnists and racing channel pundits. Comments, again, mostly derived from form

Just listen to the tv pundits waffle on about Lucky Jim "running a good second in his last race at Newbury". Read the comments from Colonel Formmaster in your daily newspaper and see him write about "Super Sally returning to form". Both those channels of information have the power to influence a lot of punters forcing them to back the same horses.

Now what do you think is going to happen to the prices of those form horses? You are going to have a tough time finding value if you constantly back form horses.

Those form horses are generally going to be overbet and thus value will be thin on the ground. Note that it is not impossible to find value bets with form horses - it is just that much harder to find them.

Why Stats are better at Finding Value Bets

Stats are rarely used by the betting public so you can have an edge over other punters. Where stats are used by the general public they will tend to be basic stats such as number of wins, or strike rate, both of which have no value element to them. Stats such as the ROI% (return on investment), IV (Impact Value), and A/E (value stat) are all available on the Flatstats site and can give you much more useful information.

It is not uncommon for stats to uncover something special about a horse but as his form figures read '046' this will put off the masses and make the horse a juicy price.

Stats can sometimes identify false favourites, and if a favourite is false then the prices of the other runners must be good value.

e.g. Lucky Jim is the the 6-4 favourite.

But the stats are saying that the horse is turning out too quickly. His sire stats suggest that quick returning (running again a few days after his last race) is negative. The 16/1 outsider in the race is also quick returning (in fact both horses ran in the same race last time out). For this horse, however, the stats are good as the sire stats indicate that the 16/1 outsider could do really well after such a short break.

Now if the 16/1 wins the race with the favourite finishing unplaced the form punters will be calling foul and moaning that the 'game is bent' etc. The truth is that horses are not machines and unexpected changes in form can be explained by stats.

This is not fictitious. This happens quite often using stats - especially in Maiden Stakes races.

In Maiden Stakes races the form punters will be backing the Top Trainers "best filly" who finished 2nd last time. But checking the sire stats reveals that the distance is wrong and that trainer is using a jockey who rarely wins for the yard. Again, the stats can reveal a nice outsider which the form students could never pick by the book because the outsider has never run before!

But I want a mix of Horse Racing Form and Stats

If you prefer to use traditional form as well as stats then Flatstats is the perfect solution. Certainly go ahead and find contenders using your traditional method, but don't forget to check out the stats for the horse, sire, trainer and the jockey to see if there are any reasons why the horse may not win. Doing this could save you a lot of money in wasted bets.

Note that Flatstats also displays form for all the previous runs for each horse. The form information includes:

• Race Date
• Course
• Distance
• Class
• Race Details
• Finishing Position
• Finishing Distance
• Age, Weight, Headgear
• Jockey
• Allowance
• Draw
• Unique Flatstats Rating

This information is displayed in glorious colour. Wins are highlighted in blue, placed runs are indicated as green, unplaced runs are displayed in red.

Using colours this way shows when horses are in form and out of form. If you scroll down the form list to see earlier runs, you may be able to spot trends in a horses form. Is a blue always followed by a red? Does the horse need 2 or 3 greens before it makes a blue? In other words does the horse always lose after a win, or does he need to have 2 or 3 places before he is fit and ready to win.

Don't waste any more time. Sign up to flatstats today and start changing the way you bet for the better.

Related Articles and Resources

• Horse Form and Stats

Article created Apr-06. Stats may have changed since