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A Big Sky Brewing 1st 20/1 23-Apr Pontefract 4:10
A Big Sky Brewing had only run twice and had failed to place on both occassions. Punters saw the two duck eggs and assumed the horse had a slim chance of winning and was possibly 'brewing up' for a handicap win in a few runs time. Flatstats subscribers could see that this was actually a good bet today and they were rewarded with a win at 20/1.
| 4:10 | Subscribe Online at racinguk.tv Maiden Stakes | 6.0f |
| 15 run | 1st Prize £3886 3yo+ Class E | Good to Firm |
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The two main market fancies were both red rated and the average ratings for all the runners in the race was low. This indicated that the top rated horse had to be tremendous value and was worth backing despite the lack of form.
This was a maiden stakes race so the ratings would have given more weight to the sire stats. The sire of A Big Sky Brewing is one of the most value sires around and this is why A Big Sky Brewing was rated so highly.
Note that the ratings were so effective in this race that they even identified the straight forecast. The only two green rated runners finished 1-2 in the correct order!
Bookie Price Info: Opened 20/1, touched 22/1, SP 20/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 32.0, Lowest 19.5, Average 22.1
Fares 1st 14/1 14-Apr Lingfield 2:45
Fares fooled form punters but Flatstats followers knew this top rated horse was an outstanding bet.
| 2:45 | betdirect.com International Trial Stakes Listed | 8.0f |
| 7 run | 1st Prize £14763 3yo Class A | Standard |
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The two main market fancies were both red rated and were both making their all weather debuts. Form punters made the mistake of relying on the turf form for both horses, but they should have checked the sire stats first. If they had done so they would have realised the market leaders were false favourites and bad value bets.
Top rated Fares had better sire stats, had proven himself on Polytrack, and had a value jockey on board and won at a great price.
Bookie Price Info: Opened 14/1, steady, SP 14/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 22.0, Lowest 15.5, Average 18.3
Hucking Heat 1st 10/1 23-Mar Lingfield 4:15
The three main market leaders were all red rated so it was very clear that a value bet could be had in this race. Well clear and 'blue' rated Hucking Heat was a standout bet despite drifting significantly on Betfair.
| 4:15 | Pontins Holidays Handicap | 8.0f |
| 11 run | 1st Prize £2915 3yo Class E | Standard |
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Hucking Heat had value written all over him. The sire Desert Sun is one of the best on the all weather, the trainer was the third best for this race, and jockey George Baker offers tremendous value.
Form punters could only see that Hucking Heat had run twice on the all weather and failed to place. But punters using Flatstats could see that today the conditions were perfect with the right race for this horse and a very decent jockey onboard.
Bookie Price Info: Opened 9/1, drifted to 12/1, SP 10/1 (market reformed after a withdrawal)
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 23.0, Lowest 9.4, Average 13.0
Cherri Fosfate 1st 50/1 23-Mar Wolverhampton 3:30
In this handicap race the favourite was a filly and odds-on in the betting. Those are key indicators that there is value in this race and Flatstats subscribers found the value by backing the top rated selection Cherri Fosfate.
| 3:30 | pontinsbingo.com Handicap | 8.5f |
| 8 run | 1st Prize £3886 3yo Class E | Standard |
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Cherri Fosfate was top rated because he was a male, had the second best value trainer in the race and the best value jockey. As only two horses were green rated it was pretty clear that this race was not that competitive value-wise and thus a confident bet could be made.
Bookie Price Info: Opened 12/1, drifted to 16/1, backed into SP 10/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 21.0, Lowest 10.5, Average 13.8
Theatre Groom 1st 50/1 12-Feb Wolverhampton 3:30
Form punters were put off backing Theatre Groom because most of his runs were over jumps and on his only flat run he was unplaced. Flatstats subscribers could see that the horse had the ability to win this because of the good rating.
| 3:30 | Pontins Book Early Maiden Stakes | 12.0f |
| 9 run | 1st Prize £2817 4yo+ Class E | Standard |
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Theatre Groom was top rated because of the great value of the sire and the jockey in this race. Jockey George Baker really is a jockey to follow over longer distances and this is what the Flatstats ratings can pick up on.
The favourite was odds-on and a filly but did have a good rating so the best bet for this race was to back the top rated selection each way.
Bookie Price Info: Opened 33/1, drifted, SP 50/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 119.0, Lowest 23.0, Average 67.8
Dolzago 1st 33/1 29-Jan Lingfield 2:50
Top rated Dalzago was totally unfancied on the exchanges but demolished the opposition by winning by four lengths. The Flatstats ratings showed that Dalzago was a value bet whilst the majority of punters could only see the duck eggs in his form and were put off from backing him.
| 2:50 | pontins.com Handicap | 16.0f |
| 12 run | 1st Prize £2389 4yo+ Class F | Standard |
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This was a race for horses aged 4yo and older so the ratings would have homed in on the performance of the horse, the trainer and the jockey. Dalzago had the best earnings per start in the race, the best value trainer and the best value jockey and that is why he was clear top rated.
The front two in the betting were red rated so a big priced winner was expected in this race.
Bookie Price Info: Opened 33/1, steady, SP 33/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 85.0, Lowest 48.0, Average 60.4
Positive Profile 1st 33/1 28-Jan Wovlerhampton 3:00
The name of this horse could not have been more apt as his profile stats were indeed positive for this race. Despite having had a poor run last time out the Positive Profile's overall record pointed to a win at a big price in this race.
| 3:00 | pontinsbingo.com Handicap | 14.0f |
| 7 run | 1st Prize £3071 4yo+ Class E | Standard |
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Positive Profile was the only green rated runner in this race whilst all the others (including the two market leaders) were red rated. This pointed to a standout bet as only one horse offered great value and all the others offered poor value.
This example further demonstrates why form can put you off backing a horse. Positive Profile ran a stinker last time out but that was his first run for two years, and his first run on the all weather for four years. Punters clearly assumed that the horse had gone in the game and that his previous excellent record (5 wins and 9 places from 11 runs!) accounted for nothing. Flatstats punters could see that the horse was worth backing today because the race conditions were good and the opposition had no value at all.
Bookie Price Info: Opened 25/1, drifted out, SP 33/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 65.0, Lowest 18.0, Average 35.9
Dodaa 1st 18/1 28-Dec Southwell 1:40
A good 1-2 for the ratings with Top rated Dodaa beating 2nd top rated Bold Love.
| 1:40 | pontins.com Tri-Banded Stakes | 6.0f |
| 10 run | 1st Prize £1877 3yo Class H | Standard |
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The two main market leaders were both red rated so this indicated that this is a race where a big priced winner is likely. The Flatstats ratings indicated that Dodaa was the value bet whilst form punters could never have considered the horse. The Flatstats ratings were proved right with Dodaa winning at odds of 18/1.
Bookie Price Info: Opened 18/1, touched 20/1, SP 18/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 29.0, Lowest 22.0, Average 24.7
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