How To Use Sire Stats
Lightly raced horses and horses which are trying something new for the first time (such as new distance, running on a going it has not experienced before) will not give you any clues as to how well it will run in the future. The form book will be blank and punters can only guess if a horse will be suited to conditions it has not experienced before.
In this situation sire stats can be very useful as the combined data from the brothers and sisters of a horse can help indicate if that horse will be suited to a particular condition.
In order to analyse data from the brothers and sisters of a horse the sire stats are analysed. These are not stats from the results of the sire itself, but stats from the results of the offspring of the sire.
Some of the best sire stats to use are:
- Going Stat
- First Time Out and Lay Off Stat
- Age Stat
- Course Shape / Features
Some sires have strong biases to a particular going such as firmish or softish. This has been pointed out previously with sires such as Singspiel(IRE) who's progeny show a distinct improvement when running on firm ground.
The last ran stat (such as first time out, or lay off) is very useful - especially for races such as the Brocklesby which usually has a field of totally unraced 2yos!
Some sires can produce horses which win first time out whilst others such as Groom Dancer have never had a first time out winner from 150 starters in the past 10 years.
Another good example is Selkirk. In a previous newsletter it was noted that Selkirk first time out horses who were in the first three in the betting had a very poor record. Six years later the stats are still the same as the following table shows.
Sire Selkirk Runners First Time Out, First 3 In The Betting
In general, first time out horses who are in the first three in the betting win around 18.8% of the time and return a loss of 16.8%. But if the horse is sired by Selkirk the strike rate is much lower and the loss greater.
The key stat to note is the A/E stat. In this example the figure is 0.65 which shows that Selkirk first time out runners, even those who are at the top of the market, are bad value bets and should be avoided.
The age stat is another important stat. Some sires produce early winners, but the performance of their offspring deteriorates with ages. Other sires produce offspring which tend to be green, immature, and only show their full potential when 3yo or 4yo or older.
Course Shape / Features
Racecourses in this country are very diverse. Some are totally flat surfaced whilst others have undulations. Some have tight turns whilst others have longs sweeping bends. And of course, some are left handed whilst others are right handed.
A horse may have run well at a flat, galloping course like York but will it be able to show the same form at Goodwood which is a right handed, stiff, undulating course? In a 2yo race at Brighton how can you tell which horse is likely to cope with the left handed, stiff, undulating course?
Again sire stats are very useful here. There will be plenty of data to analyse from the sires offspring and this information can be used to determine if a horse will be suited to a particular course.
One example of a course direction bias is with sire Auction House(USA). This sires offspring have recorded a 7.2% strike in races on straight or left handed courses. But on right handed courses his offspring have never won from 93 starts!
If you look at the all weather stats for sire Auction House(USA) you will see similar stats. At the left handed tracks of Lingfield, Southwell and Wolverhampton Auction House runners hit a strike rate of 6.8%. At the right handed track at Kempton his runners have hit only 1.8% (2 wins from 109 starts). This clearly shows that his offspring have a problem running right handed.
You may think that direction biases are a load of tosh but remember: the great Desert Orchid had a direction bias which meant that he was only great at right handed courses!