How To Use Trainer Stats

20th Apr 2009
trainers / stats
Article is over 3 years old. Stats may have changed since.

Examining trainer stats can show where and when a trainer does best at, and where or when a trainer is unlikely to win.

One of the best stats to look at for trainers is the season stat. This stat can show when a trainer is likely to 'hit form' and when the trainer is likely to go through a lean period, where winners will be few and far between.

A good example of the season stat can be seen with trainer Sir Mark Prescott. He has one of the strongest season biases of all trainers.

Racehorse Trainer Sir Mark Prescott Season Stats

Season Win% I.V. A/E ROI%
Spring 12.0% 0.54 0.61 -9.2%
Summer 27.6% 1.25 1.02 -1.7%
Autumn 15.9% 0.72 0.94 -29.4%

Notice the huge jump in strike rate in the summer months, and look at it drop back again in the autumn.

This is really confusing for form punters for two reasons. Firstly they will be hesitant about backing a Prescott horse which has had a few runs in the spring because it's form would be poor. This means that those horses would be underbet in the summer. Secondly they would tend to overbet Prescott horses in the autumn as some of those runners would have been running in the summer and thus have good form!

Note that some resources suggest looking at trainer stats on a month by month basis. It is much better to look at a season, or a 2/3 month block though as a month is too short a timescale to analyse, and because training plans can have set backs for many reasons.

e.g. A Trainer may show a bias to winning in May. His stats may show a greater than usual strike rate and a decent profit for this month over the years. This year could be the same in that the trainer may have plans to target May again. But what if his string are not ready? What if he had a training set back? What if there was unusual wet weather which has caused the going to be unpredictable this May?

Other Useful Trainer Stats

It is always worthwhile check stats based on the starting price such as the position in the betting. For this stat you can examine a specific position in the betting such as favourite, or 2nd favourite or just look at a price range such as fancied / top 3rd in the betting.

There are many examples of trainers who win when their horse is fancied but rarely place with their outsiders. Of course, there are some trainers who have the opposite stats. Some are overbet with fancied runners and some are profitable for backing with their outsiders.

Other stats to use for trainers include the race type such as handicaps or stakes. Some trainers are really good at winning in maiden stakes races whilst others need to give their horses time to run in such races before targetting a nice handicap race.

Some trainers are very good at races such as claiming and selling races. They have a nack of finding the right weight / claiming price to attract potential buyers in a claiming race, or know the right time to offload a horse in a seller.

The distance stat is another great stat to use for trainers. There are many examples of trainers specialising in specific distance ranges. This can be trainers who tend to do well with younger horses / sprinters, and trainers who tend to do well with older horses / long distance runners. A good example of this is Dandy Nicholls who is invariably a sprint trainer.

Racehorse Trainer D Nicholls Distance Stats

Distance Range Win% I.V. A/E ROI%
Sprints 9.8% 1.03 0.90 -13.1%
Middle 8.7% 0.91 0.76 -38.7%
Long 5.1% 0.53 0.48 -46.0%

The longer the distance the lower Nicholls' strike rate and the bigger the loss returned from backing his runners. Notice the A/E 'value' stat. This is drops quite significantly as the distance increases.

Nicholls only sends out about 15 long distance (12f+) runners a year but they should be avoided as they are very poor value! He does send out many in the middle distance range though and the stats show that they are poor value too.

If you want to examine trainer stats you can view the free sample Trainer Stats page and generate some reports.

Why not Join FlatStats today? Subscribers can examine the full stats for trainers and also create alerts for them too!

Article created 20-Apr-2009. Stats may have changed since.

How To Use Trainer Stats

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