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Jockeys in Tight Finishes

Most punters have an opinion on how strong a jockey is in a finish. Some would say that A Jockey is strong, whilst B Jockey is weak. Usually these ideas are born out of prejudice, or by bad experience, where a punter self perpetuates an opinion because he or she has had a few bets go wrong.

The tight finish tables may surprise some punters because the stats show that some top name jockeys are weak, whilst lesser known jockeys including apprentices and female jockeys are stronger. A good example is this statement:

Kirsty Milczarek is a better jockey in a tight finish than Ryan Moore

Say that in a bookies, pub or on a message board and the majority of punters will laugh at you. But the truth is that this is perfectly true. In a tight finish Kirsty Milczarek has a better record than top jockey Ryan Moore.

Look at the Turf or All Weather tables via the links below and you will see that Kirsty Milczarek has a tight finish ratio around 1.30 (at time of writing), which means that she wins more tight finish races than she loses. Ryan Moore's ratio is more near 0.85 and this means that he tends to finish second more often than first in a tight finish race.

Betting Strategies for Tight Finishes

There is no system as such that you can create from the tables but they are useful if you think a race is competitive and that it may go to the wire. In this case look for your jockey's ratio and compare it with the ratio of the jockey who you think is riding a danger horse to yours. If your jockey has a higher ratio then you can be a bit more confident that your horse would prevail if the race ended up in a tight finish.

Look at the Racecourses table to find out which courses are more likely to produce close finishes. You can use this information to create an in-running strategy as it is quite likely that races at courses with high ratios will finish in a bunch.

Best and Worst Jockeys for Winning Races in Tight Finishes


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