This is the Flatstats Laying Systems analysis page. You can use this page to analyse laying horse racing systems for flat turf races.
How to use the Laying Systems Reports
Basics
This page is used for generating reports on precreated laying systems. You can browse a laying system and see a comprehensive report showing the full performance stats for the system. You can even tweak this page to see if the laying system would perform better under different conditions such as class of race, going condition, or age of horse etc.
Choose a Laying System
The are dozens of laying systems which you can view. To make finding a system easier the systems are split into categories such as Form, Last Time Out, Trainer etc. First choose a category and then choose one of the systems from the second drop down list. e.g. If you choose Category Favourites you will see laying systems based on favourites such as Filly Favourites, Front 3 in Handicap Sprints , and Lay All 1st Favs.
Private Datasets
If you wish to create your own private laying system which is not available to any other Flatstats subscriber or visitor you can request that a private dataset is created. In order to create a private system you need to send us the rules of the system, we will generate a dataset of results from those rules and provide you with a unique code which you can use to access the results of the system.
Report Options
There are various options you can choose for the report:
Detailed Analysis: It is possible to show a detailed analysis of the system which shows a breakdown of all the main stats of the system such as by time of year, race class, distance range etc.
Chart: The chart shows the strike rate and profitability of the system over time.
Staking Plans: This shows the results of backing the system using various basic staking plans. You can also use this section to change the type of bet and exchange parameters.
Risk Stake will generate a report where you risk £1 on a horse. If the horse is priced at 4/1 then your risk is £1 to win 25p. Aim to Win stake risks £4 to win £1.
Commission rate is the amount taken off any profit. If you set this to 5% and then the profit returned be reduced by 5p in the pound.
You can choose to use the Betfair SP or a Fixed Percentage Overprice.
Betfair SP: As the Betfair SP has only been available since May 2008 some of the reports will be truncated if you use data before that time. e.g. Laying favourites for the past 10 years. If you chose Betfair SP then only results since May 2008 will be shown. If you choose fixed overpricing then the report will show the full 10 years worth of results.
Fixed Percentage Overprice: This allows you to choose how much the SP should be adjusted by to compensate for the extra price layers offer on the exchanges. As it is not possible to lay at bookies SP on the exchanges the price of all contenders needs to be increased by a certain percentage. The reason for this is because layers on the exchanges have to offer prices better than the SP in order to attract bets. e.g. If a horse is Evens then the lay price may be 2.25. The reports will overprice that SP from Evens to rouhgly 5/4 as this would be more like the price layed on the exchange.
Fixed percentage will apply the same overpricing regardless of the SP. If you tend to lay all your bets at 20% above SP then choose this figure.
You can read more about overpricing in the Support Feature - What Is Overpricing?
Generate Runners List: This will generate a spreadsheet type table of all contenders of the system. You can also download this list in csv format for viewing in a spreadsheet.
Report Filter
You can either click Generate Report straight away to see all the stats for your selected system or you can filter the report by changing some of the options on the form.
The report options consist of check boxes which you can use to include or exclude criteria, drop down boxes which you can use to select ranges of numbers, and entry boxes you can use to type in specific ranges such as the SP.
When filtering a report it is best not to be too specific else the number of results returned may be too low to produce a meaningful report. If the report returns insufficient data then you may want to widen your search to include more races.
e.g. If you want to find out how well a particular system does in the summer months then select July to August, if you want find out how well the system does in 2yo races then select 2yo races only.
Generated Report
When you are ready to view the full stats for the system just click the Generate Report button. The report should open in a new window and show you comprehensive information about the system.
The report is split into 4 main sections: Heading Info, Filter Settings, Summary, and Detailed Stats.
Heading Info: This shows the name of the system and the core rules used to generated the system. e.g. The 4 Day Winners System has the following rules: "Won last time out on turf within 4 days".
Filter Settings: This shows any filters you have set up on the form. If you changed any of the form settings from the default then the information will be shown here.
Summary: This shows a quick overview of the laying system's stats. You can view basic infom such as the total wins, runs and strike rate, and profits. Note that the Win% or strike rate for laying systems shows the 'winning lay' strike rate. If you have a system which out of 100 races correctly identified that 80 horses would lose then the strike rate (or Win%) is 80%.
Max Winning Run and Max Losing Run: shows the number of consecutive winners and losers for the laying system.
Detailed Stats: This is the main part of the report which shows a break down of individual groups such as the record of the system for each of the past 10 years, in different classes of race, in different types of races, with different prices and much more.
The stats show:
Category: This is the stat being shown such as Class, Distance, Going, Field Size etc.
Item: This shows the individual stat item such as Group 1, 12f, Good to Form, Small Fields etc.
Wins, Runs, Win%, Plc%: Basic stats for the item including the strike rate (Win%) and the place strike rate (Plc%).
I.V.: This is the Impact Value stat. It is a measure of how much more or less an item is winning within it's category. e.g. If the Category is Gender and the item for Fillies shows an I.V. of 0.75 then fillies are winning less than their fair share of races.
£1Win, ROI%: These are the profit figures. The £1Win figure shows the total profit or loss from backing the item to a level £1 stake whilst the ROI% shows the return on investment or the profit / loss in percentage terms.
All stats are shown in colour where the colour is based on the the ROI% figure:
- 30% or more ROI
- more than -30% to less than 30% ROI
- -30% or worse ROI
If you still do not understand the stats terms such as ROI, IV, and A/E you may want to read our useful Guide to Horse Racing Stats
