Flatstats Newsletter - April 2009
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| 3yo Maiden Stakes, Trainer Alert, Latest Articles, Sire Alert, Daily Stats |
| Introduction |
In this issue |
Have you seen the new Flatstats website?
A lot of changes have been made to the Flatstats site since last season. If you have not visited us for a while I think you will be pleased with the changes we have made.
The site has a new look and many new features have been added. One of the most useful features is the new comments on the ratings page. Previously you had to make your own assessment of a race but now you can read useful pointers for the top rated and for the favourite!
There are many other changes such as the new daily stats page which you can read more about in this newsletter.
Have a great start to the 2009 turf season!
Stephen Mainwaring
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• 3yo Maiden Stakes
• Trainer Alert
• Latest Articles
• Sire Alert
• Daily Stats Page
• Join Flatstats
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| Feature Article - 3yo Maiden Stakes |
"The first three in the betting win 79% of all 3yo maiden stakes races"
Analysing stats for 3yo maiden stakes races shows some strong biases for gender and for position in the market. Colts are winning many more races than fillies or geldings and the favourite has a much better record than the average of all favourites.
| 3yo Maiden Stakes Gender |
| Gender | Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| Colt | 15.1% | 0.92 | £-1232.55 | -23.8% |
| Filly | 8.7% | 0.79 | £-3562.20 | -41.9% |
| Gelding | 6.2% | 0.80 | £-2019.62 | -32.7% |
Colts are nearly twice as likely to win this type of race than a filly; geldings are the worst performers.
| 3yo Maiden Stakes Betting Market Position |
| SP Pos | Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| 1st Fav | 43.7% | 0.98 | £-31.25 | -1.8% |
| 2nd Fav | 21.6% | 0.90 | £-162.85 | -9.2% |
| 3rd Fav | 13.7% | 0.89 | £-189.27 | -10.7% |
The first three in the betting win 79% of all 3yo maiden stakes races with the favourite winning more than 4 out of 10. Look at the ROI for the favourite: a 1.8% loss is generous and could easily be turned into a profit if you back it on the exchanges with their better than SP prices.
With 2 such strong stats what happens if we combine them? What are the results of backing a colt in 3yo maiden stakes race when he is the favourite?
| 3yo Maiden Stakes, Colt, Favourite |
| | Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| | 45.9% | 1.00 | £4.45 | 0.5% |
A slight profit is returned! 0.5% is not much but once again the betting exchanges can help increase that due to the extra prices you can often get.
If you want to make even higher profits you will have to slim down the list. You need to weed out false favourites or try and identify better value favourites.
At this time of year there will be some colts running in these races who have not run since last season. These will be colts having their first run of the year (FROY) and this group look to be profitable for following.
A big influence on the price is the last time out run - especially if it is recent. Media pundits will talk up that run, and it will be the first bit of data form punters will look at. If a recent run form horse is in the race then it is likely that a favourite which has not run since last season is probably going to be underbet and offer good value.
| 3yo Maiden Stakes, Colt, Favourite, FROY |
| | Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| | 50.2% | 1.12 | £29.51 | 13.9% |
If you are looking for a quick and easy system to use at the start of the flat turf - one which has a relatively high strike rate - then try this 3yo Maiden Stakes FROY system. There are only about 20 contenders a year with most of them appear in April and May.
You can view a dataset for the 3yo Maiden Stakes FROY System in the backing systems section of the site.
3yo Maiden Stakes FROY System: Back colts who are favourite and having their first run of the year (not first time out) in 3yo Maiden Stakes races
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| Trainer Alert |
Alan Swinbank - Sellers
Selling races are not the easiest of races to analyse. Form can be unreliable and breeding analysis is not as effective in this grade of race.
One useful tool you can use is trainer stats. Some trainers know how to get a horse right for a selling race and return decent profits. One such trainer is Alan Swinbank.
| G A Swinbank Turf Selling Races |
| Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| 26% | 1.46 | £39.39 | 55% |
Since 2001 Swinbank has had 19 wins from 72 runs in selling races. That is a strike rate of 26%. The profit returned is 55% and the important A/E 'value' figure is 1.46
Swinbank has not had many runners in selling races in the past 2 seasons but seems to be brewing up again as he has already had 2 runners in sellers in the first week of this flat season.
Create an alert for G A Swinbank in Selling Races and be notified when he has a runner in a selling race.
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| Latest Articles |
Kempton High Draw Bias
Kempton is showing a strong draw bias to high numbers in some races. Over the winter you could have landed many forecast and Tote Swinger bets just backing high drawn runners.
Kempton Draw Bias
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| Sire Alert |
Singspiel - Firm Going
Some sires show a strong preference for a particular going. Some will produce runners who excel on soft going whilst others will produce runners who will show better form on firmer ground.
Singspiel is a sire with a strong bias towards firm ground. His runners are nearly 3 times more likely to win on firmer ground than on softer ground:
| Firm, Good to Firm |
| Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| 17% | 1.17 | £136.32 | 18% |
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| Good to Soft, Soft, Heavy |
| Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| 6% | 0.53 | £-258.21 | -62% |
The strike rate could be higher on firmer ground due to those races often having smaller field sizes but look at the other stats in the table.
Singspiel runners on firmish ground returned a profit of £136.32 (18% ROI%) whilst on softish ground they returned a loss of £-258.21 (-62% ROI%).
Most of the profits were from following Singspiel runners when the going was described as 'firm' only. Just backing his runners on firm only ground hit a strike rate of 27% and returned a crazy profit of 110%!
Why not create an alert for Singspiel Runners on Firm Ground and be notified for this profitable betting angle.
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| Daily Stats Page |
"This is a big time saver - especially on a day when there are six meetings!"
If you are stuck for ideas and need some statistical inspiration then you could take a look a the new Flatstats Daily Stats page. This is a page which lists some unusual stats most of which you will not find in a daily newspaper. The stats could help you uncover a few nice priced winners.
The daily stats page shows tables for the following categories:
- Trainer and Jockey Combinations
- Change in Trainer
- Trainers for Profit last 28 Days
- Jockeys for Strike Rate last 28 Days
- Horse and Jockey Combinations
- Last Time Out Winning Distances
- Course and Distance Winners
- Highest Earners
- Horse most Days Since a Win
- Biggest Class Droppers
- Quick Returners / Lay Off Runners
I am sure you will agree there is something there for everyone! If you like to follow trainers or jockeys you can now instantly see the best trainer and jockey combinations, or the most profitable trainers, or jockeys with the best recent strike rates. All this information is in table format so you can see the best and worst.
The daily stats page was created in response to some questions I am frequently asked. Questions such as:
Q. Which horse running today won by the biggest margin last time out? This can now be answered by looking at the Last Time Out Winning Distances table. The table shows all last time out winners running today and the corresponding winning distance, the change in class, and the days since last ran. You can use this info to find out which horse had it the easiest last time out and which horse only just scraped home last time but is up in class today!
Q. Who is the classiest horse running today? That depends on how you define class but one way is to rank all the runners by their earnings per start figure. This is a figure which adds up all their win and place money earnings and divides it by their total number of runs. It is a quick and easy way to find the classiest horses in the race.
Q. I have a system based on horses running within 4 days. How can I find out which horses are returning quickly without having to look at all the last ran figures in the paper? The Quick Returners table will show all horses running within the past 7 days. The table is ranked by the last ran figure so you can see all horses who ran 1, 2, 3 etc. days ago at the top of the table. This is a big time saver - especially on a day when there are six meetings!
If you do need some pointers each day then take a look at the new Daily Stats Page.
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Flat Racing Sunday
1 Meeting, 6 Races, 52 Horses
| Kempton |
| 2:05 2:35 3:10 3:40 4:10 4:40 |
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