| Introduction |
In This Issue |
Did you know that some jockeys and trainers have extremely low strike rates? Not low strike rates of 10% but extremely low strike rates of just 1%! This newsletter gives some examples of extreme strike rates and shows you how you can identify them and thus avoid backing horses with slim chances of winning.
Any system or method can endure long losing streaks from time to time. Knowing when they will happen is impossible to know but it is possible to calculate how long a losing streak you can expect. Once you know that information it is easier to stay calm and ride out the quiet times.
With the all weather season starting soon there will be many opportunities for laying overbet fillies and mares! Punters are still overbetting these genders despite them being very much disadvantaged at this time of year.
Have a great start to the 2009 All Weather season!
Stephen Mainwaring
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• Extreme Strike Rates
• Trainer Alert
• Latest Articles
• Fillies on the All Weather
• Long Losing Streaks
• Join Flatstats
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| Featured Article - Extreme Strike Rates |
"Horses sired by Observatory have a big problem if they are rested for 2 months or more. They are just not race fit after a long lay off and need the run."
Would you back a horse ridden by a jockey with a 1% strike rate? Would you back a horse trained by a trainer with a 2% strike rate? You may say no but you probably have done so many times this year without even knowing about it.
These are extreme strike rates that can be found nearly everyday. They are strike rates for jockeys and trainers in race conditions in which they are totally not suited to and yet punters will back horses ridden or trained by them without knowing the true facts.
A few weeks ago jockey Steve Carson faced criticism from armchair jockey punters over his ride on Mr Plod at Kempton. Those punters also criticised ex-jockey / media pundit Dale Gibson for defending a senior jockey. If only those punters realised that Carson has a problem with right handed courses they may have not backed him and thus not criticised his ride or Gibson's comments!
Carson does indeed have a problem with right handed courses. His strike on courses with a left hand turn is 7.3% whilst on courses with a right hand turn his record is just 3.5%
At Kempton (where all races incorporate a right hand turn) Carson's strike rate is extreme. He has only ever had 2 wins from 144 rides, which equates to a strike rate of just 1.4%.
| S Carson Course Direction Stats |
| Course / Direction | Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| Left Handed | 7.3% | 0.80 | £-432.57 | -27.4% |
| Right Handed | 3.5% | 0.45 | £-496.29 | -63.6% |
| Kempton (AW) | 1.4% | 0.17 | £-117.00 | -81.2% |
Clearly Carson has a course direction bias. This may sound absurd but is it more absurd than a horse having a direction bias? Even Desert Orchid had a direction bias!
On the 19th of October there was a bit of a gamble on Mr Money Maker at Windsor. This horse was trading in double figures overnight but by 10am the horse was backed as low as 11/4. The horse was unplaced and punters were scratching their heads as to why this hotly tipped horse did not run as expected to.
The reason for the poor run can be explained by the sire stats. Mr Money Maker was making his racecourse debut and the First Time Out stat for his sire (Ishiguru) was extremely low - just 1.8%.
| Ishiguru(USA) First Time Out Stats |
| Last Ran | Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| First Time Out | 1.8% | 0.28 | £-53.00 | -93% |
Every week there are many instances of extremely low strike rates like Carson right handed and Ishiguru first time out. Here are a few more you may want to look out for:
- D Nicholls Long Distances: 3.9% strike rate, 0.35 A/E, 59% loss
Dandy Nicholls is a sprint trainer. The longer the distance of a race the less likely he is to have a winner. He only has about 20 long distance runners a year but punters still back them. A quarter of them are fancied but rarely win. On the all weather Nicholls has never had a long distance winner from 51 starts!
- J L Dunlop FTO in the Autumn: 1.8% strike rate, 0.29 A/E, 61% loss
John Dunlop is not renowned for getting a horse fit to win first time out. In the autumn though he has an even poorer record with FTOs.
- J M Bradley Maiden Stakes: 2.0% strike rate, 0.58 A/E, 65% loss
Milton Bradley rarely wins a maiden stakes race and yet 8% of his runners are run in such a race.
- K Fallon Group 1 Sprints: 0 wins from 31 runs past 10 years
Kieren Fallon exhibits a slight bias towards longer distances in general. But in Group 1 races Fallon has a real problem if the race is a sprint. Read more about Kieren Fallon in Group 1 Sprints.
- Observatory(USA) Long Lay Off: 3.4% strike rate, 0.33 A/E, 59% loss
Horses sired by Observatory have a big problem if they are rested for 2 months or more. They are just not race fit after a long lay off and need the run.
All the strike rates are low and more significantly the A/E 'value' figures are low. The figures show that if you back a horse trained, ridden, or sired by one of the above with those specific conditions it is unlikely you will win and it is unlikely the horse will be a value bet.
You can find many more stats like this quickly and easily with the Flatstats Stats Tables. To show you how easy it is to find extreme strike rates you may want to read the tutorial on Using the Flatstats Horse Racing Stats Tables.
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| Trainer Alert |
D Nicholls - Claiming Stakes Class Droppers
Using the Flatstats Stats Tables you can quickly find out which trainers are the best for specific races such as a Claiming Stakes. If you look at the Turf Stats Tables and filter for Claiming Stakes races you will find one trainer stands out for this type of race: Dandy Nicholls.
Nicholls has had more wins and has the highest strike rate of all trainers. He also returns a level stakes profit and has a 'value' A/E figure.
| D Nicholls Claiming Stakes Races |
| Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| 23% | 1.04 | £6.51 | 2% |
That is not a bad record but the figures can be bettered if you dig deeper into the stats. Obviously Nicholls being a sprint trainer we should just look at races of less than 8f. Another stat, which stands out, is the Class Dropping stat. This is something Nicholls has mastered over the years - he has a knack of dropping a horse into a claiming race and returning decent profits.
| D Nicholls Claiming Stakes Class Dropping Sprints |
| Win% | A/E | £1 Stk | ROI% |
| 29% | 1.16 | £26.65 | 25% |
That is a much better result and one that is more reliable for backing.
Those results are for the turf but Nicholls also has a good record on the all weather. In the earlier years he did not do this trick so effectively but in the past few years his Claiming Stakes Class Dropping Sprinters have hit strike rates of 30%+ and returned crazy profits.
Create an alert for D Nicholls Claiming Stakes Class Droppers and be notified when he has a runner in a claiming race. Just load up his stats on the Trainer Stats page, set the form to show:
Claiming Stakes
Sprints
Class Change
Same [ ] Up [ ] Down [X]
and be alerted whenever Nicholls has a horse in such a race.
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| Latest Articles |
Random Horse Racing Systems
In racing it is easy to be fooled by randomness. This article discusses nonsense systems that produce random results and yet some punters see pound signs.
Random Horse Racing Systems
Kieren Fallon Returns Racing
Identifying good and bad stats for Kieren Fallon. Did you know he has never won a Group 1 Sprint in the past 10 years?
Kieren Fallon Returns Racing
Where Can I Find? Racemeeting Information
A new feature introduced this year to help system punters identify the best meetings or races of the day, jockeys who have the most rides or just one ride etc.
Where Can I Find? Racemeeting Information
Horse Racing Stats Tables
A tutorial on how to use the Flatstats Stats Tables to identify the best and worst stats for jockeys, trainers, sires, owners and even sire / dam sire combinations!
Horse Racing Stats Tables
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| Fillies On the All Weather |
"Throughout the winter months males beat females by a ratio of around 1.55"
The clocks going back is a timely reminder to avoid female horse on the all weather!
This is something that has been known a long time on the Flatstats site: female horses are at a distinct disadvantage when racing against males on the all weather.
Of course this can be said of some turf races too but the clocks going back, and the shorter days makes it so much harder for females to win at this time of year.
The main reason for this is the way Nature regulates the breeding cyle.
Nature has a way of ensuring the equine breed survives. It will encourage horses to produce offspring at the optimum time so that they have a better chance of surviving. If a foal is born just at the start of winter it will struggle to survive; if the foal is born in the spring it has a better chance of surviving and growing on to be a yearling. Thus the optimum breeding cycle for northern hemisphere horses is the summer months.
The way nature does this is to make female horses more fertile in the summer months. Receptors in a horses' eye effect the pineal gland. The pineal gland will regulate the flow of the hormone Melatonin. During peak daylight hours in the summer the levels of Melatonin decrease and this signals to the female that it is the breeding season.
That is enough of the equine biology lesson now onto the stats!
| Females vs Males on the All Weather |
| Month | Male / Female Ratio |
| Sep | 1.18 |
| Oct | 1.30 |
| Nov | 1.52 |
| Dec | 1.55 |
| Jan | 1.58 |
| Feb | 1.59 |
| Mar | 1.64 |
| Apr | 1.29 |
| May | 1.39 |
This table shows the ratio of male to female winners in mixed gender races. In September a race with both genders will see males (colts, gendings and entire horses) win 1.18 more races than females (fillies and mares). As the days get shorter the ratio gets bigger but look at the big increase in November. This is just after the clocks have gone back.
Throughout the winter months males beat females by a ratio of around 1.55. In April - when the clocks to forward again the figure drops again.
Gender Systems
You can find many systems based on gender in the Backing Systems section of the site. There are also laying systems available too.
The best advice is to avoid fillies and mares when racing against males at this time of year. Look out for hot 'turf' fillies now running on sand rather than being put away for the winter. Many of them will not perform as expected!
Of course beware of any female which has beaten males recently as they may be able to win again. Females like that are probably the equine equivalent of the South African athelete Caster Semenya!
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| Long Losing Streaks |
"When Callan ended his long losing spell he won 7 races from his next 19 rides"
Neil Callan ended a long losing streak last week. Prior to his win on Orthology at Yarmouth last week his previous winner was on Hibaayeb - a month earlier on the 26th September.
Callan endured a long losing spell of 93 rides on turf and the all weather. 34 of those horses were 'fancied' in the market - to win on none of them is unusual ... or is it?
Unless there was something up with Callan such as an injury, or other problems then a losing streak like this can just about be expected. Looking at the Longest Losing Streak formula in the Q and A section and applying Callan's figures to that formula shows that a losing streak like this can happen now and again.
| N Callan Overall Turf and All Weather |
| Strike Rate | Avg Runs per Year |
| 12.3% | 1075 |
Callan wins 12.3% of the time and thus loses 87.7% of the time. The formula for the Longest Losing Streak is thus:
LOG(1075) / -LOG(0.877) = 53
Out of any sequence of 1075 runs (you could say in any calendar year) the longest losing streak for a 12.3% hitter like Callan is 53. This is much less than the 93, which Callan hit last month.
| N Callan Fancied Runners Turf and All Weather |
| Strike Rate | Avg Runs per Year |
| 21.0% | 468 |
With fancied runners (those in the top third of the betting) Callan wins 21.0% of the time and thus loses 79.0% of the time. The formula for the Longest Losing Streak is thus:
LOG(468) / -LOG(0.79) = 26
A losing run of 26 should be expected with Callan's fancied runners. During his lean spell last month he hit 34, which again is above what is expected!
Long losing spells can happen to Jockeys, Trainers, and Horses. It can also happen to Punters.
If your selection method is sound and you find yourself on a long losing spell you just have to sit it out. If you have accurate figures for number of runs analysed and strike rate you can calculate how long the losing streak is likely to be and just ride it out.
Most punters would give up too early on a system or betting method. They may bail out too early and thus miss out on many winners. When Callan ended his long losing spell he won 7 races from his next 19 rides: this is a strike rate of 37%!
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