Introduction
You will often read postings on message boards, and hear comments in the bookies about the merits of certain jockeys. Some say that A Jockey is 'weak in a finish', or B Jockey is 'strong' and 'one to have on your horse'. A lot of the time those postings and comments are just pockets talking. To see the truth take a look at the tables in this newsletter which show which jockeys are the strongest, and which are weak as a kitten.

Did you know there are only five weeks of the turf season left? Now is the time to start preparing for the all weather. With maximum sized fields, and changeable going on the turf, it is a good move to start concentrating on the forthcoming all weather season. Be prepared. Read the early season tips in this newsletter.

When was the last time you visited the Flatstats website? Have you noticed the changes since the last newsletter? The First thing to note is that the site has had a make over. A new logo, a new colour scheme, and a new menu structure makes the site more visually appealing. But under the surface you will find a whole lot more. Here are just some of the new features added to the site since the last newsletter:

• Enhanced Stats and System Reports with full graphs
• New Extra Stats information on all racecards
• New Horse and System Alert Feature

The new horse and system alert feature is well worth checking out. This is much more than just a basic horse alert / reminder feature. The Flatstats alerts feature allows you to enter the rules of a system and to be alerted if there are any contenders running!

This really is a useful addition to the site and it is proving very popular. How many times have you checked the results and realised that you had missed one of your system bets? Use the Flatstats alerts feature and you will never miss a good bet again!

 Horse and Systems Alert Feature Information

Stephen Mainwaring

Battling Jockeys
One way to distinguish between a good jockey and a bad jockey is to find out which are best in a tight finish. When two horses are neck and neck near the finish line the strength, skill, and sheer determination of one jockey will make him pass the winning line first.

The following table ranks jockeys by the number of winners they had to the number of losers to within a neck. The ratio is determined by dividing the number of wins by the number of non wins (losing within a neck). Any figure above 1.00 means that the jockey has won more tight finishes than he has lost and is thus a strong jockey in that situation. A figure less than 1.00 means that the jockey is weak, or just doesn't have the strength or guts to battle out a finish.

Top Five Jockeys in a Tight Finish

Right at the top of the table is Fran Ferris with a ratio of 2.54. Ferris has contested 46 tight finishes on the flat turf. He won 33 of those races and just lost out by within a neck in 13 of them. That is quite an achievement and shows how much of a strong, battling jockey Ferris is.

Other jockeys with positive ratios include K McEvoy 1.44, M J Kinane 1.32, S Whitworth 1.31, S W Kelly 1.28.

Those last two may surprise you. They are names often mentioned on message boards and in the bookies. Whatever you think of them they are good jockeys who can get the job done when it matters most.

Worst Five Jockeys in a Tight Finish

Worst jockey in a tight finish is David McCabe. He has had 36 close finishes but only won 11 of them.

Other jockeys who are weak in tight finishes include J Quinn 0.58, I Mongan, 0.69, and R L Moore 0.62

You are probably wondering how the top jockeys rank. Where are Dettori and Fallon etc? Dettori is 50th in the list (of 120 jockeys) with a ratio of 0.96. Fallon is in 36th place with a ratio of 1.07. One surprising ratio for a top jockey is 0.75 recorded against Seb Sanders. Sanders has had 382 battles. He was the victor 164 times but the loser 218 times.

What about female jockeys? How do they fare in the list? Are they really the weaker gender?

Lisa Jones ranks 55th with a ratio of 0.94. Note that she is just 5 positions away from Dettori. New golden girl of the moment Hayley Turner fares worse. Turner is 83rd in the list with a ratio of 0.83.

One real surprise amongst the ladies is the position of Kim Tinkler. Tinkler is ranked 24th with a ratio of 1.15. This is better than Fallon, Murtagh, and Dettori! Even though Tinkler does not get many winning rides she certainly gives it all she has got when she's on a live contender.

Watch out for races which are quite likely to end in a tight finish (see course summary box above or check Flatstats Race Stats feature). Ensure the jockey of your horse has a ratio of 1.00 or more else he could be beaten into second place.

 Full List of Jockeys in Tight Finishes

Derby Winners Offspring
Whilst analysing a race on the all weather recently I spotted an outsider sired by Silver Patriarch. Was this the same Silver Patriarch who battled with Benny The Dip in the 1997 Epsom Derby? The same Silver Patriarch who then went on to win the St Leger, The Coronation Cup and three more Group races after that?

Yes it was. So why is a horse sired by such a talented winner going off at 40/1 in a Class E Maiden on the all weather? Further analysis revealed that Silver Patriarch offspring have done well on the all weather: his 40 runners have had 7 wins which is a strike rate of 17.5%. One horse dominates the wins though. Party Boss is responsible for 6 of the 7 wins.

Checking Silver Patriarch's turf stats revealed something quite remarkable. Silver Patriarch's offspring have only ever had one win on turf!

Sire Silver Patriarch(IRE) 1 win from 109 runs, 0.9% strike rate

That's a pretty dismal record. In fact, you just about can't get any worse than that. Of 818 sires who had at least one winner on turf in the past 10 years Silver Patriarch ranks 816th based on strike rate. He is propped up by Silver Kite and Double Trigger - strangely enough another prolific group winner.

Whilst analysing Silver Patriarch's record I decided to check the record of all Derby winners and runners up offspring since 1990. Only those who had at least 30 runners on turf were analysed. The table shows the turf and the all weather record of their offspring.

The table shows that the performance of Derby winners and runners up as sires is a bit hit or miss. Some of them have performed well with their offspring whilst others have not.

Galileo is in his first season as a sire and is doing well so far. Of the 33 runs his offspring have had 6 won but interestingly all 6 wins were from 6 individual horses.

It is a bit sad to see such a poor performance on turf by Silver Patriarch. Maybe he will produce more horses like Party Boss and show that he can produce fine winners on the all weather.

All Weather Early Season Strategies
Late September through to early December can be a quite profitable time on the all weather. There are two situations which can be exploited.

The first is to exploit overbet turf form horses running on the all weather for the first time, the second is to look out for crazy prices on out of form horses also running on the all weather for the first time.

Laying Turf Form Horses
Some trainers will have fit and ready horses at this time of year. But they may not find suitable races on the turf. With a reduced number of races per week, big field sizes, and changeable going, some trainers may decide (or have no other option) to run their hot one on the sand.

But many trainers are left scratching their heads wondering why their hot one didn't win, and punters are cursing the game as the form horse sure thing trails in nearer last than first.

Take Summer Serenade as an example. On the 11th November last year she made her debut on the sand at Lingfield. She was the 7/2 favourite in this 15 runner race and came to the race in good form after placing twice on her two turf starts. Summer Serenade finished 10th in the race.

A couple of days later Golden Feather was in a similar situation. He was in a 12 runner race at Lingfield, he had good turf form figures of 3-102 and was thus the 4/6 favourite. In the race he was beaten by 17 lengths.

A week later Tharua was another 'hot turf horse' to flop as favourite on the sand.

The reasons for the failures are simple - the horses could just not handle the difference in surface. The sire stats showed this as did the Flatstats ratings.

Summer Serenade is by Saddler's Wells - a below average but overbet sire on the sand. Golden Feather is by Dr Fong - a well below average, and overbet sire on the sand. Tharua is by Indian Ridge - a sire who as of today has only had 2 wins from 53 runs on the all weather.

Clearly those three horses were tremendous value lays. Backers were overbetting the horses due to good turf form but they did not know about the weak sire stats. The same thing happens every year - punters just never learn!

Backing Cold Turf Horses
Looking at this from an opposite point of view you should be able to find some great bets from backing out of form turf horses running on sand for the first time. All you have to do is to find which ones could have the ability to win. The way to find that out is to check if the sire's offspring are good on the surface.

Take Alice Blackthorn as an example. On the 8th November last year she was running at Southwell in a 13 runner race. This was her first time on sand and as her form figures read 0044510-005000 she went off at 14/1. Alice Blackthorn won the race.

A few days later Spence Appeal ran on the sand for the first time. Whilst he was placed 2nd on his last start on turf punters were not impressed with the overall form figures of 0002 and sent him off at 10/1. He won the race.

Again, the reasons for the wins can be explained by the sire stats. Both horses had good value sires for the sand. Punters were making the mistake of relying too much on the turf form and not bothering to check that they did have the potential to win and that's why good prices were had.

Summary
Watch out for hyped up turf horses running on the sand for the first time - they make great lays. Especially watch out for the ones which the media pundits are talking up. Listen out for comments such as "Lucky Jim is in good form. He ran well last week at Doncaster".

For backing, look out for 'duck egg' horses running on the all weather for the first time. If the sire stats are decent you should have value on your side as the masses will not be backing the horse due to poor form.

You don't have to wait until November - they are appearing right now as some of the recent results at Wolverhampton have shown.

If you don't have the time to check the sire stats (why not? - it's just the click of a button away!) then use the Flatstats ratings. The Flatstats ratings take into consideration the sire stats and thus will point you in the direction of favourites to lay and outsiders to back.

 Flatstats Ratings Information

Subscribe to Flatstats
Here's a value offer for you. Subscribe to Flatstats for the All Weather season (through to 22nd March 2006) and get the rest of this Turf Season Free!

Don't forget that the new Horse and System Alert Feature is now up and running. Flatstats members can enter details of a horse, sire, trainer, jockey, or the rules for a system (system rules must be valid against our database) and be alerted to any contenders. Never miss a good bet again!

 Horse and Systems Alert Feature Information

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