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Sadler's Wells Stats
Sadler's Wells may be the champion sire for winning group races but he is
certainly not the punters champion. The only people who are getting rich off
him are his stud owners!
As stated in the last newsletter Sadler's Wells runners should be avoided
at grade 1 courses (Ascot, York, Newmarket etc.). Backing all his runners at
that grade of course has hit a strike rate of 13.7% and returned a loss of
24.3%.
You should also avoid him in Group class races. In Group class races his
strike is just 12.9% and the loss backing those runners is 36.7%
Obviously, there is likely to be a correlation here because most Group races
are run at grade 1 courses!
To be fair to him, at the higher grade tracks the competition is hotter. He
is not only racing amongst sires of equal ability, but quite often amongst
other horses sired by himself. The lower the grade, the more likely he is to be
racing against lower quality sires.
If we look at his stats for lower class races we can again see some quite
revealing stats.
Backing Sadler's Wells runners in Class D to Class H races
Course Grade 1 13.4%, 32.9% loss
Grade 2 19.7%, 13.0% loss
Grade 3 18.3%, 5.6% loss
Grade 4 18.8%, 18.0% profit
Another strong correlation between course grade and his performance which
this time is not explainable by the quality of race. What is interesting to
find out is why his runners are being under bet at grade 4 courses.
OK, he doesn't have very many runners at Grade 4 tracks (only about 2 a
month) but if you look at the bigger sample size of Grade 3 tracks you'll see
just a slight loss. It would not be hard to weed out some of those runners to
find a profitable betting angle at these lower graded tracks.
So far this year, backing all SW runners has hit a strike rate of 20.3% and
returned an incredible profit of 43.8%. But don't start thinking that he is a
very profitable sire who should be backed in every race from now on. He always
does well in the Spring and starts to go downhill rapidly for the rest of the
season.
Sadler's Wells Season Stats
| Season |
Wins
| Runs
| Win%
| Plc% |
I.V.
| A/E |
£1 Win
| ROI% |
| Spring |
149 |
741 |
20.1% |
41.0% |
1.24 |
1.18 |
£49.88 |
6.7% |
| Summer |
186 |
1111 |
16.7% |
36.1% |
1.03 |
0.94 |
£-200.38 |
-18.0% |
| Autumn |
97 |
814 |
11.9% |
34.0% |
0.74 |
0.76 |
£-220.79 |
-27.1% |
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Looking at his season stats from 1995 to 2003 (to ensure full seasons)
reveals that he should now not be backed - the horse has already bolted kind of
thing!
For the rest of the season Sadler's Wells runners should be considered for
laying not for backing. Especially in Group races, and especially at Grade 1
courses.
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