flatstats Derby Newsletter
  Inside This Issue 4 June 2004  
1. Introduction

2. Sadler's Wells Stats
Not the greatest sire for punters
3. Vodafone Woodcote Stakes
Ratings for this 2yo Class A race
4. Vodafone Diomed Stakes
Ratings for the 3yo+ Group 3 race
5. Vodafone Derby
Ratings for the main event
6. Subscribe to FlatStats
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A P O'Brien British Group Races

Year Strike Rate ROI%
1998 22.7% 84.1%
1999 18.2% -13.4%
2000 12.0% -44.5%
2001 20.2% 14.5%
2002 10.3% -55.4%
2003 6.1% -77.0%

Results From Mar-98 to Nov-03

Aidan O'Brien appeared like a whirlwind in the late 90's. He was hitting high strike rates in Group races but more recently, his strike rate has dropped to that of a small yard trainer.

2001 was his best year for winners. In that year he had multiple successes with Galileo, Johannesburg, Milan, Mozart and Rock of Gibraltar.

Punters have made a big mistake by following him in later years. He just hasn't had the team to repeat his good success. Hype seems to be enveloping his yard now and no one ever got rich by following hype.

In 2003 Aidan O'Brien had 19 horses who were within the first three in the betting in Group races. Only two of them won producing a huge loss of 72.4%


Introduction
Hello, and welcome new subscribers.

Sadler's Wells is represented by four runners in The Derby. That's nearly a third of the field! Those four runners will have a stiff task of winning. Sadler's Wells runners do not run well Epsom - they are just not suited to the track.

On Friday (Oaks day), The 'Champion Sire' had six runners but none of them won. Read the comments of one of his runners in the Oaks - All To Beautiful. "Ridden and headed 2f out, became unbalanced and soon one pace". That seems to be quite common with Sadler's Wells runners at Epsom. His runners have to be really special and have a running style well suited to the course in order to win at Epsom Downs.

Aidan O'Brien now has just one runner in the race (a Sadler's Wells runner at that). O'Brien is not the force of old. His record in British Group races has plummeted over the years. He really is a trainer to avoid for quite some time.

With the way the results have gone today it would be no surprise to see Murphy's Law produce a shock result. Could Sadler's Wells fill the 1-2-3 with the winner trained by O'Brien? Don't bet on it :-)

Stephen Mainwaring


Sadler's Wells Stats
Sadler's Wells may be the champion sire for winning group races but he is certainly not the punters champion. The only people who are getting rich off him are his stud owners!

As stated in the last newsletter Sadler's Wells runners should be avoided at grade 1 courses (Ascot, York, Newmarket etc.). Backing all his runners at that grade of course has hit a strike rate of 13.7% and returned a loss of 24.3%.

You should also avoid him in Group class races. In Group class races his strike is just 12.9% and the loss backing those runners is 36.7%

Obviously, there is likely to be a correlation here because most Group races are run at grade 1 courses!

To be fair to him, at the higher grade tracks the competition is hotter. He is not only racing amongst sires of equal ability, but quite often amongst other horses sired by himself. The lower the grade, the more likely he is to be racing against lower quality sires.

If we look at his stats for lower class races we can again see some quite revealing stats.

Backing Sadler's Wells runners in Class D to Class H races

Course Grade 1 13.4%, 32.9% loss
Grade 2 19.7%, 13.0% loss
Grade 3 18.3%, 5.6% loss
Grade 4 18.8%, 18.0% profit

Another strong correlation between course grade and his performance which this time is not explainable by the quality of race. What is interesting to find out is why his runners are being under bet at grade 4 courses.

OK, he doesn't have very many runners at Grade 4 tracks (only about 2 a month) but if you look at the bigger sample size of Grade 3 tracks you'll see just a slight loss. It would not be hard to weed out some of those runners to find a profitable betting angle at these lower graded tracks.

So far this year, backing all SW runners has hit a strike rate of 20.3% and returned an incredible profit of 43.8%. But don't start thinking that he is a very profitable sire who should be backed in every race from now on. He always does well in the Spring and starts to go downhill rapidly for the rest of the season.

Sadler's Wells Season Stats

 Season Wins Runs Win% Plc% I.V. A/E £1 Win ROI% 
 Spring 149 741 20.1% 41.0% 1.24 1.18 £49.88 6.7% 
 Summer 186 1111 16.7% 36.1% 1.03 0.94 £-200.38 -18.0% 
 Autumn 97 814 11.9% 34.0% 0.74 0.76 £-220.79 -27.1% 

Looking at his season stats from 1995 to 2003 (to ensure full seasons) reveals that he should now not be backed - the horse has already bolted kind of thing!

For the rest of the season Sadler's Wells runners should be considered for laying not for backing. Especially in Group races, and especially at Grade 1 courses.


Vodafone Woodcote Stakes
This is a Class A race for 2yo's. The distance is 6f.

2:30 Epsom FlatStats Ratings

  Horse Sire   Trainer   Jockey   Rating Prob % Odds  
  Victoria Peek(IRE) 1196 * 821   398   70.13 23.00 3.4  
  Royal Island(IRE) 750   994 * 558 * 69.44 22.00 3.6  
  Adoration 904   991   450   65.04 19.00 4.3  
  Obe Gold 1033   767   383   54.43 13.00 6.7  
  Screwdriver 779   808   430   45.35 8.00 11.5  
  Blue Marble 729   721   481   44.94 8.00 11.5  
  Next Time(IRE) 834   470   475   39.81 5.00 19.0  
  Gortumblo 784   617   421   35.71 2.00 49.0  

Ratings liable to change if the going changes or if there are jockey changes or non-runners

Top rated is Victoria Peek closely followed by Royal Island.

The rating for Victoria Peek is not that high, and because Royal Island is close behind it looks a risky race for backing the top rated to win.

But Victoria Peek is currently available at around 12/1 and this looks good each way value. Royal Island is a worthy favourite, but he is of no value for backing at the current price of 6/4.

Victoria Peek. Each Way.


Vodafone Diomed Stakes
This is a Group 3 race for 3yo and older horses. The distance is 8.5f

3:00 Epsom FlatStats Ratings

  Horse Sire   Trainer   Jockey   Rating Prob % Odds  
  Gateman 981   1018 * 547 * 92.38 15.00 5.7  
  Vanderlin 1039 * 912   464   87.59 14.00 6.1  
  Passing Glance 1029   846   495   84.87 13.00 6.7  
  Parasol(IRE) 1039 * 925   370   75.99 11.00 8.1  
  Beauchamp Pilot 1021   976   397   72.76 10.00 9.0  
  Sublimity(FR) 999   887   483   72.43 10.00 9.0  
  Dutch Gold(USA) 994   746   471   68.91 9.00 10.1  
  Vespone(IRE) 750   1016   495   59.57 6.00 15.7  
  Leporello(IRE) 905   938   423   58.39 6.00 15.7  
  Duck Row(USA) 837   846   437   44.64 3.00 32.3  
  Checkit(IRE) 947   778   378   42.82 2.00 49.0  
  Quito(IRE) 873   765   417   40.47 1.00 99.0  

Ratings liable to change if the going changes or if there are jockey changes or non-runners

Gateman is top rated with a rating of 92.38. He is top rated because he has the best (based on profitability) trainer and the best jockey in the race. He is trading at around 8/1 and looks a good bet.

The current favourite Vespone has a low rating of 59.57 and could be considered for laying. His rating is 'red' coloured which means his overall stats are weak. As there are seven other horses with green or blue coloured stats against him, he may find the competition too hot and that is why he could be a value lay.

To be fair to him, his rating is low because the sire has a low sample size (0 wins from 12). You may think that the lay is risky because he does have overseas 'form' but based on stats, he shouldn't be winning.

Gateman. Win
Vespone. Lay.


Vodafone Derby
This is a Group 1 'Classic' for 3yo's. The distance is 12f

4:20 Epsom FlatStats Ratings

  Horse Sire   Trainer   Jockey   Rating Prob % Odds  
  Hazyview 1091 * 883   553   91.51 13.00 6.6  
  Elshadi(IRE) 1069   995   509   87.24 12.00 7.3  
  Rule of Law(USA) 1060   1063 * 360   84.98 11.00 8.0  
  Snow Ridge(IRE) 963   1060   500   77.85 10.00 8.9  
  Massif Centrale 997   992   356   73.60 9.00 10.0  
  Pukka(IRE) 922   986   475   67.85 8.00 11.4  
  Percussionist(IRE) 922   869   474   60.67 6.00 15.5  
  North Light(IRE) 894   882   484   58.93 6.00 15.5  
  Let The Lion Roar 922   922   391   58.49 6.00 15.5  
  Coming Again(IRE) 887   785   455   56.28 6.00 15.5  
  Meath(IRE) 925   844   368   52.85 5.00 18.8  
  Salford City(IRE) 736   961   590 * 52.84 5.00 18.8  
  American Post 816   638   381   34.92 1.00 98.0  
  Gatwick(IRE) 767   760   438   34.59 1.00 98.0  

Ratings liable to change if the going changes or if there are jockey changes or non-runners

Hazyview is top rated on 91.51 points. About 4 points behind is Elshadi. Both of these horses have big prices. With the bookies you can currently get best price 50/1 and 33/1 respectively. On the exchanges they are currently 60.0 and 36.0

Even though high priced Derby winners are rare, the prices are too good to miss out on because their ratings are high. The best option is to back both those horses each way.

The current favourite Snow Ridge is rated 4th so he's too risky to lay.

The other market leader is North Light and he could be a nice lay. His rating is 'red' on 58.93 points. The rating is low because Stoute does not have a good record at the course (despite winning this race last year), and because the sire is weak in this class of race and very weak at the distance.

It's no surprise to see the Sadler's Wells runners lowly rated. Unfortunately they are not the market leaders so laying them is going to be expensive and thus too risky!

Hazyview. Each Way.
Elshadi. Each Way.
North Light. Lay


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