Introduction
Wolverhampton has been a difficult course to profit from recently. Since the course re-opened with a new Polytrack surface the results there have been quite unexpected. The Flatstats systems were disappointing there in October and November, and form students and speedraters have also said that their methods under performed there too.

The reason for this is because of the reverse draw bias which now exists there. Wolverhampton is now showing a strong low draw bias which is the complete opposite to what it was when the surface was Fibresand. This is confusing connections of horses who are thus giving wrong instructions to jockeys. Jockeys are unable to make up their minds where best to run either and this is why some horses are showing improved (unexpected) performance, and fancied runners are not able to win as expected. An analysis of the draw stats shows that the course is now experiencing a strong bias towards low drawn runners.

A bad workman blames his tools and a bad punter blames the jockey! When analysing a race you have to factor in the jockey's ability. It's no good cursing the jockey after the race. If you knew before hand that he is weak and offers little value, then you could decide not to back a particular fancied runner. Some punters were fuming after a 'bad ride' by a young lad on a fancied runner recently. If only those punters had used Flatstats they would have spotted that the jockey is weak in that type of race and thus the bet was a bad one. There is an old saying: "A good horse, a poor jockey, a poor bet" If you spot a good horse, don't forget to use Flatstats to check if the jockey is a good, moderate or poor bet!

It's competition time again. This year we are running a horse racing quiz with prizes of free subscriptions to the Flatstats site. Have a go and see how far up the leader board you can reach. Get the most questions right in the quickest time and you can win a free subscription for a full year. You will have to move quick though as the competition ends at midnight New Year's Eve! Why not take the test right now?

Have a great and prosperous 2005

Stephen Mainwaring

Wolverhampton Polytrack Draw Stats
You have probably noticed that Wolverhampton has been a bit of a nightmare for betting recently. Horses you assumed would have a good chance finish unplaced and horses you expected to finish last, win!

The reason for this is most likely because of the reverse draw bias which is now evident at the course. The change in draw bias has totally thrown punters, trainers and jockeys.

Previously 'low was slow' as any horse drawn low had less chance of winning than those drawn mid to high. Low was indeed slow because of the drainage at the course, and the way that the Fibresand surface was deeper on the inside. Only if there had been torrential rain recently such that the surface was more like firm going would it be possible to win from a low draw.

But the new Polytrack surface and drainage work performed at the track has created a remarkable turn around in the draw bias. Now 'low means big advantage' as the following tables taken from the Flatstats Draw Section shows:

Wolverhampton Polytrack Draw Stats - All Races since 02-Oct-04

The chart clearly shows a strong low draw bias. This is indicated by the strike rate and the profit / loss bars. The higher the draw, the bigger the loss backing that draw position.

The figures are even more revealing over the shorter distances.

Wolverhampton Polytrack Draw Stats - Sprints since 02-Oct-04

This chart shows a huge bias to low numbers - a bias similar to Chester. If your horse is drawn higher than 5 then the chances of winning are really slim.

The draw bias is increasing in magnitude as the weeks go by. If you exclude October, and look at the results for November and December you will see that the draw bias is getting stronger.

There are two reasons for this. First, the surface is bedding down, Secondly, and probably more significantly, more jockeys are realising that they can win from low draws.

Watch out for low drawn runners at Wolverhampton over the next few weeks. There could be some going off at tasty prices. Punters and media pundits have not picked up on this strong draw bias yet, and if Chester is anything to go by they will not believe it even after two hundred years as the Chester results show!. Watch out for jockeys who really know their stuff when drawn low - especially Ian Mongan who is the best low drawn jockey for all three all weather tracks.

Note that the Flatstats ratings take into consideration the draw bias and will thus give a better rating to low drawn runners. If you are having difficulty in analysing a Wolverhampton race then take a look at the Flatstats ratings.

 Draw Stats - Free Samples

Jockey Stats
When analysing a race many punters focus on what a horse has done and leave it at that. Very few will bother to check a trainer's particular record and even fewer will bother to check the jockey to see if he is suited to the race.

Punters assume that jockeys are like taxi drivers. All they have to do is to start and stop in the right place and steer around the bends. They assume that jockeys are 100% efficient over every distance, on every going and on every type of horse. Those views are wrong and punters are losing out big time if they don't take into consideration individual jockeys strengths and weaknesses. You wouldn't expect Paula Radcliffe to win the 100m and you wouldn't expect Linford Christie to win the New York Marathon, so why expect jockeys to have the same athletic ability under all race conditions?

Whenever a horse loses a race punters will try to blame someone else for the failure. First in the chain of blame is the jockey. This happened last week at Wolverhampton where some punters decided to vent their anger at 3lb claimer Dominic Fox.

Fox failed to win on the fancied Highest Regard. Fox had plenty of horse power underneath him but found trouble in running. He was up against a wall of horses around the final bend and couldn't find a way out. When a gap did appear, it was just too late as the winner Caona went clear. Many punters decried his riding on Highest Regard. Some were even unfairly castigating the jockey when in earshot of the Attheraces cameras - all comments duly transmitted to the nation!

Two days later Fox failed to win on another fancied runner - Canterloupe, although there was no trouble in running and no hard luck story this time.

If punters had bothered to check Fox's record for those races they would have given him a miss and not backed those horses. Whilst Fox is a fairly decent jockey on the all weather, he was totally not suited to those particular races.

Fox is a jockey who does poorly in sprints, and has never won on an a 2yo. He has also lost his edge as his claim has decreased as the following stats show.

Dominc Fox All Weather Stats up to 14-Dec-04

Fox has a poor record at Lingfield and is weak at Wolverhampton. He's much better at Southwell where the fields are strung out and there is less opportunity to meet trouble in running.

The distance range stat shows that Sprints are his weakness. He has had his most rides in sprints and yet he's only ever had 5 winners. Fox is a much better jockey over 8f or more. Both Highest Regard and Canterloupe may have had the ability to win over shorter distances themselves, but they had a jockey driving them who couldn't.

The older the horse, the more likely Fox is to win. This could indicate that he is only effective with more sand experienced runners - he's weak at getting the best out of newcomers. Note that the poor record with 2yo's could be correlated with sprints as 2yo's will invariably be running over sprint distances.

This is probably the most significant stat which explains why you shouldn't be putting your money on a horse ridden by Fox - he's getting less effective as he loses his claim.

Please note that Fox is not getting worse as a jockey overall. On the turf he's progressing well and it is just on the all weather where he is not doing so good.

For now, the best advice is to avoid backing Fox on fancied runners unless the race is over 8f or more at Southwell. Over shorter distances, or at the other two all weather courses, Fox just doesn't appear to have the experience to win.

 D Fox Jockey Stats

Banded Races
In January 2004 the first Banded Races (aka Regional Racing) were run on the all weather. A year later, 333* of these races have taken place such that there is now plenty of data to analyse.

The favourite in banded races won 30% of the time and returned a loss of 12.4%. That is quite similar to all other stakes races during the same period. The favourite is slightly overbet though and this makes the second fav better value.

It is no surprise to see that females are performing badly on the all weather and that punters are still over betting them. Fillies are the worst gender to follow. The important A/E figure index (value indicator) is only 0.73.

Colts are the gender to follow in this class of racing. If you had backed every colt, in every Class H race on the all weather in 2004 you would have won 15.6% of the time and returned a profit of 23.5%.

This table shows the performance of horses ranked on winnings. The horse who has previously won the most prize money is overbet by the public so backing the 'classiest' horse is not a good betting proposition.

Quick returners are underbet by the public - especially quick returning males.

Some trainers have got a grip on this class of racing. Whilst previously they may have struggled to get their low rated horses a run, they now have opportunities opened up for them.

The best trainers for banded races include:

• W M Brisbourne
• B A Pearce
• B P J Baugh
• Miss Gay Kelleway
• K R Burke

The above have returned good strike rates and / or profits. Trainers to avoid include:

• A G Newcombe
• J M Bradley
• Mrs N Macauley
• P D Evans

The above have had none or very few winners from at least 20 runs in banded races, and yet they did have some success in better class races during the same period.

Systems
The stats show that second favourites, colts, and quick returners are offering value whilst fillies, and horses who had won the highest prize money offer poor value. It is easy to construct a few simple systems from this information.

Colts System: Back all colts
Quick Returner System: Back all males (colts, geldings, horses) running within a week
Favourites Laying System: Lay all fillies and mares who go off as the 1st favourite

*Amateur, Apprentice and Lady Jockeys only races excluded from analysis.

Horse Racing Quiz
Do you know which trainer appeared in a pop band, or which trainer appeared in TV adverts? Do you know what job Big Mac had when he first started in racing? If you are clued up on racing trivia then enter the Flatstats Horse Racing Quiz.

There are big prizes to be won. The top prize is a free subscription for a full year (worth £230)! There are also smaller prizes of three month and one month subscriptions. You can win one of these by entering the free quiz and getting the most answers right in the quickest possible time.

The quiz has some easy questions, and some hard. Why not have a go and see how well you do? The competition closes at midnight New Year's Eve so you will have to enter it quick!

Subscribe to Flatstats
Here's a value offer for you. Subscribe to Flatstats for the All Weather season (through to 26th March 2005) for just £59.95! That's a big saving over the individual monthly cost of £24.95. Join now and you can access all the features of Flatstats for this low, value price.

Don't forget. Flatstats is not just for stats-meisters. Flatstats can be used to compliment form study and speed ratings.

Whatever method you use to find winners then why not use Flatstats as a second opinion? Continue to make your selections using your own tried and trusted methods, but just check the Flatstats rating of your selection to see if it's chances are overall good or bad. Doing so could stop you from wasting bets on fancied horses ridden by poor value jockeys.

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