Introduction
The rules and regulations of racing are often changed. Sometimes changes to the rules can have an impact on systems and stats and thus they are often not welcome! But one recent rule change has created a bit of a gold mine - the rule which allows apprentices to keep their claim when they reach the age of 26. Read why you should be following 3lb claimer Jason Edmunds.

Next month Kempton re-opens with an all weather track. The old flat turf course has been replaced by Polytrack as used by Lingfield and Wolverhampton. There is one big difference which separates Kempton from the existing all weather courses - the direction. Kempton will be the first right handed all weather track and thus will create some interesting results. This newsletter shows which jockeys you should be following at Kempton.

Each month Betfair release trading data which allows us to calculate a 'Betfair SP'. Comparing this information with the Bookie's SP shows exactly how much of an advantage exchange punters get over other punters. We are producing a full article for the Flatstats site on this subject but in this newsletter you can read some juicy snippets.

Stephen Mainwaring

Apprentice Allowance Rule Change
In September last year the rules relating to apprentice allowances changed. Previously, apprentices who failed to 'ride out their claim' by the time they reached the age of 26 lost their claim. This meant that many apprentices who did not have many rides, or did not get offered any good horses which they could win on, often ended up leaving the game.

The new rule takes away the upper age limit so that 'apprentices' can now continue to receive a claim until they have ridden 95 winners regardless of how old they are.

This rule change has created an unusual situation where jockeys who are in their thirties, or older can claim an allowance. In theory it could be possible for a 60 year old jockey who retired from racing when he failed to ride out his claim, and did not achieve 95 winners to return to racing and start claiming again!

Whilst that situation is unlikely to happen it is strange to see jockeys such as 41 year old Ann Stokell claiming 7lbs. But this shows that the new rule is fair as Stokell rarely wins. On the flat turf and all weather she has only ever had 7 winners from 290 rides. By allowing her to reclaim 7lbs means that she could win a few more races.

Other jockeys who are taking advantage of the new rule include:

       
•  Natalia Gemelova (5)
       
•  R Brisland (5)
       
•  R Smith (3)
       
•  R Thomas (3)
       
•  J McAuley (3)
       
•  J Edmunds (3)

Robin Brisland is a good example which shows how this new rule is helping apprentices. Brisland started riding back in 1995. In 2001 he turned 26 and thus lost the 5lb claim which he was entitled to. Since that time and up until 31st August 2005 he's only managed to win 4 times from 544 rides - that's a strike rate of just 1.5%. But when the new rule came into force in September 2005, and he was able to claim 5lb again, Brisland has won 2 races from just 21 rides - a strike rate of 9.5%

Clearly Brisland was struggling to get decent rides when he lost his claim but now that he can claim 5lb again he's able to start winning some races.

Whilst Brisland is a perfect example of why this rule is needed there is a flaw. What if an apprentice has had many winners, is an experienced rider, but is able to reclaim an allowance again?

Take a look at the stats for 34 year Jason Edmunds. On the turf Edmunds is a run of the mill jockey with an under achieving strike rate of just 3.5%. But on the all weather Edmunds is a far better jockey.

Edmunds 'lost his claim' back in 1996 but has had many profitable years on the all weather since then. Up until 31st August 2005 Edmunds won 41 races from 452 rides on the sand. This is a strike rate of 9.1%. Backing all his runners during that time returned a profit of 5.5%.

Edmunds can be described as an experienced all weather jockey. He has a good strike rate, has many profitable stats, and is often listed as one of the best value jockeys in a race based on Flatstats ratings.

Now picture the scenario where a 34 year old experienced jockey is allowed to claim 3lbs again! This is what has happened with Edmunds. Back in September last year Edmunds has been allowed to claim 3lb again. The last time he claimed an allowance was 9 years prior.

Check out Edmunds all weather stats since he has been able to reclaim his allowance:

9 wins from 51 rides, 17.6% strike rate, 120% profit

That kind of strike rate is usually only obtained by Fallon and Spencer who get to ride hot horses. The profit returned is crazy!

Remember the name Jason Edmunds and consider backing all his runners on the all weather in the next few months. At the time of writing he has had a total of 67 winners. He is allowed to ride another 28 until he loses his claim ... again.

 Jockey Stats

Kempton All Weather Track
Next month Kempton racecourse will start racing on their new Polytrack course. This will be quite unusual for regular all weather horses and jockeys because the course is right handed.

"So what?" you may say. "What difference does a right handed track make?". It can make a big difference. Some horses and some jockeys show strong biases on right handed courses - some do better on them, some do worse.

There is no better example than the great Desert Orchid - he had a definite preference for right handed tracks. Whilst it was his style of jumping which caused the right/left bias (he tended to jump to the right when going over fences) the reason why jockeys show direction biases is not so clear. It could be due to imbalances in the ear, or just that it doesn't feel right for some jockeys to be going around a right hand bend.

You could test that theory at your local sports centre by running in both directions around the race track. But you may want to take my word for it that some jockeys do show a preference for right handed tracks.

The following tables shows the top 5 jockeys for right handed courses. The table is ranked by the ratio of right handed strike rate to left handed strike rate. Any jockey who has a ratio higher than 1.00 wins more often right handed than left handed. Data derived from Flat Turf courses only.

Top Jockeys based on Right / Left Handed Index

Top of the table is Lee Enstone. He has achieved a strike rate of 8.9% going around a right hand bend but only 5.3% when going around a left hand bend. This is a ratio or right-left index of 1.68.

Enstone could be one to follow at Kempton for two reasons. As already pointed out he is about '68% better' when riding on a right handed course but secondly he is a much better jockey on the all weather than on turf. Punters may not consider Enstone to be a good jockey but with the combination of all weather and right handed he could do better than punters expect.

Neil Callan was in the running to be the champion all weather jockey this season but he is currently in second place behind Eddie Ahern. If Kempton had started racing a few months ago the picture could have been different. Just like Enstone Callan is showing a strong bias towards right handed tracks - he is about '45% better' right handed than left.

At the other end of the table are jockeys who do worse on right handed compared to left handed tracks.

Bottom Jockeys based on Right / Left Handed Ratio

The jockey with the worst right / left ratio is Matthew Henry. He has a 10.8% strike rate when going around a left hand bend but only a 4.2% strike rate when going around a right hand bend. Henry is expected to perform much worse at Kempton than at the other all weather tracks.

Jockey biases are rarely analysed by the betting public. Punters in general assume that jockeys are 100% efficient machines who can win at any course and at any distance. But the above tables show that this is not true as there are jockeys with definite direction biases.

What would happen if Matthew Henry won on Lucky Jim at Lingfield and then he rode the horse in it's next race at Kempton? Even though the horse would be 'in form' the conditions would be against Henry. If the horse fails to place whilst being a warm favourite the masses would wonder how could an in form horse lose?

All they had to do was to realise that the shape of the course is different and to do some research. The smarter punter may check the horses form on a right hand track but very few punters will bother to check if the jockey is better or worse on a right handed track. Using Flatstats it only takes seconds to check the stats!

 Jockey Stats

Analysing Betfair SP Data

UPDATE: 12-Dec-2007 This article discusses a "manually calculated" Betfair SP derived from Betfair historic data. In December 2007 Betfair started issuing an offical Betfair SP (BSP). This article was created before the BSP was introduced and thus may not be relevant to the BSP. Please see our latest article on the Betfair SP

"Get 20% Better Prices" is a slogan used by exchanges. What they are implying is that on average, you should be able to get a price 20% higher than with the bookies. In general, the figure is true, so is it possible to make money backing, say favourites, with this 20% better price? What about backing top jockeys who only just make a slight loss at SP? Are they profitable on the exchanges?

The following data is derived from the flat turf since June 2004. This is the date from which Betfair have released historic price data. From this data we calculate a Betfair SP by averaging the last few bets placed on each horse.

Favourites
The first thing to note is that you won't get '20% better odds' on winning favourites. Exchange layers are cautious with favourites and will not offer prices 20% higher than you can get with bookies. One reason for this is because favourites tend to be priced at odds closer to their true odds of winning - bookies tend to offer better value on favourites than on outsiders.

On average, backing favourites at the Betfair SP has returned prices 12% higher than SP. But is this 12% 'extra value' enough to make a profit?

Backing all favourites at bookies SP: 7.3% loss
Backing all favourites at Betfair SP: 0.1% loss

That's a good starting point but don't forget, the exchanges charge commission on all winning bets. Here are the results of backing the fav at Betfair SP with different commission rates:

5% commission: 3.6% loss
4% commission: 3.0% loss
3% commission: 2.3% loss
2% commission: 1.5% loss

This clearly shows the impact of commission. Even though you can get 12% better prices you still get stung with commission on winning bets.

Top Jockeys
You won't go wrong following top jockeys such as Frankie Dettori. He wins with about 1 in 5 of all his rides and returns a loss of just 3.6% at SP (since June 2004). That's not bad considering that he is a popular jockey and sure to be the choice of many fun bet punters up and down the country. So what happens if you back his rides on the exchanges? How much extra value can you get and is he profitable? For all the following information a 5% commission rate is applied.

Backing L Dettori at Betfair SP (with 5% commission): 6.8% profit

That is pretty incredible. If you want proof that the exchanges offer good value then just try backing Frankie Dettori on the exchanges at near the off. The exchange layers are offering Frankie at prices 17% higher than the bookies. That 17% 'extra value' is enough to make following all Frankie's mounts profitable - even with 5% commission.

Kieren Fallon is profitable too. Backing all his mounts at Betfair SP and 5% commission has returned a profit of 3.4%. Here's a list of other profitable jockeys on the exchanges.

J Murtagh: 22.2% profit
R Winston: 27.4% profit
S Sanders: 33.8% profit
Martin Dwyer: 83.3% profit

The reason why some of these jockeys are so profitable on the exchanges is because of two reasons. The first is that they may be profitable or just make a slight loss at SP (and thus, the exchange extra value is helping), or secondly, they tend to ride 'live outsiders' who win often but are available at a price much greater than the SP.

Seb Sanders is a good example for both those points. Backing Sanders mounts at bookie SP returns a slight loss of just 2% but exchange layers, on average, offer Sanders at prices 33% higher than SP. This is more than enough to turn the slight loss into a big profit.

Sanders often wins on big prices too. During the period analysed Sanders rode 255 20/1+ shots and won on 12 of them. If you backed them all with the bookies you would have made a 32.9% profit. But backing them all at the Betfair SP returned a profit of 119%.

The reason for this is because exchange layers are offering crazy prices on Sanders outsiders. On average they were offering prices at 83% higher than the SP! e.g. when Sanders won on Blitzkrieg in a Group 3 race at Salisbury last year betting shop punters had to settle for 20/1 whilst exchange punters got 32/1. An even bigger example is when Sanders won on Doctor's Cave at Goodwood in 2004. Bookie punters got 50/1, exchange punters got 149/1 !

There are many jockeys who fare worse on the exchanges than at SP. There are also big differences in the profitability of trainers too. Watch out for a complete article covering the Betfair SP* on the Flatstats site soon.

*The Betfair SP stated here is not an official price endorsed by Betfair. The figure is calculated by Flatstats based on historic price information provided by Betfair.

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