flatstats May Newsletter
  Inside This Issue 06 May 2003  
1. Introduction
Don't believe the hype
2. Sir Mark Prescott Update
Now is the time to follow his all weather flops
3. Chester Analysis
Stats for the Chester
4. Using the New Race Stats Database
More useful tools at your fingertips
5. Stats for Miss K Rausing
Richer than the Queen, but happy to run at lowly Wolverhampton
6. New for 2003
See what's new at the FlatStats site
Worst Courses for Widest Drawn
on Left Handed or Straight Tracks


Course Win% ROI%
Chester 3.9% -65%
Redcar 5.8% -57%
Warwick 6.1% -60%
Chepstow 6.3% -42%
Brighton 6.3% -42%

Results from May-93 to Apr-03

The table shows the performance of the widest drawn horse in the race on non-righted handed tracks. The data was derived from analysing races of 8 runners or more in Sprints.

The widest drawn runner at Chester really has a mountain to climb to overcome the bad draw.


Introduction
Hello, and welcome new subscribers.

On Sunday, there were two prime examples of why you should not believe the hype: Six Perfections was hyped up as a wonder horse who could not be beaten; Russian Rhythm was rumoured to not be running well at camp Stoute.

In the 1000 Guineas the hype was proved wrong with Six Perfections (unluckily or not) not living up to her reputation, and Russian Rhythm defying the negative hype to take the Classic.

Hype is a bad thing in gambling. If you listen to hype then you are not betting with a focused mind. You are susceptible to outside influence and are likely to change your mind rather than stand by your principles.

I'll tell you a true story. I had never heard of Six Perfections until the night before the 1000 Guineas. I don't follow antepost markets; what happens in other countries does not interest me.

Many years ago I did listen to hype. I did back horses antepost because they were a 'sure thing'. But then I realised that it is foolish. Unless you can predict the going, the exact list of runners, the field size, the draw position for the day of the race then you are really relying on lady luck. There is no way you can accurately analyse a race until the final declarations are made.

Stephen Mainwaring

PS
Over at Pittsburgh Phil's Place Six Perfections was tipped as a lay and Russian Rhythm tipped as the winner. Don't listen to hype, read the facts at Pittsburgh Phil's Place.


Sir Mark Prescott Update
Back in the January Newsletter various Prescott runners were identified as possible good things for the turf this year.

The horses have sires with poor records on the sand, but fine on the turf. Because they were running on a surface they would not be suited to, punters would be fooled into underestimating them when they next run on turf.

Below is a list of horses who should be followed on their next few runs. Also listed are the conditions in which the horse will have it's best chance of winning according to sire stats.

Horse Condition
Lawrence Of Arabia 8f+ will need the first run
Romancing 10f+, avoid galloping tracks, need going softer than good
Sticky Fingers 10f+, avoid galloping tracks, need going softer than good
Acceleration Next time out on turf after a layoff. Sprints only
Coat Of Honour* Next time out, before July, Sprints only
Dafne Next time out
Nabokov Next time out
Nadeszhda Next time out
Triwan Next time out
Dugdale Non galloping tracks, Good to Firm, will need the first run
Young Collier Non galloping tracks, Good to Firm, will need the first run

You can either back them on their next or second run on the turf, or follow the condition exactly. e.g. don't back Sticky Fingers if running next on a galloping track.

*Coat of Honour ran 05-May at Newcastle finishing a neck 2nd at 7-1. The race was 8f so not a sprint as required in the condition box. Probably no value in backing this one next time as media pundits will take into account the 05-May result and discard the all weather form.


Chester Analysis
It is well known that Chester offers a big advantage to those drawn low. This has been known for years. So if the draw advantage is well known, why is it still possible to profit from low drawn runners? Why after all these years of form books and data are the odds of low drawn runners going off higher than they should?

Chester is a goldmine for punters who just concentrate on low drawn runners. The advantage enjoyed from being closest to the running rail really is huge. One of the best systems followed by FlatStats is the 'Low Drawn Chester Form Horse'. The rules for this system are simple: back any horse drawn 1, 2 or 3 who was placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time and is fancied today.

Usually, fancied horses who were placed last time out would not be profitable. These runners would be overbet and would not win as often as their odds say they should. But at Chester, being drawn low increases the chance of winning tremendously. The low draw advantage can make a 3/1 shot in the market run more like a 9/4 or 5/2 shot.

Why is the advantage so great?
Running around Chester is like running around a giant bowl: horses are constantly on the turn. There is hardly any straight section (the run in is less than 2f). Any jockey who is behind the pack, and wishes to overtake to get in front, has to pull out and cup around the pack in an arc movement. This burns up energy.

If jockeys stayed up with the pace and ran side by side, then horses drawn wide will have to run much further than those drawn low. Using a bit of maths it is possible to conclude that a horse drawn in stall 4 will have to run 56 foot further than a horse drawn in stall 1 for every complete circuit of the track.

Skip this paragraph if you don't like maths ;-)
Chester is as close to a circle as you can get. It is roughly 1 mile in circumference. 1 mile = 5280ft. The radius is therefore 840.34. Assuming horses run in 3ft widths, and that in a race, the horses all run side by side, then a horse in stall 4 will be running on a radius of 840.34 + 3 x 3ft = 849.34. The circumference, or total distance now travelled to complete a circuit = 2 * pi * 849.34 = 5336ft. Therefore the difference in distance run between stall 1 and 4 is 56ft.

Can you imagine the uproar if a horse was allowed to start 56ft in front of other runners? 56ft is 18 yards. In todays highly competitive races where many races end in photo finishes, it wouldn't take a genius to realise that the horse starting 56ft in front would tend to be well overbet.

So why aren't punters overbetting those drawn low? Why aren't media pundits highlighting the low draw and making their own selections from low draws?

It has to be due to being "stuck in their ways". Whichever method a punter uses for finding winners in a race, the prime selection procedure must be followed exactly else they would not have faith in their method.

e.g. A speed rater works out that Lucky Jim is 10 points clear on ratings. This normally is a huge advantage and would warrant a maximum bet. But the horse is drawn wide at Chester. What does the speed rater do? If he has total faith in his ratings then he has to back the horse regardless of draw 'just in case'. The same goes for the media pundit with his expert form analysis. "Lucky Jim ran a half length second to Blue Boy at York last month, and is 5lb well in today". Again he has to follow his convictions and override the draw bias. You can even include stable whispers in this conundrum. If the whispers are strong for a certain horse who has done well on the gallops then those in the know have to bet the horse regardless of draw position.

Whatever method you use for analysing a race always remember to put maximum weighting to low drawn runners, and make it easy to dismiss those drawn high.

Experience counts
Being a jockey requires a bit more skill and knowledge than pushing a supermarket trolley around the isles. Most punters don't take this into consideration. They assume that a jockey is a jockey and is only there to steer a horse and whip it to go faster.

Chester is a very tricky course where course experience counts. The following table shows the stats for jockeys who have had few rides at the course and jockeys who have had many.

Number of Course Runs Win% ROI%
Less than 10 7.3% -43%
More than 50 14.1% -11%

Jockeys who have had less than 10 runs at the course only won 7.3% of the time and returned a loss of 43%. More experienced jockeys who have ridden at least 50 times around the course won nearly twice as much and returned less of a loss.

To make a more fairer analysis the following table examines favourites ridden by course inexperienced and experienced jockeys.

Number of Course Runs Win% ROI%
Less than 10 27.8% -10%
More than 50 39.3% +11%

A jockey, with little course experience and riding the favourite, wins at a rate much lower than an experienced jockey. Notice too that experienced jockeys riding the favourite have actually returned a profit of 11%.

Chester Cup
On Wednesday the 2m 2f Chester Cup is run. This race for 4yo and up runners is a tricky race to analyse and often has a big field of 18 runners. To help you to analyse the race a dataset has been created. The dataset contains the results of the Chester Cup for the past 10 years so you can view a detailed analysis of the race. Below are some pointers obtained from the dataset:

Try and avoid geldings in the race.
Horses who last ran more than 8 weeks ago are negative.
Forget finding big priced winners. No horse priced 20/1 or more has won from 58 attempts
Carrying 9-4 or more is too much of a burden.
Carrying 8-7 or less the horse is quite likely to be running out of his class range.

flatstats Chester Cup 10 Year Analysis


Using the New Race Stats Database
During the winter the FlatStats site upgraded all the databases to a new, faster, more comprehensive format. This new format allows for more interactive searching of the databases and allows you to find stats for the exact race you are trying to analyse.

The new race stats follow a similar theme to the new Systems Checker feature: you have many configuration options; the resulting report is quite comprehensive.

Below are some examples of using the race stats search for Chester.

First, change the course to Chester by clicking on the drop down box under course. Next, select the type of race you wish to analyse by placing or removing ticks from the various boxes.

Say you wanted to analyse 3yo+ handicap sprints at the course. Ensure there is only a tick in the 3yo+ box under Ages, for race type ensure open is ticked as this includes 'standard' races. Remove the tick from stakes leaving just handicaps selected. Scroll down to the distance section and either set the boxes to 5f to 7 1/2f or just click the quick set to sprints option.

If you now click go you will see a report showing an analysis of all 3yo+ handicap sprints from Chester for the past 10 years.

The first box just confirms which type of race you are analysing. The second box reveals a quick summary of stats:

 Summary Stats    Winners Average
 First Three in Betting 58% 
 Top Three in Weights 33% 
 Placed LTO 41% 
 Male/Female Ratio 0.74 
 Course Winner Ratio 1.23 
 
 SP 6.43/1 
 Tote Return £7.87 
 Age 4.9 
 Weight 126lbs 
 Draw 4.5 
 Winning Distance 1.9L 

The winner was from the first three in the betting 58% of the time, so it would pay to just concentrate on the market leaders.
The winner was from the top three in the weights 33% of the time.
41% of all winners were placed last time out.
The Male/Female ratio shows how well male horses perform compared to female horses. In this case, males are trailing badly behind females so you should place more emphasis on female runners in the race. Contrast this with some races on the all weather where males well outperform females.
The Course Winner ratio compares course winners to non course winners. If the figure is higher than 1.00 then a previous course winner has an advantage.
Also shown in the table are the 'winners average' such as average SP, weight, age etc.

The rest of the report is split into sections. Here are some of the most significant stats from the report:

 SP Pos Wins Runs Win% I.V. A/E £1 Win ROI% 
 1 49 169 29.0% 3.05 1.08 £26.38 15.6% 
 2 27 169 16.0% 1.68 0.84 £-27.84 -16.5% 
 3 22 169 13.0% 1.37 0.87 £-21.50 -12.7% 
 4 19 168 11.3% 1.19 0.89 £-28.00 -16.7% 
 5 16 164 9.8% 1.03 0.89 £-26.50 -16.2% 
 6 7 159 4.4% 0.46 0.47 £-84.50 -53.1% 
 7 11 149 7.4% 0.78 0.92 £-19.00 -12.8% 
 8 4 133 3.0% 0.32 0.42 £-85.00 -63.9% 
 9 9 123 7.3% 0.77 1.17 £4.00 3.3% 
 10 2 103 1.9% 0.20 0.34 £-75.00 -72.8% 
 11 2 85 2.4% 0.25 0.49 £-49.00 -57.6% 
 12 0 58 0.0% 0.00 0.00 £-58.00 -100.0% 
 13 0 48 0.0% 0.00 0.00 £-48.00 -100.0% 
 14 1 32 3.1% 0.33 0.85 £19.00 59.4% 
 15 0 22 0.0% 0.00 0.00 £-22.00 -100.0% 
 16 0 17 0.0% 0.00 0.00 £-17.00 -100.0% 

This is a great race for favourite backers. In 169 similar races, the favourite has returned a profit of 15.6%. Notice that there is now a new A/E figure. This figure is a sort of enhanced impact value which shows the ratio of Actual Winners to Expected Winners. The figure takes into consideration the price of all previous runners so that any favourite / longshot bias can be identified. A figure of above 1.00 shows that a group is being underbet by the public.

 SP Wins Runs Win% I.V. A/E £1 Win ROI% 
 upto 15/8 10 25 40.0% 4.21 1.02 £0.89 3.6% 
 2/1 to 9/2 58 266 21.8% 2.29 0.96 £-18.18 -6.8% 
 5/1 to 9/1 70 583 12.0% 1.26 0.94 £-44.50 -7.6% 
 10/1 to 18/1 28 597 4.7% 0.49 0.63 £-227.00 -38.0% 
 20/1+ 2 302 0.7% 0.07 0.18 £-230.00 -76.2% 

The bigger the price, the more greater the loss. Concentrate on the shorter priced runners as you are more likely to find value there.

 Draw Range Wins Runs Win% I.V. A/E £1 Win ROI% 
 Low 72 513 14.0% 1.48 1.08 £-38.09 -7.4% 
 Middle 59 575 10.3% 1.08 0.90 £-97.87 -17.0% 
 High 38 690 5.5% 0.58 0.53 £-386.00 -55.9% 

Don't just look at the raw Win% when analysing a draw bias. Also look at the impact value as this takes into consideration the number of runners in a particular draw range. Also look at the ROI% to see if a range is overbet. Clearly the low drawn runners are not being overbet. OK, they make a loss of 7.4% but remember, that is from backing all low drawn runners in a race. What is clear, is that being drawn high is extremely disadvantageous.

Once again the A/E ratio is useful here in identifying that low drawn runners are not being overbet. For high drawn runners, the figure of 0.53 indicates that the price of horses in that draw range should really be much higher than they are. Or to put it another way, the high drawn group are winning at a rate much less than what their odds say they should.

 Age Wins Runs Win% I.V. A/E £1 Win ROI% 
 3yo 24 311 7.7% 0.81 0.64 £-167.83 -54.0% 
 4yo 47 527 8.9% 0.94 0.81 £-136.50 -25.9% 
 5yo 48 387 12.4% 1.30 1.05 £-74.96 -19.4% 
 6yo 27 260 10.4% 1.09 0.89 £-32.67 -12.6% 
 7yo 17 166 10.2% 1.08 0.90 £-31.25 -18.8% 
 8yo+ 6 127 4.7% 0.50 0.47 £-78.75 -62.0% 

3yo's make big losses in 3yo+ handicap sprints at Chester. The inexperience of the horse against older runners could be the reason why the results for them are poor. You should avoid older runners (8yo+) too.

 Gender Wins Runs Win% I.V. A/E £1 Win ROI% 
 Colts 24 209 11.5% 1.21 0.91 £-49.62 -23.7% 
 Fillies 24 257 9.3% 0.98 0.80 £-58.29 -22.7% 
 Geldings 84 1010 8.3% 0.87 0.76 £-380.01 -37.6% 
 Horses 8 112 7.1% 0.75 0.60 £-64.00 -57.1% 
 Mares 29 190 15.3% 1.61 1.22 £29.96 15.8% 

This table shows the female gender bias. Mares are the best for this race. Backing every mare over the past 10 years has returned a decent profit of 15.8%. Fillies are not profitable because they are either going to be 3yo or 4yo and we have already seen that 3yo's do badly.

 Last Ran Wins Runs Win% I.V. A/E £1 Win ROI% 
 1 to 7 days 39 317 12.3% 1.29 1.02 £-31.00 -9.8% 
 8 to 14 days 57 564 10.1% 1.06 0.85 £-126.88 -22.5% 
 15 to 28 days 51 548 9.3% 0.98 0.79 £-210.46 -38.4% 
 29 to 56 days 17 194 8.8% 0.92 0.81 £-42.75 -22.0% 
 57+ days 5 150 3.3% 0.35 0.42 £-105.87 -70.6% 

The sooner a horse is returning, the more likely it is to win. Definitely avoid any horse who has not run for more than 8 weeks (57+ days).

 Allowance Wins Runs Win% I.V. A/E £1 Win ROI% 
 0 lbs 147 1375 10.7% 1.12 0.90 £-279.42 -20.3% 
 3 lbs 7 152 4.6% 0.48 0.43 £-113.29 -74.5% 
 5 lbs 9 133 6.8% 0.71 0.68 £-64.25 -48.3% 
 7 lbs 6 118 5.1% 0.53 0.62 £-65.00 -55.1% 

Apprentices should be good in handicaps as their weight allowance can often be used to good effect. But the above table shows that you should not back apprentices at Chester. The weight allowance is not enough to overcome the course inexperience. Only back an apprentice if he has had at least 50 runs at the course, and obviously, if he has had a few wins at the track.

There are many more stats available in the report. And you can of course choose any race type you wish such as Class A-C long distance handicaps, 2yo maiden stakes, 3yo group races, races on soft going, even group races in the autumn.

The new race stats search is one of the most powerful analysis tools you will find on the net. No other site, not even with multi million pound website budgets, compares with FlatStats. Take a test drive here:

flatstats Race Stats


Stats for Miss K Rausing
Kirsten Rausing is the ninth richest person in Britain with an estimated fortune of £1.6 Billion. Her wealth was not created from racing but from cartons (juice, milk etc. see the name Tetra Pak).

From East Anglia, her home for more than 20 years, she runs two studs. She has another in Ireland. Rausing is chairman of the European Federation of Thoroughbred Breeding.

With such great wealth you would think she would only be interested in the Derby's, and the other richest races throughout the world. This is not the case as you will regularly find Rausing running at courses such as Wolverhampton, Folkestone and Leicester.

Rausing has sufficient runs in the UK to create a profile. Using her profile it is possible to identify profitable races for backing Rausing's runners. No harm in rubbing off a little wealth eh?

Miss K Rausing Turf Profile

Overall 34 winners from 219 runners, 15.5% strike rate, 17.8% loss backing all her runners.

Spring 15.2% strike rate, 47% loss
Summer 19.1%, 4.9% loss
Autumn 12.4%, 19.8% loss

She's very unprofitable to follow in the spring. Autumn is the time of year where her strike rate is the lowest but the loss in that season is not as bad as the spring. Summer is the best time for backing Rausing's runners.

Handicaps 16.4%, 5.4% loss
Stakes 15.2%, 22.7% loss

A good record in handicaps.

Sprints 12.8%, 20.1% loss
Middle 18.4%, 9.6% loss
Long 16.3%, 26.3% loss

A lower strike rate in sprints but the loss is not as great as in long distance races.

Group 27.3%, 63.6% profit
A-C 15.6%, 30.9% profit
D-E 13.9%, 36.6% loss
F-G 22.2%, 10.6% profit

She can win the in the highest class group races and in lowly class F & G races.

Grade 1 courses 10.6%, 20.5% loss
Grade 2 20.9%, 16.9% profit
Grade 3 12.0%, 63% loss
Grade 4 29.6%, 72.0% profit

Grade 1 courses see her lowest strike rate. At Grade 4 tracks she is seriously underestimated.

Favourites 33.3%, 31.1% loss.

A poor record with favourites, and with 2nd favourites. Rarely has an outsider winner.

2yo 8.9%, 36.1% loss
3yo 20.8%, 3.0% loss

Seems to only race 2 and 3yo. After that they are probably shipped off to stud. What is interesting is that Rausing only races Fillies. Out of the 219 runs, 216 were fillies.

FTO 6.8%, 33.9% loss
LTO 1st 34.5%, 18% profit
LTO 7th or worse 5.9%, 52% loss

A poor record with FTO's. Seeing as she races mostly 2yo and 3yo this could explain why the Spring is a fruitless time of year for her. It can also explain why her record in Stakes (maidens) is worse than in handicaps.

It is no surprise to see why handicaps are best for Rausing. The evidence of poor record with FTO's, stakes races, and then wins in handicaps points to one trainer - Sir Mark Prescott ;-)

Sir Mark Prescott 20 wins from 70, 29% strike rate, 41% profit.

Rausing also utilises the services of J L Dunlop. We would expect a similar record with Dunlop, and especially in handicaps right? No. Dunlop has only hit 9.3% and returned a loss of 66% with Rausing runners. In handicaps the record is even worse at 5.3% strike rate and 84% loss.

Other trainers she has utilised include G Wragg 13%, 2% profit; I A Balding ( will A M Balding continue with the same record?) 14%, 3% profit; R Guest 12%, 43% loss.

Summary
If you looked at the above stats without knowing who the owner was you would think these were stats for an owner who likes to have a punt. The profile is not what you would expect for someone with such great wealth.

Rausing is happy to hob-nob at the bread and butter courses. She seems eager to land a few good priced touches in handicaps. It is not just lowly handicaps where she does well; she does have a great record in Group races too.

It would seem best to avoid her newcomers and wait for either handicaps or the best Group races.

Below are a couple of systems which could continue to be profitable:

The Rausing Handicap System
Back any runner in a Handicap where last race was in a Maiden race.
Previously 5 from 17, 29.4%, 72% profit

The Rausing Roused 3yo System
Back any 3yo in stakes races from June onwards. No first time out runners.
Previously 13 from 41, 31.7%, 57% profit

The above systems are for turf only. Any contenders will be identified on the daily systems sheet so don't worry about missing the 3 or 4 runners each year ;-)

A dataset has also been created in the free samples section here:

flatstats Free Stats for Miss K Rausing


New for 2003
We get four times as many visitors to the site during the turf season compared to the all weather season, so we know that many of you would not have seen the changes we made through the winter. If you were with us last year, you should see a big difference and notice how much more value the site now is.

Below are a list of new features we have introduced since last year:

  • Upgraded Favourites Database
    New advanced favourites search offering the most comprehensive favourites analyse on the web. Analyse favourite stats for any course, any race type or look at the huge report for all races at every course.
  • Upgraded Race Statistics
    New searching facility with new filter options, and better, more in-depth reports.
  • New Systems Workshop
    New filter options and more in-depth reports. Reports are now 10-30 times faster!
  • Laying Systems Workshop
    Laying is so popular these days that we had to create a laying systems workshop. Just as with the backing systems, the reports are comprehensive and allow you to home in on the best situations for laying.
  • Course Strike Rates on Race Cards
    The racecards now include a popup box which shows the course strike rates for the sire, horse, trainer and jockey. This really is a time saver as you can see in full colour which runners are going to have good or bad stats for the race.
  • 10 Year Analysis Datasets for Major Races
    Utilising the new Systems Workshop facility, you can view 10 year trends of major races. No need to rely on a dog eared newspaper listing five stats for key races: the FlatStats 10 Year analysis reports are very comprehensive, and filterable.

FlatStats has never been better value. For just £34.95 a month (or cheaper if you take out a longer subscription) you can get access to all the stats for 14,656 horses, 452 trainers, 319 jockeys, and 664 sires who are currently active on the flat.

And don't forget, there are race stats, favourite stats, and draw stats which can be filtered into zillions of combinations so that you match the exact race details for any race you wish to analyse.

flatstats Join FlatStats Here


That's all for now! Thank you for reading.

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