Introduction
Hello, and welcome new subscribers.

This is just a quick newsletter to remind you that it is time to come out of hibernation and start punting on the flat turf!

The 2004 Flat Turf Season kicks off on Thursday with wonderful races such as the 23 runner Apprentice handicap, the 16 runner 'formless' Brocklesby and a 20 runner Lady Riders' Handicap.

Many punters prefer to hold off from playing the turf until May. The reason being that the 'form needs to settle down'. Whilst that may be true for form based methods of analysing races, there really is no need to do that with stats based methods.

You can analyse stats at any time of the year. If they tell you that favourites are poor value in March, then you don't back favourites during that month. If they tell you that Barry Hills is one of the best trainers at this time of year then you back him now.

In this newsletter the Flatstats ratings for some of the opening day's meeting are displayed. The ratings are based on stats and whilst they are still in an testing stage, they have proved to be quite accurate in some races. If you want to follow racing on the opening day of the flat, but are totally mystified by the number of runners then try the Flatstats ratings. Even if you prefer to use a form or speed rating based method of analysing races you may find the Flatstats ratings a useful resource to back up your assumptions.

Don't forget that the race more akin to Lotto (the Lincoln) is taking place on Saturday. Early thoughts for this race are that Sir Michael Stoute's Fremen could be the winner. Stoute is a master at winning with horses having their first run of the year - especially in handicaps. You can read some revealing stats on him over at Pittsburgh Phil's Place.

 Pittsburgh Phil's Place - Stoute's Stats

Stephen Mainwaring

Racing Schools Apprentice Handicap
What a race to start the season off with. 23 horses, ridden by mostly inexperienced riders, on a wide, galloping course, where the majority of runners have not raced since last year.

1:50 Doncaster Flatstats Ratings

Top rated is Kid'z'play. The high rating is mostly due to the jockey Nicky Mackay. He is one of the better apprentices riding today. His strike rate is an overall 11.5% on the turf, but more importantly from a punting point of view, he is underbet by the public.

Backing all Mackay's mounts over the past three years has returned a profit of 20.3%. In 2002 the profit was 22.7%, last year the profit was 24.7%.

In order to be different from the crowd, and to try and gain an edge over other methods of handicapping, the Flatstats ratings are not based on strike rates, but on profitability. It is no wonder then that Mackay is top rated in this race whilst most other sources would say that Lisa Jones or Sam Hitchcott are the 'best jockeys'.

As for the horse Kid'z'play - he has a great record too. In total he's won 8 from 50 runs on the turf. Backing all his runs has returned a 45% profit.

Looking closely at his profile reveals that he does well this time of year, is much better on flat, galloping courses such as Doncaster, and loves big fields. The long lay off should not be a problem as he has won before when rested.

Kid'z'play. Each Way

Badsworth Maiden Stakes
This is what can be described as a 'dog's barking race'. Nearly every tipster up and down the land will have a 'whisper' for this race. Some may be tipping up Brittain's Ticero, some may be tipping up Hill's Galvanise.

One thing is evident from this and similar 3yo maiden stakes at Doncaster is that the favourite is well overbet. In most maiden stakes, the favourite wins about 40-50% of the time and returns a slight loss of only a few percent and sometimes a profit. But in this type of race at Doncaster the favourite has a really poor record. Backing the jolly in 21 similar races (not the exact race year on year) has resulted in only 4 wins, a 19.0% strike rate, and a huge loss of 49.1%.

The sample size is a bit small to be reliable, but it is safe to assume that what is happen is that the favourite is being well overbet into false favouritism. It will surely happen again tomorrow as punters phone tipsters and start backing horses silly.

2:20 Doncaster Flatstats Ratings

Mudawin is top rated but he's a probable favourite and is not worth backing.

Trainer Marcus Tregoning is not known for winning so early in the season. It is best to hold off from backing Tregoning's runners for a few months. After the Derby meeting is when he reaches top speed and is profitable for backing.

The biggest negative for Mudawin is that he's a gelding owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum. You have to wonder why such a wealthy owner would be owning a horse which has zero stud value. Hamdan Al Maktoum has an overall strike rate of 18.2% with all his runners, but with his geldings this drops to 7.6%. Backing all his geldings has made a huge 64.3% loss.

Panshir is 2nd rated and looks a much better bet despite being 50/1+. This one has some fair stats. One negative though is the trainer's record with lay off horses. Chris Wall hits only 5% with horses rested for more than 8 weeks.

A big positive for this horse is the ground. If the going is the forecast Good to Soft then Panshir should relish it as Unfuwain runners perform best on this ground.

Panshir. Small Each Way

Mind Games Bearstone Stud Brocklesby Conditions Stakes
This used to be the first race of the year for 2yo's until Lingfield's Winter Derby meeting gazumped it.

Lingfield offering a race 5 days before this race also means that the race can now contain horses who have run previously such as Windy Prospect.

2:55 Doncaster Flatstats Ratings

Windy Prospect is rated third on Flatstats ratings and you have to consider him due to his 'fitness advantage'. He is though, currently trading at a very skinny 4.0 on the exchanges.

Top rated with a special blue coloured rating is Dance Knight. This horse has the best sire for the race, best jockey, and Brian McMahon is a bit of a serial winner of the Brocklesby. Currently trading at around 8.0 on the exchanges this one offers better value.

Dance Knight. Win

Stanleybet Doncaster Mile
This should be the easiest race on the card to analyse with only 10 runners to contend with. The betting, and the ratings show this race to actually be very competitive.

4:00 Doncaster Flatstats Ratings

Middlemarch is top rated but doesn't appeal much. Trainer Jim Goldie is a below average hitter with a poor strike rate with lay off horses. The sire of Middlemarch is the best in the race but due to the trainers record, he may just need the run. One for the notebook next time possibly.

The most likely winner is Sublimity. As posted over at Pittsburgh Phil's Place you should seriously consider backing all Stoute's horses having their first run of the year.

Sublimity is only rated 4th of the field due to Johnny Murtagh having a lowish rating due to him not being a 'Pareto' jockey. An exception can be made this time but after a few wins he will be in the elite club and will thus have better ratings.

Sublimity. Win

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