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Negative Stats
Recently, some racing pundits have stated that using negative stats is futile.
Saying a horse will lose a race because of one negative stat is crazy, they
say.
Well good luck to them, and long may they continue to state stuff like that.
The more punters believe that negative stats can not work, the more negative
stats will work!
Negative stats identify weaknesses in a horse. This could be stats about a
horse's record on the going or the course, the sire's FTO (first time out) stat
for debutantes, or a trainer's record in a particular type of race.
Horses, sires, trainers, jockeys and even owners usually follow the same
patterns. Whatever it is they do, they continue to do what they have always
done. This means that they often show flaws or biases which can be exploited by
stats punters.
One of the strongest negative stats is the sires FTO stat. This stat shows
how well a sire's offspring have performed with horses running for the first
time.
Quite often stable whispers may hype up a debutante, or a debutante may look
fit and well in the parade ring. But nothing can compare to the real experience
of racing for the very first time and this is why the sire's FTO stats are so
important.
Using the new Flatstats Analysis Tables (* new feature to be launched later
this week) shows which sires are worst with FTO's.
Right at the bottom of the table are sires such as:
Keen with 0 wins from 77 runs
Titus Livius 0 from 49
Entrepreneur 1 from 80
Bijou D'Inde 1 from 44
Pundits may say that some FTO's are unfit and are going off at unfancied
prices. What about those FTO's who are more fancied in the market - the hyped
horses, the ones who looked fit and well in the parade ring?
One way to check this is to look at the FTO stats for horses who are in the
first three of the betting. Using the Flatstats Analysis Table, choosing Sires,
FTO and SP position 1st, 2nd and 3rd reveals the following:
Wolfhound, 3.0% strike rate 92% loss
Groom Dancer(USA) 6.9%, 86.5% loss
Puissance(USA) 6.1%, 74.2% loss
Also at the bottom of the table are some pretty well known sires such as:
Salse(USA) 14.3%, 69.7% loss
Selkirk 9.1%, 69.3% loss
Efisio 10.4%, 45.0% loss
Remember, these are the FTO stats for sires where their debutante is in the
first three of the betting. The sires at the bottom of the table are performing
really poorly with single figure strike rates and huge losses. They are lagging
well behind the sires at the top of the table who are hitting 30%+ strike rates
and returning 40%,50%,60%+ profits.
It is not just FTO stats which are significant. There are other stats such
as a sires record over certain distances.
Recently Beejay went off the hot 5-1 favourite in a 20 runner handicap at
Newbury. The horse had won it's race prior to that and looked to have a great
chance on form.
Stats punters would have laid this horse because there was one strong
negative stat about him - his sires record with young horses running over 7f.
Sire Piccolo has a weak record in 7f races in general. But if you look at
his 7f stats for each age you will see some pretty significant stats.
Piccolo 7f stats
| Age |
Wins
| Runs
| Win%
| I.V.
| A/E |
£1 Win
| ROI%
|
| 2yo |
4 |
116 |
3.4% |
0.80 |
0.41 |
-£98.00 |
-84.5% |
| 3yo |
1 |
115 |
0.9% |
0.20 |
0.12 |
-£107.50 |
-93.5% |
| 4yo |
6 |
56 |
10.7% |
2.50 |
1.11 |
£0.00 |
0.0% |
| 5yo |
2 |
12 |
16.7% |
3.88 |
1.36 |
£4.00 |
33.3% |
The race Beejay had previously won was over 6f. The distance for the Newbury
race was 7f and as Beejay was a 3yo.... well you can see what a dire record
Piccolo runners have over 7f at such an early age.
Result: Beejay finished last weakening from 2f out.
More recently Distinctly Game was a warm favourite for a 2yo Maiden Stakes
at Wolverhampton. The horse had run twice prior to this race and on both
occasions, he had finished second.
Those races were on turf and as the Wolverhampton race was on the All
Weather, were punters wise to let this horse go off as the favourite?
No! Stats punters would have seen the poor record of the sire on the All
Weather and laid the horse.
Sire Mind Games offspring had won just 10 races from 272 attempts on sand.
That's a strike rate of just 3.7%. The loss backing all those runners was
48.5%.
What stood out more was Mind Games record at the course.
Mind Games on the All Weather
| Course
| Wins |
Runs |
Win% |
I.V. |
A/E
| £1 Win |
ROI% |
| Lingfield |
4 |
69 |
5.8% |
1.58 |
0.54 |
-£32.50 |
-47.1% |
| Southwell |
5 |
112 |
4.5% |
1.22 |
0.61 |
-£49.00 |
-43.8% |
| Wolverhampton |
1 |
91 |
1.1% |
0.30 |
0.13 |
-£50.00 |
-54.9% |
How can anyone back a horse with such a poor sire course record? Mind Games
has only ever won 1 race from 91 at Wolverhampton
Result: Distinctly Game finished 2nd again!
Some may say that the majority of Mind Games sand runners were no-hoper
donkeys who went off at big prices. Whilst it is true that more than half of
them did go off at big prices there were plenty of Mind Games runners on sand
who were fancied.
His record with favourites stands out. Mind Games has now had 14 runners on
the sand who went off as the favourite. None of them have won.
It is possible to write a complete book on negative stats. No space here in
this newsletter to list them all so below are a quick summary of some of them.
You can also find more of them at the Flatstats site by using the new
Flatstats Analysis Tables (*)
Sires
Green Dancer(USA) in Group Races 2.3% strike rate,
83.7% loss
Selkirk(USA) in Group Races 5.7%, 74.8% loss
Celtic Swing at Grade 1 courses 2.7%, 84.4% loss
Makbul at Stiff courses 2.5%, 82.2% loss
Trainers
S R Bowring Lay Off runners (not run for at 8 weeks or
more) 0 wins from 115
C F Wall First Time Out 0 wins from 151
D Nicholls with Fillies 2.8%, 69.9% loss
M J Ryan Claiming Races 3.2%, 83.8% loss
Jockeys
S Carson Selling Races 1.0%, 85.0% loss
D Corby 12f+ 0 wins from 52
S Hitchcott Soft or Heavy Going 3.1%, 68.0% loss
N Pollard Firm Going 2.5%, 88.3% loss
Owners
Mr Guy Reed First Time Out 0.8%, 95.5% loss
Mr W J Gredley at Newmarket 3.0%, 78.2% loss
Mr H W Ponsonby Favourites 20.4%, 50.9% loss
The Queen in Sprints 9.0%, 61.4% loss
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