Introduction
Hello, and welcome new subscribers.

First, an apology. This newsletter should have been sent out on Christmas Eve. Unfortunately, on the eve of Christmas Eve our mailserver crashed. Have you ever tried to get support for a mailserver over the holidays? There was more chance of getting a bookie to lay evens that it would be a white Christmas in Lapland. The mailserver is back online again now. It is taking me ages to sift through the backlog so please accept my apologies if you have not yet received a reply. If you don't receive a reply by Wednesday your message has probably disappeared into a black hole. Please send it again.

Someone hoping for a better 2003 than 2002 is Sir Mark Prescott. He's just had his worst ever all weather season by only achieving a 15% strike rate. This is well below the 30% he has been hitting over the past few years. Why is his strike rate so low? What's changed this year?

On the 1st of January all horses became one year older. This creates some tremendous flaws in all weather racing. Horses who were 2yo's in December are now 3yo's. 3yo's are now 4yo etc. Of course this happens with jump racing too, but over the jumps the age increment is not as severe. An 8yo chaser becoming 9yo is 12% older. But on the all weather a 2yo becoming 3yo is 50% older!

So what kind of things should we look out for? Well, an article we did last year highlighted 6yo's in certain selling races as being quite profitable. In this newsletter we revisit those stats and uncover a few more.

One other thing to look out for after January the 1st is 2yo's who ran badly late back end. Some sires are poor with their 2yo's. When the horses mature and run in races of mixed ages they are usually nicely handicapped. OK, this is not going to happen on 1st January as the horses themselves do not know the time of year, but it will happen with many horses over the next few months.

There are only 10 weeks to go to the start of the new flat turf season! Already four lucky persons have won a free subscription to Flatstats for the whole of the turf season. Find out later in this newsletter if you are one of them!

Stephen Mainwaring

Profiting from Prescott
The average strike rate for all trainers is 9.6%, so if a trainer manages to wins 15% he's doing well right? Well for the smaller yard a 15% strike rate is very good. But for a top Newmarket trainer such as Sir Mark Prescott, 15% is a very poor performance.

Over the past few years Prescott has regularly achieved strike rates of above 30% on the all weather. But in 2002 he only achieved half that figure.

You have to wonder why this is. Has his string had some kind of virus? No because on the turf in 2002 he recorded one of his best ever seasons. On the turf last year he hit 27%.

The reason could be because he is running the wrong type of horse on the sand.

By default, or design, Prescott now seems to prefer to run horses with good turf pedigrees, but poor all weather pedigrees. Here are a few examples:

All of the above horses have sires with well below average strike rates for the all weather. And yet with the exception of Jewel Of India (who left Prescott to join Peter Hobbs and won last week), all of the sires have turf strike rates at least twice as high.

Ask any punter about Prescott and they are sure to say that he is clever at winning in handicap races with horses who have only had a few runs in maiden races. Whilst this may be true (and certainly there is nothing wrong with that), what we could be seeing now is a new twist to try and put punters and the handicapper off the trail.

Horses running on the sand, who have little chance of winning on breeding, are effectively going to obtain low handicap marks ready for winning on the turf from March onwards.

Will Prescott have a better strike rate on the all weather in 2003? Probably not. He may well though have his best ever turf season if the above horses are primed for handicaps.

Favourites
On the all weather, the favourite wins about 31% of the time. The loss backing all those favourites is 11.4%. These exact figures though, are too generic and not very helpful. A favourite is sure to have a better chance of winning a maiden stakes race than a competitive handicap. A favourite is more likely to win a 5 runner race than a 15 runner race etc.

You can never have too much information when analysing favourites. The more you know about the favourite in a certain race the better.

Flatstats now offers five different ways of analysing favourites:

• Race Stats
  Analysing past performances of similar races
• Horse or Sire Stats
  Analysing the horse or sires individual profile
• Quick Search
  A list of favourites performance for different race types at each track
• Favourites Tables
  A list of favourites win and place performance for different race types at all tracks
• Advanced Favourites Analysis
  Detailed analysis of the Flatstats favourites database

The race stats shows a typical profile of the winner in the race. If the race is good for favourites then this is indicated with a high ROI% for the SP Pos 1 (i.e. the first favourite). Race stats are also useful for seeing how well the second and third favourites perform, and how well the first three in the betting perform as a group.

e.g. In maiden stakes you may see that the winner has come from the first three in the betting 90% of the time. You should really just concentrate on the market leaders when you see figures like that.

Horse and sire profiles are very useful for identifying false favourites. These are horses who are hyped up. Good recent form could fool pundits and punters into thinking the horse is a good thing. If you check the profile, you could see chinks in the armour such as running over an inadequate trip, the interval since last ran is too short, the field size too big, the course is not suitable etc.

The quick search and favourites tables are useful guides for obtaining a quick overview of the chances of the favourites. The tables show the profitabilities in different colours. Look out for any blue stats which indicate a type of race which is generous for favourite backers. Any red stats indicate that the favourite has been very much overbet in the past and a lay of the favourite could be considered.

The most powerful tool though is the advanced favourites analysis function. This is similar to the flatstats system checker in that it allows you to select a whole host of parameters and then see a detailed report of where and when the favourite does best at. Here are a couple of examples:

2yo races
In all 2yo races on the sand, the favourite has won 33.2% and made a loss of 11.3%. Scrolling down the report reveals that 2yo favourites who are colts has hit 40.8% and returned a profit of 6.7%; fillies have won just 29% and returned a loss of 21.8%. That is no surprise though.

Other golden nuggets highlighted in the report include 2yo favs who last ran within a week. They have won 39.8% and returned 4.9%. 2yo favs with trainers who have a 15% or more strike rate at the course have won 41.0% and returned 3.9%.

Now what happens if we ask the database to report 2yo favourites who are colts, last ran within a week and the trainer has a 15% or more strike rate at the course?

Well that exact condition has only found a total of 19 bets in the past ten years! so that is not of much use even though it has made a 9.3% profit. But checking 2yo favourites colts where the trainer has a 15% or more strike rate at the course produces:

103 wins from 211, 48.8% strike rate, 19.8% ROI%

3yo+ Handicaps
Backing all favourites in 3yo+ Handicaps on the sand has hit 24.4% and made a loss of 13.8%.

Scrolling down the list reveals that favourites in those races who started at 5/1 or more (yes there were 141 of them) returned a huge loss of 42.9%. Favs who have not run for 8 weeks or more lost 43.6%. And of course, favourites who were female made big losses too.

Recently on the all weather a few odds-on shots went off in 3yo+ Handicaps. Punters find these scary. Are they too short to back? Are they too good to lay?

Since 1993, 62 favourites went off at odds-on in all weather 3yo+ handicaps. 33 of them won which is a strike rate of 53.2%. Backing them all made a loss of 9.0%.

The advanced analysis report reveals that any odds-on fav who has won previously at the course is probably a false favourite and should be avoided. Those who had not previously won at the course (about a third of the total) returned the following result:

16 wins from 21, 76.2% strike rate, 31.6% ROI%

 Race Stats
 Horse Profiles
 Sire Profiles
 Quick Search
 Favourites Tables
 Advanced Favourites Analysis

January Stats
Admiral Rous invented the Weight for Age Scale back in the mid 19th Century. Little then did he realise that 150 years later we would be racing 2 and 3yo's in the winter. If he was around today, he'd probably look at the weights allocated to horses in January and conclude that racing in the 21st century is flawed.

The weights allocated to certain horses is flawed. In January, 3yo's hold a big edge over other ages in 3yo+ maiden races. A few days earlier these 3yo's were just 2yo's. Whoever decided the weights allocated to the 3yo's in January is obviously being too lenient with them.

In December, 3yo's in 3yo+ maiden stakes have an impact value of 1.06 which means that they just about win as much as they should do. But in January, 3yo's in the same type of race have an impact value of 1.38 which means that as a group, they win more than their fare share of races.

The weight the 3yo's are allowed to carry in those races is usually 8-7 for males and 8-2 for fillies. The older horses though have to shoulder 18lbs more than their 3yo counterparts . Clearly this is too much.

We did an article on this a year ago. Nothing much has changed since then. Unless Admiral Rous is reincarnated then nothing probably will for quite some time.

 January Age Biases

Certain trainers excel this time of year. In the past 10 years the following trainers have recorded the biggest profits:

January is a good month for stats followers. This time of year many jumps races are abandoned. This creates a big influx of money into all weather betting mediums. Jumps punters who do not have a clue about the all weather will predominantly back the big name trainers and jockeys, fashionable sires and be influenced by newspapers and media pundits. Look out for horses fancied in the market and use the stats to find chinks in the armour.

Systems Analysis
The systems checker we introduced a few weeks ago is proving very popular. More of our servers resources are being used for crunching the data for the various systems.

The systems checker is not complete yet but it is still a very useful tool. What you can do is load up a dataset such as 'Top Weights in Handicaps', 'LTO Winners within 7 days' etc. and then run a full analysis report to see where and when the system is good or bad at.

Here is an example:

First Run on AW Favourites
Choose the First Run on AW Favs dataset and then click 'Go' to see the raw results. The report shows that backing these runners has hit a strike rate of 33.5% and returned a loss of 13.3%.

If you scroll down the report you will see profitable and unprofitable conditions for backing this type of runner (obviously the most unprofitable conditions are good for laying). Looking at the Gender section reveals that the old maxim of not backing fillies holds true. In this type of situation, the first run on AW fav filly makes a loss of 27.5%. Colts on the other hand, have made a profit of 3.1%.

Go back to the form and remove all genders except colts by removing the ticks next to fillies, geldings etc. Then click 'Go' again.

This time, the raw results show that the First Run on AW Favourite who is a colt has hit a strike rate of 43% and returned the 3.1% profit. Scrolling down the report again reveals more profitable situations such as 3yo races 19.3% profit, Maiden races 8.8% profit. Unprofitable conditions are runners running within 2 weeks, 3yo+ races, claiming and selling races etc.

This should give you plenty of information for deciding whether to back or lay the colt.

With some datasets the profitable conditions leap out of the page, with others it is hard to find them and persevering will be going too far down a 'back fitted' route. One thing is for sure, this new online systems checker is a very useful tool for punters.

If you have not tried it yet you can view the free samples here:

 All Weather Systems
 Turf Systems

The Great Racing Uncertainty
Over the sticks you can expect horses to fall, unseat the rider, pull up etc. It is all part of the great racing uncertainty. But how often do you think this kind of thing happens on the flat?

If you include all horses who pulled up, unseated the rider, refused to race, slipped up, were brought down etc., would you say that there were one in a 100, 500, or a 1000 runners on the flat experiencing a mishap preventing them from completing the course?

In the last five years the answer is one in every 285. Since 01-Jan-98, 881 horses were unable to complete the course due to a mishap.

That may not seem a lot (and minuscule compared to the 247,688 who did finish the race) but there is a worrying trend appearing.

The rate of failures is increasing each year with 2002 being the worst year ever.

Cynics are saying that the introduction of Exchanges is creating the temptation for cheating. If you look at the stats for 'fallers' on the flat you will see that their rate is increasing too. In 1998 35 jockeys fell in a flat race. In 2002 53 jockeys fell. That is a 32% increase in real terms.

Now you would have to be nuts to accuse jockeys of deliberately falling off a horse hurtling down a track at near 40mph but there are two things to note here. The first is that this year there seems to be a higher incidence of jockeys falling out of the stalls: there are more incidents of the horse stumbling, rearing, swerving, and ducking as the stalls open.

The second reason is probably due to a change to an American style of riding. Jockeys are assuming a higher riding stance. Some of the new smaller, lighter weight saddles could be creating more fallers too.

The whole point of this article is to point out that there is no great racing certainty. Nothing can be relied upon 100%. No bet is a mortgage job.

If you include all the above reasons for failure with disqualifications (although they are into decline as Stewards follow a more punter friendly line), boxed in, jockeys dropping hands, failing to weigh in, voided races, saddle slipping, lost irons, dehydrated jockey etc. then you'll soon realise how uncertain racing really is.

One positive note to end up with though, if a mishap could happen to your runner, it could happen to any of the other runners in the race. In a ten runner race, if a mishap was to happen to one horse, it is 9/1 that the mishap happens to your horse and 1/9 it happens to another. Don't have nightmares.

Claiming Races
In handicap races the outright top weight wins about 20% of the time. Or to put it another way, one in every five handicaps is won by the top weight.

In claiming stakes races the figure is even higher. The top weight in claiming stakes wins 26% of the time which is slightly better than one in four.

When looking for winners in claiming races it is best to start at the top of the weights and work your way down.

The reason being is that the most expensive horses are at the top of the weights, and the dross are at the bottom. In these races the connections can choose how much weight the horse carries. The higher the weight, the bigger the price it has on its head. The lower the weight, the cheaper it is for sale.

Obviously, if connections value their horse then they would not undersell it. They would place it right at the top of the weights scale to attract the best price they can get.

There are other things to look out for in claiming races.

• Days Since Win
  The shorter the time since the horse last won, the greater its chance of winning and profit. Horses who are maidens rarely win claiming races.
• SP Position
• The shorter the price, the more likely a horse is to win. That's obvious of course! But in claiming races the shorter priced runners are very much underbet. If you had backed every runner who started at less than 2/1 in a 3yo+ claiming race you would have made a 3% profit from 234 bets. Outsiders rarely win.
• Age
  3yo's are the worst age group in 3yo+ claiming races. If connections are willing to risk losing a horse at an early stage in its career then they can not be confident about it's ability.

A quick and easy system is to follow the lowest price horse carrying 9-4 or more.

Following all these selections has returned a modest profit but we can increase it by weeding out the no-hopers. No bet if the selection is a 3yo or has not won at the course before.

Using this method since 01-Jan-93 to 28-Dec-02 has found 105 winners from 256 selections. This is a strike rate of 41.0%. The profit returned to a £1 level stake was £51.97 or 20% ROI%

3yo+ Claiming Stakes System: Back the lowest priced horse carrying 9st-4lbs or more if the horse is 4yo or older and has won at the course before.

Special Offer & Competition
We must be crazy to keep giving you special offers.

The latest offer for you is '3 for the price of 2'. Choose a 3 month subscription and you only pay for 2.

£39.95 is the price. This works out at less than 44p a day.

*A 3 month subscription now covers the start of the turf 2003 season! If you sign up today, you get access to the site for the start of the flat (Lincoln meeting at Doncaster etc.) at an all weather season price! This current special offer will expire on the 10th of January so don't delay. Sign up today.

 join flatstats here

T Lewis, D Watts, and L Keys are already lucky winners of a free subscription to the 2003 turf season. They were selected at random by our computer.

There are still three opportunities for members to win in the January, February and March draws, so sign up for a three month subscription and have three chances of winning!

We also ran a special Christmas Eve draw for newsletter subscribers. The lucky person who was drawn at random was.........Dan Nettle. Congratulations to Dan. He wins a free Flatstats subscription for the whole of the flat turf season 2003.