Badly Drawn Favourites

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Badly Drawn Favourites

Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:20 pm

The Flatstats draw index identifies draw ranges that are either over or underbet by the public. A high blue coloured number means that horses running from that stall range are winning more races than their odds suggest, whilst a big minus red coloured filter shows draw ranges that tend to underperform.

Using the draw index you can create a laying system for favourites running from bad draws. All you need to do is to find favourites that are running from a draw range that is red in colour!

1. SP Pos = 1 AND
2. Draw Range < -30

That's basically it but there does need to be one more filter. The draw index has a special value of -99. This means is a figure that indicates it was not possible to create a draw index (the field size was too small, or there was insufficient previous results found, which could be used to create the draw index). Thus you need to add another filter:

1. SP Pos = 1 AND
2. Draw Range < -30 AND
3. Draw Range > -99 AND

If you create that using the Laying System Builder and run the report you will see these results:

338 races, 75.4% successful lays, £0.30 profit (0% ROI) with 5% commission

A profit is a profit! But clearly that's not worth bothering with. In order to make it more profitable we need to find more extreme draw biases. We need to find the favourites who are running from impossible draw ranges: those with much more negative Draw Indexes.

What you can do is to change the Draw Range filter to something like:

2. Draw Range < -60

Doing so produces these results:

42 races, 90.5% successful lays, £29.52 profit (19.6% ROI) with 5% commission

:o That's a screamer! This is a laying system, which finds favourites that have only won 9.5% of the time and returns a relatively huge profit 8-)

Unfortunately you will only find around two qualifying favourites a month!

Try lowering the draw range to say -40. This is still profitable and will find around 6 qualifiers a month. Here's the dataset:

Laying Badly Drawn Favourites

This has produced a 3.3% profit (with 5% commission). You can use this as a base, look at the draw index for any qualifiers and the worse the draw index the higher your stake could be _icp1
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Badly Drawn Favourites

Postby nigel » Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:30 pm

Phil i've not been able to work out how to actually create an alert but would certainly like to do so for this system...can you please (in simple terms) advise the steps needed to create it
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Badly Drawn Favourites

Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Sat Jun 09, 2012 12:48 pm

The quickest way is to clone the example I gave above.

Click on the link, run the report, then click the Snapshot button. This will allow you to save a copy of the one I created earlier.

Fill in the name of the system and notes if you wish then make sure you check the following boxes:

Alert: [X] Use Betfair Market for SP Filters [X]

This will then alert you whenever a favourite is running from a draw range that has an index worse than -40.

Don't forget that this can change during the day!

a) A favourite at 11:45 may be second favourite by 2:45
b) Changes to the field size or going can change the draw index. A draw index of -48 at 11:45 may change to -37 by 2:45 !
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Badly Drawn Favourites

Postby nigel » Sat Jun 09, 2012 1:23 pm

many thanks, think i've done it correctly.

Is there a library of systems that can be accessed and saved without having to go through the machinations of creating them ?
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Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Sat Jun 09, 2012 2:25 pm

Yes I need to create a table showing all the free systems; make them searchable etc.

These will be systems created by not just by myself but by all users that have set the viewable option to everyone.
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Postby LEMOSS » Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:27 pm

to this system lets add (jockey)course A/E < 1 . 28 runs no wins 28 losing favs .

now pehaps change sp filter to fancied 118 runs 113 wins 12% return at Risk . just add the note double up when fav
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