The £5 million Scoop6 on Saturday

[manychester]

Good news for all flatstats players as Lingfield Park looks set to stage some of this Saturday's Scoop6 legs
three handicaps from Lingfield Park plus two handicaps from Huntingdon's jumps programme and maybe one from Haydock could make-up the scoop 6 bet.
http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/news.sd?psection=racingpost.co.uk&page=News&category=Top%20Stories&story_uid=1003465

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Betfair have opened a new market "How much will be bet on the scoop6".

This is an event where you can bet on how much will be bet in the pool for this week only- it does not include roll overs.

There are a few things to consider here.

1. The syndicates have tapped out.
It could be that previous weeks have drained resources and they have little reserves left in the pot. The Scoop6 squirrel said about last week's bet that he was only staking around £50,000 that week in order to keep some stake for this week. His initial play was to outlay about £100,000 so will he only be able to play the same £50,000 this week?

What about Harry? Does he have the stake left or can he call on reserves?

2. Here come the Asian punters
This is now big money so it is sure to attract overseas syndicates. Will they swell the pools or will they make more money in a claiming race at Sha TIn?

3. Good Marketing Tote
If this bet is marketed right there could be hundreds of thousands of Haddock punters putting their £2s in the pool.

The favourite money is on "£4 million and over". Incredibly, before the Betfair market opened, fixed odds bookies (including the Tote) offered 50/1 on this bet and had to slash it to 5/2 as punters chased this down to 14/1, 10/1, 8/1 and then 5/2.

I think there is a clue here. The Totes own odds compilers must have a lot of data on this and clearly thought that £4 million or more was the Elvis on the Moon bet. They are assuming that no where near £4 million will be bet just on Saturday so offered the crazy odds.

I think that a lay of £4 million+ at around 3.25 is a good bet. There will be many thinking that a stupid amount will be bet on Saturday but unless the Asian money does arrive I think the total will be more like £2.5m.

£4 million and over. Lay.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Some punters backed the £4m+ at 2.7 overnight.

I think this and the money bet on Totesport were made by punters who don't understand the rules. The bet is "How much money will be bet in the scoop6 this week." It looks as if some punters think that the bet is how much will the pools total be.

The pool was £3 million and is expected to be £5 million so I think some punters have not realised this and have erroneously made a 50/1 shot the favourite.

---

The Totesport site are running their 5% cashback promotion again. Place bets on the scoop6, jackpot, toteswinger (this bet is still going - there is a rollover of £140,000+ today but don't even think about it), placepot and exacta and get 5% of your stake back.

[mrcombustible]

Last 4 races at Lingfield included

[Pittsburgh Phil]

They are clearly worried about the weather prospects for the jumps meetings. Looks like frost overnight / early saturday could put meetings in doubt.

What odds the jumps meetings are called off and 7,000 tickets share the win pool from just the four aw races?

[jth]

i suppose we ought to have a dabble-providing Many ,Dylan and Neil can sort out the 2 farmers races.

[manychester]

I am away for the weekend jth, the boss has me down for some chistmas shopping in York but I will post my selections later

SCOOP 6 RACES
http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/card_meeting.sd?r_date=2008-11-22&scoop6=y

2:45 HAYDOCK: Timeform Betfair Racing Club Handicap Chase (Class 2) 3m GD-SFT
Possol Only once been out of the first 4 and has had its prep, Q.. will it stay the extra 3F, well yes looking @ its breeding by Robin Des Pres(FR) - Alberade(FR) (Un Desperado (FR )(10.9f). Was 3ed in the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) on that day was also hampered by a faller early on, he stayed on well from the second last, the winner of that race was FINGER ONTHE PULSE who went on to win @ Cheltenham. The only - here is the horse is a 5yo
WON 15/2---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:30 HUNTINGDON: totescoop6 Millionaire Maker H/C HDL (Class 4) £3,252.50 3m2f GOOD
Millards Lad has had its prep was in touch, still in contention when blundered and unseated rider 4 out LTO in a 12 grand race class 2, this looks more his grade & weight, Jamie Moore takes the mount here and thats a big+ here with there being amateur jockeys in the race, its a poor race for so much money to be rolling onto & the danger looks to be Heathcliff WON 11/2 whos stable is comeing to hand but has 222 days against him
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Scoop 6 Races from Lingfield
2:10 Better Prices, Bigger Wins At ladbrokes.com Handicap (Cl2) Capricorn Run on a winning mark having won this race last year, also visor back on today
2:40 E B F Play Bingo At ladbrokes.com Fillies' Handicap (Cl4) Cat Whistle the one here, the trip to me looks no problem & stable in form
3:20 Bet At Ladbrokes On 0800 777 888 Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (Cl1) Harvest Queen by Spinning World(good a/w stats & stepping up) (9.0f) - Royal Bounty(IRE) (Generous (IRE)(11.8f) so should be able to step up, Eddie Ahern is a +
3:50 Better Prices, Bigger Wins At ladbrokes.com Stakes (Listed Race) (Cl1) scoop 6 buster here Philario is my selection, (CLASS 1) races is no problem for this one, has won a 21K off 9-0
All 6 above win bets & e/w doubles & trebles

[neilwilby]

Am going to Haydock tomorrow to see Kauto Star in the flesh. It looks a very competitive day's racing and I can pass on a very good word for LEAC AN SCAIL in the BBC televised 1.05 race. This horse has improved leaps and bounds and if the 16 declared stand their ground then this is a very good each way bet at 12/1

With regard to the Scoop 6 race at Haydock, my favourite jump horse runs in this: Naunton Brook is a big, imposing chaser who jumps and gallops to some purpose. He is partnered often by tomorrow's jockey, Dave England, who fires him at the fences with confidence. They will burn a lot of these off, if the horse is on song, and anything that gets past will know they have been in a battle.

I am with Many in fancying one of them might be Possol. The Nicholls horse, Osaka D'Airy, will be overbet because of it's connections and form figures and the same comments would apply to the Hoobbs horse, Gold Medallist. Neither will stay in my opinion. I would also be against Rambling Minster because this might be too much of a speed test, so would have I Hear Thunder as my third horse. This one generally runs in this class, is in form, prospers in fast run races - and off bottom weight should be there at the end.

At Huntingdon, I think this race is virtually impossible. I started with the 40/1 outsider to try and rule some out but if General Alarm gets it's own way out in front it could, concievably, stay there. The presence of this race means that I will rule myself out of the Scoop 6 rollover-fest. Good luck to all Flatstatters playing in the Pool......

[manychester]

neilwilby P F Nicholls looks the man to follow here good bumper in the last
Dare Me by Bob Back

[0909dylan]

2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10.............1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 10, 11, 12................3, 4, 7, 11, 14..............2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11................2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 14...............4, 5, 8, 11...........61,440 lines................As last week, the Perm has a 26% chance of picking ALL the winners.......so you are investing 123 grand for a 26% chance of winning 4.5 million,so its the best "value bet " of the weekend. .........Sadly,I have not recieved any cheques for my 25% "Consultancy Fee " for last weeks winning perm,so I guess no-one gave it a go.

[0909dylan]

2, 5, 9...............2, 3, ..........3, 4, 11...........3, 5, 6, 8, 11...........4, 7, 14...........4, 5, 8...............810 Lines..........Have not got the STATS to say what the % chance of winning on this one............and if it comes up you will probably be sharing the pot with other punters............I still want my 25% though.

[jth]

If i was scooping and Im not

Id do these

leg 1 Banker My Gacho--Possibles Atlantic story,and Capricorn run

Leg 2 Banker Miss Brown to you Possibles Paradise dancer

Leg 4 Ahjar + Philatelist + baharah 3 bankers


Leg 6 Death leg Banker Barry dennis's Bismark Ceremonial Jade

legs 3 I hear thunder, Possol and nanton brook ( Many + Neil + bottom weight bumper bred) )

leg 5 Millards Lad and Heathcliff (agree many-both bumper bred)

[0909dylan]

This is going to be even easier than last week. .........Even the SMALL PERM got 2, 5, 9 in the correct order. ............156 quid Tricast.

[jth]

Dylan :The problem is if you're up 5 million in 2 hours time are you not a tad worried that the run of the mill bet , say a claimer at southwell at 11.30 am will lose a bit of its old flavour?

[0909dylan]

Dylan :The problem is if you're up 5 million in 2 hours time are you not a tad worried that the run of the mill bet , say a claimer at southwell at 11.30 am will lose a bit of its old flavour?

As PIPPEX always tells us............"treat each race as an individual puzzle to solve "