2010, 2000 Guineas

[wim]

I'm having an early look to see if there is a special one in here somewhere.
What we need is a score of 100+ on Wim Ratings.
I'm working through them in Betfair order

CANFORD CLIFFS 47, I would hoover up all that backing money if I had it spare.
STEINBECK 68, first season Sire so his score could improve over the coming months.
CAPE BLANCO 77
ALFRED NOBEL 81
KINGSFORT 80
ARCANO 57
XTENSION 60
POETS VOICE 53 first season Sire so his score could improve over the coming months.
DICK TURPIN 45 first season Sire so his score could improve over the coming months.
AZMEEL 45 first season Sire so his score could improve over the coming months.
SILVER GRECIAN 57
RADIOHEAD 60
AWZAAN 45
STUNNING VIEW 65


I don't think the winner is in that bunch, the 3 rated between 77 and 81 are maybes.

[wim]

EMPEROR CLAUDIUS 85
CLASSIC COLORI 56
RAKAAN 44
MONSIEUR CHEVALIER 49
BIG AUDIO 44
VISCOUNT NELSON 107
SHOWCASING 77
EMIRATES DREAM 89
AL ZIR 106 (he's jumped the que, I wanted a look)

Two there that tops 100. I wish I had done this before AL ZIR ran.

[wim]

ORPEN GREY 37
BLACK SNOWFLAKE 89
ZANZIBARI 87
TREBLE JIG 74
KHATTAAB 68


That's the lot which are in the Betfair betting. I'm more happy now about backing VISCOUNT NELSON even though I backed it at 30s and not the 40s that are available now. AL ZIR is one I'm considering backing, but I would want 30s+.
I think there will be more contenders to enter the betting in the future.

[wim]

VISCOUNT NELSON 107
AL ZIR 106
EMIRATES DREAM 89
BLACK SNOWFLAKE 89
ZANZIBARI 87
EMPEROR CLAUDIUS 85
SHAKESPEAREAN 84
ALFRED NOBEL 81
STEINBECK 80
KINGSFORT 80
ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL 77
SHOWCASING 77
CAPE BLANCO 77
STUNNING VIEW 76
TREBLE JIG 74
COLONIAL 72
QUADRILLE 71
KHATTAAB 68
POETS VOICE 65
AZMEEL 62
XTENSION 60
RADIOHEAD 60
ARCANO 57
SILVER GRECIAN 57
CLASSIC COLORI 56
BIG AUDIO 56
DICK TURPIN 56
MONSIEUR CHEVALIER 49
CANFORD CLIFFS 48
AWZAAN 45
RAKAAN 44
ORPEN GREY 37


I'm a bit bored, not much action on the racing front so I've updated this table. The horses with first season sires have now got a different rating as I've modified the formula. There are 2 new entrants, SHAKESPEAREAN & ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL with decent scores.
The 2 at the top are still the best bred 2yo that I've seen so far this season but I still think there could be something else to come.

[pippex]

Hi WIm

Viscount Nelson's female family below..

have a good look at the offspring of the 6th and 10th dam...very impressive

http://exhorse.co.kr/horse/blood/moma_l ... t%20Nelson

[wim]

Pippex, I've been looking at that Korean website. It seems good for the better horses. I did get a bit excited about the info on there but when I tried some unknown 2/3yo it didn't know them which is a shame.

[pippex]

yes Wim

if only it had every horse it would be the holy grail

[wim]

The last 10 2000 Guineas winners with a Wim Rating:

SEA THE STARS 106
HENRYTHENAVIGATOR 101
COCKNEY REBEL 46
GEORGE WASHINGTON 98
FOOTSPEPSINTHESAND 83
HAAFHD 78
REFUSE TO BEND 99
ROCK OF GIBRALTAR 82
GOLAN 69
KING'S BEST 98

Average rating is 86. The lowest rated was COCKNEY REBEL with a rating of 46, so there is still hope for Canford Cliffs but slim I think. 7 of the last 10 had a rating of 80 or more, 5 had 90 or more.
3 of the last 10 came out of OBM (the ones in Italics). So what do I do with these OBM, the scores above are with an adjustment for OBM, without the adjustment there scores are thus:

SEA THE STARS 117
HENRYTHENAVIGATOR 101
COCKNEY REBEL 46
GEORGE WASHINGTON 98
FOOTSPEPSINTHESAND 83
HAAFHD 85
REFUSE TO BEND 99
ROCK OF GIBRALTAR 82
GOLAN 69
KING'S BEST 105

That gives an average of 89.

If anyone has input of OBM (old banger mares) then let me know, at the minute i'm docking points for mares that are 17 and older.

On my visit to Chantilly my guide who was very knowledgeable, family had and bred horses for many years said that the age of a mare doesn't matter, and the 1st progeny or the last could be the best.

[jth]

Wim

The only data i have seen refer to OBM's with a large no of kids. There is a definite fall in ability cf Younger mares but i reason only because they have'nt been in a state of permanent pregnancy

But if an OBM starts having children late ie a small brood -the one bit of data i have seen in the book shows that you have to be a right old bat to see a fall off in progeny ability.This will be the general experience inc that of your Chantilly guide

ie on Wim ratings I would be docking points for BR rather than OBM-- or looked at another way i would not be docking OBM s with 7 or less nippers.

and if you are measuring the contribution from each tail line dam -then i think you should take into account the BR of your contributing tail dam.

Can you give us a bit more of a review of your Chantilly trip -i really fancy doing that next year? Is the tour in French--? How long does it last? is it all on foot?Which trainers stables did you get to see.?

and what did you think of Chantilly-its gorgeous is'nt it?

Re your guineas Winners-- i was surprised Cockney rebel had such a low score-i had him 2nd in --to Duke of marmalade in that guineas he won-----If you look at your calculation --is it not the sire rating that drags him down?--and do you think you/ we may be underscoring some French stallions -- Val royal was a star on the track and hes been responsible for a lot of children which have either been Low grade or being French their results are not as well documented as UK +USA-so should he rightfully pull down Wim ratings OR and specifically for French sires should their contribution be marked up or as i do -ignored.

[wim]

I think the highest BR was 12 with the OBM. But what I did notice is that they had very good progeny before. I think I will dock points for BR into the teens.
As for Cockney Rebel there wasn't much in the Dam Tail upto 4th Dam.
The French Stallion rating could be good point, I just don't know where Equinline gets the info. Val Royal AEI is 1.11 (Equinline) and 1.17 (RP) so there pretty close but both very ordinary. I do know RP doesn't include all French racing. I've sent Equinline an email asking them the question.

The Wim Ratings are being overhauled this week, I'm going through all my past races from this summer (much to my wifes disapproval) and seeing what is important and what isn't. I want to get it all set for next season. This season has just been a work in progress, albeit a pretty succesful one, but from these results that I'm checking over there could be some changes that will simplify the ratings leaving less room for freak AEI scores to upset the points.

[pippex]

WIm

as far as I know the RP and Equineline dont calculate AEI in exactly the same way..i think i have written about on the forum before but I cant find the difference at the moment..

[Sniper7]

The aei on the racing post site is for sires as sires only and is not the same number as on the equineline site,which
covers a far greater number of races worldwide..its also safe to assume that the RP nicks information is inaccurate..

[wim]

JTH,

I think Val Royal rating is unaffected by being based in France. I say this because Monsun who is German based (i think) has a very good rating, a slightly better one than Gallileo and Montjeu.

[wim]

My 2 picks for next years 2000 Guineas are running today and tomorrow.
Al Zir is in an easy Conditions race today that won't really tell us much.

Viscount Nelson is up against it tomorrow in the G2 Champagne Stakes. He is racing on better ground for the 1st time and J Murtagh is riding. I'm hoping this wins well and makes the 70s I've taken look a bargain and the 22s I took look less expensive.

Incidentally, SETA is my pick for next years 1000 Guineas but I've not been able to back it at a decent price. If it wins well today then I've got no chance of getting a double figure price.

[LEMOSS]

Im on Viscount and Seta. Im thanking you in advance .