Breeding AW vs Turf

[jth]

With The AW Season now here --what should we be looking for in a horses pedigree which is of less importance on Turf?

[jth]

With flatstat tables should be a cinch to map the Sire A/e Aw Divided By Sire Turf AW
-similarly with Damsires

but what about dam tails?

For sires It used to be that Komaite, Warning , Lugana Beach (Fibresand), Risk me, Rock City, Woodborough and Polar falcon
6-12 yrs ago if i saw one of them siring an AW debutant-i was on --and i made a good profit which would have been a lot higher if i knew how to bet

Now its Exceed and Excel and Chester house --who have been handed the AW champion sire baton.

So its dead easy --for sires.

Just Divide Turf A/e by either Polytrack OR Fibresand A/e and look for the Fat BlUES AND THIN REDS


same with Damsires

but for the dams and the damtails -ive got some theories but its the sort of work Pippex has done and can do -that will answer this and i predict ---it will be deadly --

which female familys have a high AW a/e and which have a high Turf a/e and the biggest Earner of all --a female family that is 0n one and the same family is on the other

the sire and damsire stuff -the market does account for (More or less)

but the dam tail is virgin territory ignored / not understood by the market

[Pittsburgh Phil]

This time of year important for aw sire vs turf sire as there will be turf form horses running on sand for the first or so time.

I'll knock a table up for this. A straight ratio of AW A/E / Turf A/E ...

[pippex]

cool PP

I will take me a bit longer to come up with the data Jth mentions..but I will..

[jth]

Maiden 1.00 Sth

The Big BreedIng Swinger is Kummel Excess


Exceed and excel is Hot on Turf but RED HOT on AW and in particular fibresand

Id like to see the Polytrack vs Sthwell A/E -but cant see how to get thet number

shes had her first 2 runs on Kempton which is a tough apprenticeship-although Fillies only

and racestats say fillys Ok --and better than geldings -but really both stats just say NEUTRAL importance to gender unless Colt when big +ve

The first ever winner G Baker had was with an Ex and Excell 5 f sprinter here at STH

I like the Jockey and hes on the Up and draw Good SO Kummel Excess Bexbet (1)

And Berry / Norton in Sth 5F sprints inc 2yr olds should be the subject of a BRA investigation--and again Breeding both sides show a Fibresand Flip--(Im be surprised if no one had the Alert Berry--Non app Jockey +5f + sth)

Hot Red Mama looks worthy of interest--Bex bet (2)

ive looked at the tails and they are both OK as is Nicholls verglas Gelding Clear Ice

[Pittsburgh Phil]

This bit was easy. I ran a report of sire A/E's on the all weather and divided it by their A/E from the turf.

Any figure above 1.00 means that the sire is better value on the all weather than on the turf.

Way out in front is sire Savahra Sound. His AW A/E was 0.91 whilst his turf A/E was 0.14

He hasn't had any runners since 2005 though so it is unlikely we will see any of his stock running again.

Note that his AW/Turf ratio is so high purely because of his poor value on turf. Same thing happens with Mister Topogigio. His turf A/E was an incredible 0.07 (the lowest ever of any sire) whilst his AW A/E was only 0.32.

To weed out rogue values like that I compiled a new table with the following provisions:

30 runs on AW
30 runs on Turf
At least 10 wins on AW
Had a runner within the past 2 years

Using that information the results are more useful. Top sire is Sir Cat.

Quite interesting names at the bottom of the table. Well known named turf sires such as Peintre Celebre, Zilzal, Sinndar, Rock of Gibraltar and of course - Sadler's Wells all have sub 0.80 ratios.

Here's the shortened list. Below the table are csv files you can examine.

Code: Select all

SIRE,AW_TF_AE
----------------------
Sir Cat(USA),3.88
Kabool,3.36
Dancing Spree(USA),2.29
Darnay,2.10
Crafty Prospector(USA),2.02
Priolo(USA),1.88
Lure(USA),1.87
Dilshaan,1.85
Dayjur(USA),1.81
Haafhd,1.78
Agnes World(USA),1.73
Grand Slam(USA),1.73
Keen,1.70
Royal Academy(USA),1.65
Chester House(USA),1.64
Rainbows For Life(CAN),1.64
Zaha(CAN),1.64
Bigstone(IRE),1.57
Almushtarak(IRE),1.55
Woodman(USA),1.50
Distorted Humor(USA),1.47
Exceed And Excel(AUS),1.47
Almaty(IRE),1.46
More Than Ready(USA),1.45
Street Cry(IRE),1.45
Chevalier(IRE),1.44
Arch(USA),1.43
Bahhare(USA),1.43
Fusaichi Pegasus(USA),1.42
Exit To Nowhere(USA),1.41
Verglas(IRE),1.41
Dubai Destination(USA),1.40
Princely Heir(IRE),1.40
Storming Home,1.40
Gilded Time(USA),1.39
Jade Robbery(USA),1.39
Stravinsky(USA),1.39
Best of The Bests(IRE),1.38
City On A Hill(USA),1.38
Kylian(USA),1.38
Anshan,1.37
Distant View(USA),1.37
Millkom,1.37
Theatrical,1.37
Fantastic Light(USA),1.36
Factual(USA),1.35
Nicolotte,1.35
Where Or When(IRE),1.35
Miswaki(USA),1.33
Housebuster(USA),1.32
Linamix(FR),1.32
Aragon,1.31
Up And At 'Em,1.31
Anabaa(USA),1.29
High Chaparral(IRE),1.29
Octagonal(NZ),1.29
Safawan,1.29
Swain(IRE),1.29
Warning,1.29
Aljabr(USA),1.28
Desert Sun,1.28
Ela-Mana-Mou,1.27
Never So Bold,1.27
Opening Verse(USA),1.27
Silver Patriarch(IRE),1.27
Compton Admiral,1.25
Lucky Story(USA),1.25
Lujain(USA),1.25
.
.
.
Beat Hollow,0.90
Beveled(USA),0.90
Imperial Ballet(IRE),0.90
Indian Ridge,0.90
Second Empire(IRE),0.90
Zamindar(USA),0.90
Kris,0.89
Kyllachy,0.89
Rock City,0.89
Rudimentary(USA),0.89
Bold Fact(USA),0.88
Boundary(USA),0.88
Clodovil(IRE),0.88
Cozzene(USA),0.88
Pennekamp(USA),0.88
Seeking The Gold(USA),0.88
Brief Truce(USA),0.87
Captain Rio,0.87
Choisir(AUS),0.87
Cigar,0.87
Kahyasi,0.87
Medicean,0.87
Bahamian Bounty,0.86
Distinctly North(USA),0.86
Indian Lodge(IRE),0.86
Noverre(USA),0.86
Almutawakel,0.85
Elmaamul(USA),0.85
Glory Of Dancer,0.85
Great Commotion(USA),0.85
Highest Honor(FR),0.85
Robellino(USA),0.85
So Factual(USA),0.85
Indian Danehill(IRE),0.84
Muhtarram(USA),0.84
Night Shift(USA),0.84
Polar Falcon(USA),0.84
Sanglamore(USA),0.84
Redback,0.83
College Chapel,0.82
Darshaan,0.82
Ishiguru(USA),0.82
Mind Games,0.82
Polish Precedent(USA),0.82
Tomba,0.82
Be My Guest(USA),0.81
Dynaformer(USA),0.81
Mister Baileys,0.81
Emarati(USA),0.80
Giant's Causeway(USA),0.80
In The Wings,0.80
Kalanisi(IRE),0.80
Montjeu(IRE),0.80
Superpower,0.80
Turtle Island(IRE),0.80
Acclamation,0.79
Bishop Of Cashel,0.79
Galileo(IRE),0.79
Danehill Dancer(IRE),0.78
Nashwan(USA),0.78
Scenic,0.78
Hurricane Sky(AUS),0.77
Sadler's Wells(USA),0.77
Act One,0.76
Common Grounds,0.76
Desert King(IRE),0.76
Fayruz,0.75
Sabrehill(USA),0.75
Saddlers' Hall(IRE),0.75
Tobougg(IRE),0.75
Cayman Kai(IRE),0.74
Lomitas,0.74
Makbul,0.74
Revoque(IRE),0.74
Rock of Gibraltar(IRE),0.74
Sakhee(USA),0.74
Silver Hawk(USA),0.73
Monsieur Bond(IRE),0.72
Observatory(USA),0.72
Primo Valentino(IRE),0.72
Unfuwain(USA),0.72
Auction House(USA),0.71
Hamas(IRE),0.71
Mukaddamah(USA),0.69
Peintre Celebre(USA),0.69
Bluegrass Prince(IRE),0.68
Puissance,0.68
Inzar(USA),0.67
Sinndar(IRE),0.67
Beat All(USA),0.65
Flying Spur(AUS),0.60
Inchinor,0.60
Zilzal(USA),0.56
Dr Devious(IRE),0.54
Mull of Kintyre(USA),0.40


CSV Files of tables

AW/Turf AE ratio shortened (the table above)
http://www.flatstats.co.uk/downloads/Al ... _Short.csv

AW/Turf AE ratio full (no wins or last raced restriction)
http://www.flatstats.co.uk/downloads/Al ... E_Full.csv

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Just to reiterate what that table shows: it shows the ratio of all weather value to turf value.

It doesn't mean that the sires at the top of the table are necessary good value on the all weather - they are much better value on the all weather compared to the turf.

This info should be used for when analysing a horse with turf form running on the all weather. If the horse had poor turf form but the aw / tf ratio is high then the horse should show an improvement on this surface and an unexpected win at a decent price may be achieved.

If a horse has good turf form but the sires aw / tf ratio is low then the horse should not be able to maintain the good form and could be a candidate for laying.

---

Look for horses in the next few weeks who are making their sand debut after running on turf. Check if the turf form is good or bad. Then look up the sires aw / tf ratio and determine if an improvement / decline in form is likely.

[pippex]

I fancy HOT ROD MAMMA here...

[jth]

PP

Thanks thats great

Inchinors are often a great lay at this time of year--cos they are Mudlarks -so tend to do well at fag end of Turf and then are massively overbet when they attempt AW

But i think Sth should not be lumped with the other Polytracks except maybe Wolver pre Polytrack

I would lump all the Non fibresand tracks together

could you give us the same tables with a fibre/ Poly split?vs turf:

[Pittsburgh Phil]

I know dylan will be along soon with a request for contenders I have preempted him and added a new table to the daily stats page:



This table shows all horses making their all weather debut tomorrow at Kempton. They have never run on the all weather before but some have run on turf.

e.g. Ertiyaad, Tilsworth Glenboy, Circus Girl etc. have never run on a British flat racecourse so they are true debutants.

Horses such as Bravely Fought, Intimar, Othello have only ever had 1 run on turf etc. (note Bravely Fought has run in Ireland, Intimar at Mijas)

Take a look at The Name is Frank. He has never run on the all weather before but has run 25 times on the flat turf. He has some good recent form: 032212

Sire is Lujain. Looking at the table above Lujain's AW / TF A/E ratio is 1.25 This is good. It means that Frank should improve on this surface. Unfortunately he has a low rating due to weak trainer and jockey stats

You can see the debutants at the bottom of the Today's Stats Page here:

http://www.flatstats.co.uk/todays_stats.php

[Pittsburgh Phil]

I would lump all the Non fibresand tracks together

could you give us the same tables with a fibre/ Poly split?vs turf:

Good point.

Here's the table for Fibresand (min 30 turf runs, 30 fibresand runs, min 10 fibresand wins, last runner within 2 years)

Code: Select all

SIRE,AW_TF_AE
--------------------
Sir Cat(USA),4.29
Dancing Spree(USA),2.59
Priolo(USA),2.04
Keen,1.78
Elnadim(USA),1.75
Fasliyev(USA),1.68
Kylian(USA),1.66
Stravinsky(USA),1.62
Distant View(USA),1.60
Dr Fong(USA),1.57
Woodborough(USA),1.56
Dayjur(USA),1.53
Royal Abjar(USA),1.53
Woodman(USA),1.53
Exit To Nowhere(USA),1.52
Key Of Luck(USA),1.52
Mujahid(USA),1.52
Bering,1.51
Housebuster(USA),1.51
Dansili,1.50
Sure Blade(USA),1.45
Kingmambo(USA),1.42
Trans Island,1.42
Wizard King,1.42
Danehill(USA),1.38
Royal Academy(USA),1.37
Up And At 'Em,1.37
Sheikh Albadou,1.36
Medicean,1.35
Wolfhound(USA),1.35
Anshan,1.34
Bahhare(USA),1.34
Lujain(USA),1.34
Celtic Swing,1.33
Invincible Spirit(IRE),1.33
Danzig(USA),1.32
Piccolo,1.32
Shinko Forest(IRE),1.31
Forzando,1.30
Diktat,1.29
Goldmark(USA),1.29
Rainbow Quest(USA),1.29
Affirmed(USA),1.28
Aragon,1.28
Bigstone(IRE),1.28
Marju(IRE),1.28
Warning,1.28
Gone West(USA),1.27
Zafonic(USA),1.26
Primo Dominie,1.25
Whittingham(IRE),1.25
Barathea(IRE),1.24
Bold Edge,1.23
Millkom,1.23
Perugino(USA),1.23
Vettori(IRE),1.23
Never So Bold,1.22
Red Ransom(USA),1.22
Charnwood Forest(IRE),1.21
Emperor Jones(USA),1.21
Second Empire(IRE),1.21
Titus Livius(FR),1.20
Eagle Eyed(USA),1.19
Josr Algarhoud(IRE),1.19
Rahy(USA),1.19
Danzig Connection(USA),1.18
Machiavellian(USA),1.18
Orpen(USA),1.18
Daggers Drawn(USA),1.16
Efisio,1.16
Hernando(FR),1.16
Monashee Mountain(USA),1.16
Definite Article,1.15
Desert Prince(IRE),1.15
Fraam,1.15
Bien Bien(USA),1.14
Cyrano De Bergerac,1.14
Victory Note(USA),1.14
Bertolini(USA),1.13
Docksider(USA),1.13
Generous(IRE),1.13
Hector Protector(USA),1.12
Komaite(USA),1.12
Captain Rio,1.11
Polar Prince(IRE),1.11
Be My Chief(USA),1.08
Intikhab(USA),1.08
Gulch(USA),1.07
Lycius(USA),1.07
Paris House,1.07
Halling(USA),1.06
Indian Rocket,1.06
Robellino(USA),1.06
Tagula(IRE),1.06
Grand Lodge(USA),1.05
Petardia,1.05
Unfuwain(USA),1.05
Persian Bold,1.04
Rock City,1.04
First Trump,1.03
Indian Ridge,1.03
Timeless Times(USA),1.03
Alhijaz,1.02
Lion Cavern(USA),1.02
Alzao(USA),1.01
Namaqualand(USA),0.99
Night Shift(USA),0.99
Royal Applause,0.98
Singspiel(IRE),0.98
Groom Dancer(USA),0.97
Makbul,0.97
Mujadil(USA),0.97
Prince Sabo,0.97
Ashkalani(IRE),0.96
Cape Cross(IRE),0.95
Desert Style(IRE),0.95
Rambo Dancer(CAN),0.95
Namid,0.94
Case Law,0.93
Deploy,0.93
Darshaan,0.92
Most Welcome,0.92
Beveled(USA),0.91
Emarati(USA),0.91
Lugana Beach,0.91
Bahamian Bounty,0.90
Bluebird(USA),0.90
Desert Sun,0.90
Magic Ring(IRE),0.90
Pennekamp(USA),0.90
Pips Pride,0.90
Bin Ajwaad(IRE),0.89
Mark Of Esteem(IRE),0.89
Presidium,0.89
Alhaarth(IRE),0.88
Bishop Of Cashel,0.88
Hamas(IRE),0.88
Sri Pekan(USA),0.88
Rudimentary(USA),0.87
Catrail(USA),0.86
Spectrum(IRE),0.86
Foxhound(USA),0.85
Zilzal(USA),0.85
Averti(IRE),0.84
Kyllachy,0.84
Turtle Island(IRE),0.84
General Monash(USA),0.83
Polar Falcon(USA),0.83
Pivotal,0.82
Dolphin Street(FR),0.81
Saddlers' Hall(IRE),0.81
King's Signet(USA),0.80
Lake Coniston(IRE),0.79
Pursuit Of Love,0.79
Selkirk(USA),0.79
Green Desert(USA),0.78
In The Wings,0.77
Common Grounds,0.76
Cadeaux Genereux,0.75
Lahib(USA),0.75
Distant Relative,0.74
Kahyasi,0.74
College Chapel,0.73
Mind Games,0.73
Superpower,0.73
Atraf,0.69
Danehill Dancer(IRE),0.69
Distinctly North(USA),0.69
Mukaddamah(USA),0.68
Compton Place,0.63
Danetime(IRE),0.61
Brief Truce(USA),0.60
Fayruz,0.53
Inchinor,0.41


Fibresand/Turf AE ratio shortened (the table above)
http://www.flatstats.co.uk/downloads/Fi ... _Short.csv

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Here's the table for Polytrack (min 30 turf runs, 30 polytrack runs, min 10 polytrack wins, last runner within 2 years)

Code: Select all

SIRE,AW_TF_AE
--------------------
SIRE,AW_TF_AE
Kabool,3.52
Caerleon(USA),2.45
Darnay,2.38
Dayjur(USA),2.16
Bigstone(IRE),2.00
Agnes World(USA),1.87
Haafhd,1.86
Dilshaan,1.85
Royal Academy(USA),1.81
Crafty Prospector(USA),1.76
Dancing Spree(USA),1.73
Deploy,1.71
Chester House(USA),1.66
Nureyev(USA),1.60
Almaty(IRE),1.58
Grand Slam(USA),1.58
Theatrical,1.51
Linamix(FR),1.49
Zaha(CAN),1.49
Exceed And Excel(AUS),1.48
King Of Kings(IRE),1.48
Opening Verse(USA),1.47
Woodman(USA),1.47
Bahhare(USA),1.46
Princely Heir(IRE),1.45
Storming Home,1.45
Millkom,1.44
Petardia,1.43
Verglas(IRE),1.43
High Chaparral(IRE),1.42
Spectrum(IRE),1.41
Jade Robbery(USA),1.40
Compton Admiral,1.39
Dubai Destination(USA),1.39
Desert Sun,1.37
Anabaa(USA),1.36
City On A Hill(USA),1.36
More Than Ready(USA),1.36
Swain(IRE),1.35
Stravinsky(USA),1.33
Catrail(USA),1.32
Fusaichi Pegasus(USA),1.32
Fantastic Light(USA),1.30
Fath(USA),1.29
Where Or When(IRE),1.28
Best of The Bests(IRE),1.26
Sri Pekan(USA),1.24
Dolphin Street(FR),1.23
King's Signet(USA),1.23
Bahri(USA),1.22
Grand Lodge(USA),1.22
Lugana Beach,1.22
Lujain(USA),1.22
Mtoto,1.22
Arch(USA),1.21
Belong To Me(USA),1.21
Bijou D'Inde,1.21
Dansili,1.21
Definite Article,1.21
Magic Ring(IRE),1.21
Piccolo,1.21
Desert Story(IRE),1.20
Green Desert(USA),1.18
Groom Dancer(USA),1.18
Persian Bold,1.18
Lake Coniston(IRE),1.17
Rahy(USA),1.17
Vettori(IRE),1.16
Daylami(IRE),1.15
Josr Algarhoud(IRE),1.15
King's Best(USA),1.15
Most Welcome,1.14
Bluebird(USA),1.13
Efisio,1.13
Elmaamul(USA),1.13
Shinko Forest(IRE),1.13
Soviet Star(USA),1.13
Victory Note(USA),1.13
Wizard King,1.13
Ali-Royal(IRE),1.12
Bertolini(USA),1.12
Fasliyev(USA),1.12
Kheleyf(USA),1.12
Daggers Drawn(USA),1.11
Desert Style(IRE),1.11
Indian Rocket,1.11
Distant View(USA),1.10
Johannesburg(USA),1.10
Red Ransom(USA),1.10
Street Cry(IRE),1.10
Cadeaux Genereux,1.09
Entrepreneur,1.09
Gulch(USA),1.09
Invincible Spirit(IRE),1.09
Mark Of Esteem(IRE),1.09
Nashwan(USA),1.09
Distant Relative,1.08
Val Royal(FR),1.08
Brief Truce(USA),1.07
Dixieland Band(USA),1.07
Danetime(IRE),1.06
Fraam,1.06
King Charlemagne(USA),1.06
Perugino(USA),1.06
Spinning World(USA),1.06
Xaar,1.06
Iron Mask(USA),1.05
Lahib(USA),1.05
Marju(IRE),1.05
Singspiel(IRE),1.05
Alhaarth(IRE),1.04
Atraf,1.04
Bold Edge,1.04
Distant Music(USA),1.04
Hawk Wing(USA),1.04
Intikhab(USA),1.04
Presidium,1.04
Pursuit Of Love,1.04
Compton Place,1.03
Danehill(USA),1.03
Danzero(AUS),1.03
General Monash(USA),1.03
Lend A Hand,1.03
Sabrehill(USA),1.03
Zafonic(USA),1.03
Key Of Luck(USA),1.02
Rainbow Quest(USA),1.02
Trans Island,1.02
Bien Bien(USA),1.01
Elnadim(USA),1.01
Lycius(USA),1.01
Cape Cross(IRE),1.00
Desert Prince(IRE),1.00
Fayruz,1.00
First Trump,1.00
Lear Fan(USA),1.00
Mujahid(USA),1.00
Namid,1.00
Mozart(IRE),0.99
Mr Greeley(USA),0.99
Charnwood Forest(IRE),0.98
Danzig Connection(USA),0.98
Namaqualand(USA),0.98
Mister Baileys,0.97
Pivotal,0.97
Zamindar(USA),0.97
Ashkalani(IRE),0.96
Generous(IRE),0.96
Hernando(FR),0.96
Polish Precedent(USA),0.96
Primo Dominie,0.96
Selkirk(USA),0.96
Diesis,0.95
Hunting Lion(IRE),0.95
Oasis Dream,0.95
Foxhound(USA),0.94
Golan(IRE),0.94
Halling(USA),0.94
Komaite(USA),0.94
Monashee Mountain(USA),0.94
Seeking The Gold(USA),0.94
Averti(IRE),0.93
Kahyasi,0.93
Muhtarram(USA),0.93
Royal Applause,0.93
Kyllachy,0.92
One Cool Cat(USA),0.92
Revoque(IRE),0.92
Statue Of Liberty(USA),0.92
Tagula(IRE),0.92
Alzao(USA),0.91
Beat Hollow,0.91
Bin Ajwaad(IRE),0.91
Elusive Quality(USA),0.91
Imperial Ballet(IRE),0.91
Rossini(USA),0.91
King's Theatre(IRE),0.90
Glory Of Dancer,0.89
Mind Games,0.89
Prince Sabo,0.89
Docksider(USA),0.88
Titus Livius(FR),0.88
Beveled(USA),0.87
Bold Fact(USA),0.87
Choisir(AUS),0.87
Indian Lodge(IRE),0.87
Almutawakel,0.86
Bahamian Bounty,0.86
Barathea(IRE),0.86
Celtic Swing,0.86
Diktat,0.86
Dr Fong(USA),0.86
Forzando,0.86
Indian Ridge,0.86
Polar Falcon(USA),0.86
Tipsy Creek(USA),0.86
Kingmambo(USA),0.85
Orpen(USA),0.85
Pennekamp(USA),0.85
Galileo(IRE),0.84
Ishiguru(USA),0.84
Turtle Island(IRE),0.83
Danzig(USA),0.82
In The Wings,0.82
Mujadil(USA),0.82
Polar Prince(IRE),0.82
Acclamation,0.81
Noverre(USA),0.81
Silver Hawk(USA),0.81
Danehill Dancer(IRE),0.80
Desert King(IRE),0.80
Eagle Eyed(USA),0.80
Kalanisi(IRE),0.80
Lomitas,0.80
Observatory(USA),0.80
Redback,0.80
Sadler's Wells(USA),0.80
Indian Danehill(IRE),0.78
Tomba,0.78
Clodovil(IRE),0.77
Primo Valentino(IRE),0.77
Bluegrass Prince(IRE),0.76
Medicean,0.76
Captain Rio,0.75
Gone West(USA),0.75
Lion Cavern(USA),0.75
Woodborough(USA),0.75
Beat All(USA),0.74
Cozzene(USA),0.74
Emperor Jones(USA),0.74
Giant's Causeway(USA),0.74
Inchinor,0.74
Machiavellian(USA),0.74
Second Empire(IRE),0.74
Common Grounds,0.73
Montjeu(IRE),0.73
Tobougg(IRE),0.73
Act One,0.72
Sinndar(IRE),0.72
Hurricane Sky(AUS),0.68
Night Shift(USA),0.68
Rock of Gibraltar(IRE),0.67
Darshaan,0.66
Sakhee(USA),0.66
Wolfhound(USA),0.63
Auction House(USA),0.62
Peintre Celebre(USA),0.61
Bishop Of Cashel,0.60
Robellino(USA),0.60
Mull of Kintyre(USA),0.39
Zilzal(USA),0.36


Polytrack/Turf AE ratio shortened (the table above)
http://www.flatstats.co.uk/downloads/Po ... _Short.csv

[wim]

I fancy HOT ROD MAMMA here...

"If you've got a horse that no other Jockey can win with, then book Fran Norton to get the job done"

[0909dylan]

Thanks for the TABLE. ..........You are getting too quick for me,did not even have time to nag you for it this time.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Here's the Fibresand AW Debutants:



Miss Bootylishes has never run on the all weather before but has had 19 runs on turf. The trainer choose to make her sand debut on Fibresand and not Polytrack ...

This could be a good move. According to the Fibresand / TF A/E table above her sire's figure is:

Mujahid(USA),1.52

This means that Miss Bootylishes can be expected to be better value (perform better than expected to) on this surface than on turf.

Just for the record here's the sires full A/E's for the 3 surfaces.

Mujahid Turf 0.92
Mujahid Polytrack 0.92
Mujahid Fibresand 1.40

So the trainer would be right to run Miss Bootylishes at this course rather than at the polytrack courses.

MB does have a low rating but I would be willing to over-rule this today and have a small go EW.

---

Look further down the Debutants table and find all green rated runners.

Gold Diamond (70) Sire weakish for the AW (0.88 Fibresand / Turf ratio)
Power Of Dreams(64) Sire had too few runs on AW
Captain Clint(62) Sire good for Fibresand (1.11 Fibresand / Turf ratio)

Sire of Captain Clint is Captain Rio and he is a much better sire on Fibresand than on Polytrack (worth alerting for Captain Rio runners at Southwell when underperformed on Polytrack etc.)

Captain Clint is at the wrong end of the weights for this type of race though. But again an improvement in form could happen. Form book punters will never know this and this is why the price is great.

3:00 Captain Clint. Each Way.
4:00 Miss Bootylishes. Each Way.
Each Way Double Captain Clint, Miss Bootylishes.