Scoop6 Jackpot Betfair Accumulator

[Pittsburgh Phil]

No jumps racing today so expect a huge placepot pool.

The scoop6 is at Lingfield and Southwell today so that should be tasty too although it was won last week and thus the pools start at zero.

A better option could be the Jackpot / Placepot. There is already £25K in the Jackpot pool and even though it is unlikely to be as big as the Scoop6 pool it could be easier to win due to the 50p minimum bet, and the fact that you can place more on the placepot part if you wish.

[jth]

the scoop 6 is marginally better than the National lottery imho

I was part of a syndicate that won it many years ago along with a shedload of other people and barely got my stake back

£2 a line is completey ridiculous --if they reduced the stake to a pound they would more than double their revenue

[jbarnes]

card looks very very tricky today tbh

on a day like this with no jumps normally look to oppose the higher profile trainers, problem today is there arent many runners that hit that bill!

going to have a jackpot/placepot bet and will post here for interest

gd lk all

[jbarnes]

just a placepot for me

1 1, 3
2 5, 2
3 5, 4
4 4, 5
5 3, 8
6 1, 9

good luck all

[Rooster]

£2 a line is completey ridiculous --if they reduced the stake to a pound they would more than double their revenue

Yes but they would also more than double the chance of someone winning it They want big rollovers not weekly winners hence they have probably priced it about right, although not for us I agree.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

The only time to play it seriously is when there are roll overs as there is no value in a start from zero pool.

First the Tote skim XX% from the total, then they split it between win, place and bonus pool. Thus if you want to win the Win pool your £2 starts off as a stake of just tens of pence. Only when there are many roll overs does your £2 become £2+

I really hate the bonus fund - it's fool's gold, like tax credits. You work your ass off and pay taxes and if you qualify you get taxes back in the form of tax credits.

Imagine if you put £1000 on a 33/1 winner.

You go back to the bookies expecting to pick up £34,000. The bookie says to you:

"I will give you £20,000 now and give you the other £14,000 if you pick the winner of the big handicap race next Saturday."

You would bop him on the nose and snatch his satchel.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

The Tote Scoop6 was not won today. A single ticket went on to the fav Only A Game in the last leg but it did not place.

£183,756 was bet on the Scoop6 in total today. If the single ticket had won the six races win fund payout would have been £64,314. This was actually bigger than the SP accumulator which only paid £53,154

The Tote Jackpot was part won with 50p. Full dividend return to a £1 stake would have paid less than the Scoop6 and an SP accumulator: just £27,050.40

Just a final comparison - A Betfair SP Accumulator on the six Scoop6 races:

wait for it ....

£116,001.27

Whooa.

[0909dylan]

...................and thats why I have not done a single Tote bet for the about the last 7 years.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

I can recommend a Toteswinger - if you are willing to stake a maximum of £1 to win the odd fiver now and again. Anything more than that and you enter a domain of diminishing returns

I don't know if the Betfair SP accumulator regularly trounces the Scoop6 like that. Obviously after a few rollovers the Scoop6 return can be quite decent.

Ask regular Joe Punter this:

"Would you stake £2 on the Scoop6 or on a six horse Betfair SP accumulator?"

I bet the majority will opt for the Scoop6 as they would assume it is a bet that pays. Most punters would think the Scoop6 is better because of all the hype surrounding it and as they have seen pictures of Agnes Haddock with a 3ft long cheque.

But if you explain to them what a six horse accumulator bet is they would not place it even if it returned 2x, 3x, 4x more money in the long run. They would see a straight 6 horse accumulator bet as too hard to win despite there being exactly the same chance of winning if they bet a Scoop6.

This is a similar scenario to the £10 double / £10 roll up conundrum.

Double or Roll Up?
Joe goes into the bookies and places a £10 double on two 10/1 horses. The first wins and he has £110 going onto the next 10/1 horse.

It loses and Joe's colleagues say: "Unlucky Joe. Better luck next time".

Jack goes into the bookies and places a £10 win on a 10/1 horse. This horse wins, the bookie hands Jack £110 and Jack now decides to put it all on the next 10/1 horse.

It loses and Jack's colleagues say: "You schmuk! Why did you put all your winnings on a 10/1 horse?"

[0909dylan]

Its very brave of you to admit being a practicing "ToteSWINGER" in public. ................Whats their "take" on this bet ?............they seem to hide this sort of info. on their site these days.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

It's not easy finding out the info. You can work it out for the Scoop6, Jackpot and Placepot (I think 30%, 27%, 27% last time I checked). Don't know about swinger and exactas (around 23% ? ) but win and place pools were lowered to around 16% at some time ago?

I think the Tote could lower the skim even further if run by a racing consortium. They currently think they don't need to lower it because when they compare with the bookies SP / Tricast / CSF they can produce figures showing "We pay more than bookies". That argument falls down when you compare their returns with the Exchanges.

---

A nightmare scenario for racing is for the bookies to return digital SPs (breaking away from stepped prices 15/8, 2/1 etc., and to break the 1/4, 1/5 place dividers), and Betfair to double commission and / or increase the winners Poll Tax. The Tote would follow suit by adding a few points to the skim.

I can really see this happening within the next few years. All it would take is a management consultancy / racing review / beancounterfest to decide that 'racing needs more money, screw punters' and this is exactly what will happen.

[0909dylan]

TOTESWINGER.............the "take" is 26% ..................so its not for me.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

From what I learnt it is only worth playing if the prices are in double figures as this will easily overcome the skim.

But then if you place more than a few quid you decimate the pool and thus it defeats the object!

And if you are betting place only on big priced runners you would make more money just backing your selections to place on Betfair.

Toteswinger Conclusion:
Great for oncourse punters who are generally unlucky with winning and want the chance to turn £2 into £20+.

No good for more serious punters who want to turn £20 into £200+.

Total no go bet for Harry Findlays.

[pj]

I never get involved with any of the multiple bets mentioned above, but I have to admit to liking the Tote a lot. In fact, it's been quite good to me, as a credit bettor, over the years. There are just no overheads, phonecalls are free, and, there's no need to mess around depositing and tying up money.

Unlike the Exchanges, the Tote cycles a lot of punters' money back into the racing game, AND pays tax to Great Britain.

May I just ask about that last leg of the Scoop, where everything hinged on the favourite winning?
Would it have been possible to get enough on btfr to LAY that loser and get a return equal to either, winning the Scoop , or, winning on that btfr Accumulator?

Second, what would be the amount, if any, of commission
deducted from that £116,001.27 mentioned by PP? Would it be in the range of 2% to 25%?

all the best,

PJ.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

It certainly is possible to lay a fav if it is the last leg of a possible winning ticket. Some of the syndicates must be doing that every few weeks. One problem for a small time punter who wishes to do so is that they may not be able to load up their account with sufficient funds for the hedge.

---

Betfair Multiples are based on a flat rate of 5%. But it is not as good as it sounds. The greedy swines take the 5% on each leg of the accumulator rather than on the final total.

Another problem for punters is that as the figure is fixed at 5% your points total does not reduce it. If you are a 2% commission punter you are better off placing win singles and rolling up the winnnings on each stage rather paying the full 5% on each stage.

Remember the days of 9%/10% betting tax. You either paid the tax upfront on your stakes or had the tax deducted from winnings. Now imagine if you wrote out a treble and the bookies took the 9% tax on each winning stage.

Race 1 Lucky Jim wins 3/1, bookie takes 9% tax, rolls rest onto next stage
Race 2 Blue Boy wins 5/1, bookie takes 9% tax, rolls rest onto next stage
Race 3 Old Dog wins 10/1, bookie takes 9% tax, pays out.

I ran some tests placing Yankees on Betfair Multiples and the conclusion was that it was just not worth the hassle.

The deduction of commission at each leg means that it is just not worth placing a multiple bet on Betfair with shorter priced runners such as favourites / 2nd favourites - the commission takes too much of the return.

The only time a multiple bet is worthwhile on Betfair is when the prices are out of the first three in the betting and thus the overpricing of the SP (20%, 30%, 50% better odds) makes a huge difference as shown with the £116,001.27 return for Saturday. But what are the chances of landing a big priced treble or four timer?

Betfair SP Accumulator Calculation

a. Use the BFSP and take 1 off.
b. Multiply that figure by the stake
c. Multiply by 0.95 (this takes off the 5% commission)
d. Add the stake
Repeat for each leg

e.g.

A £10 Treble at 5.5, 3.5 and 2.8

a. 5.5 - 1 = 4.5
b. 4.5 * £10 = £45.00
c. £45.00 * 0.95 = £42.75
d. £42.75 + £10 = £52.75

£52.75 is the return which rolls onto the next leg.

a. 3.5 - 1 = 2.5
b. 2.5 * £52.75 = £131.88
c. £131.88 * 0.95 = £125.28
d. £125.28 + £52.75 = £178.03

£178.03 is the return which rolls onto the final leg of the treble

a. 2.8 - 1 = 1.8
b. 1.8 * £178.03 = £320.46
c. £320.46 * 0.95 = £304.43
d. £304.43 + £178.03 = £482.46

Total Return for the £10 Treble: £482.46
Total Commission Paid: £24.87

If you had placed the same bet as Jack (rolling up wins instead of an upfront Treble) and your effective commission is 2% then the returns are quite different:

Total Return for the £10 rolling up onto three horses: £515.89
Total Commission Paid: £10.32

And don't forget I haven't included the Premium Charge aka winners poll tax. If you land this bet a few times a month you can say goodbye to another xx%