Projected Race Time Methods

[robert99]

Being amongst the winter of our discontent and a bleak time of fretting about fractions, perhaps the time is appropriate to discuss one aspect of race analysis that seems for some unfathomable reason to be ignored. That is what methods do people use, or deliberately not use, for projecting the expected time a particular race will take before it is run? The race result will depend heavily on the appropriate pace taken.

There could be many ways numerical and subjective, based on combinations of speed points, speed ratings, sectional times, running style etc. Would be interested to discuss what folks think.

Robert

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Only thing I know about this is that it is only worthwhile following on consistent surfaces and course shapes. This would be the all weather tracks (but not Lingfield, and not for horses switching between any of the surfaces - Great Leighs and Wolverhampton switching excepted).

IMO not very useful for determining the final time at Goodwood from a field which last ran at Newmarket, Ascot, York and Sandown.

Only in the peak of summer, with minimum irrigating shenanigans, and then only over the straight turf courses would it be possible to predict with the highest degree of accuracy.

Having only read Beyer on Speed and Mordin on some other Drugs I don't confess to be that knowledgable about it though. I stand to be enlightened

[jth]

Robert 99

I didnt know they allowed computers at Whites---perhaps now they have disallowed smoking they have relaxed this stricture

Nice ? Whenever I read your threads- I always start by thinking ---this Robert 99 may be living in another century but he seems an interesting fellow-if lacking a bit of common wisdom or touch.


But i like the ?

I dont predict race times but if i did i would use a source of running style data--not necessarily that i trust-but one which requires the least effort and £'s to extract.

( Good God Im beginning to sound like you........ )

and that would be Fracsoft page 2 ratings --i could use that Neural Network Dude' s numbers or even Oracle --but Fracsoft would be my Starting point.

I woud add all the projected pace scores together and then average and median them -then i would look at where the pace clustered-

so for example the 3.30 over 6F at lingfield which has been abondoned

14 runners
Max pace score =3.0 min pace score =1.0
Av Pace ( adding all paces and Dividing by No.of runners (14))=1.807
Median pace=1.70
Max Pace = 3.2
Min Pace =1.0

apart from Batchworth blaise a behind runner Bang in The Middle there is arrowhead pace ie plenty down the middle and slow on the 2 wings--

i would then think--

Cavalry Guard (pace 3.0) has got D 9 which is a bogey draw over 6F at kempo so i dont want him-and ill reject his pace contribution

what now?

I might look at the Pace profile of winners of this race type 41% Front Runners, 37% midfielders,22% behind--and compare with my average or median

i would then guess this race will be run at standard speed for the Class.

That do you Guv'nor?

[pj]

I used to be really interested in this sort of thing as I believed time would be the key factor in racing. I even made enquiries on several racing fora about buying a suitable stopwatch!

Before we go any further, I would be keen to know the data regarding "standard times".
How many races are won in a time that is slower than "standard"?
My own, unfounded, opinion is that the majority of races in UK and Ireland are won in times slower than "standard".
If then, we make another assumption, namely that races are run according to the rules of racing, which means all runners are trying to get from start to finish in less time than any other( ahem, totally unrealistic assumption, imo), we have the problem of explaining the reason why even the winner doesn't beat or equal "standard" in so many races.

We have to remember that we're talking here about animals that have been specially bred, pampered, and trained, to be the nearest thing to a four-legged racing machine that wealthy men can produce ( with the possible exception of greyhounds).
Now, a long time ago, in the dim and distant past, I had to go to school. They had a thing called "P.T. and Games".
Sometimes this meant running. Over a range of distances, from a 100 yds sprint to a 3 mile cross-country slog, we had to race against each other and the results were timed and recorded.
They had things called "Standards". This was what a "normal" kid of a certain age was supposed to be able to do. If you couldn't do it, then you weren't up to standard. Now we were a right motley crew, with no knowledge of pace or anything, yet, somehow most of us managed to "meet the standard".

How is it then, that the majority of racehorses can't even run to "standard" in the majority of races?
Until I understand the meaning of "standard time" and the reasons why the vast majority of runners don't even match it in most races, I don't think I'll be going very far with this line of enquiry.
I hope it's nothing to do with "averages", because if it is, then I think we're talking about one of the most misleading and misunderstood concepts of all time.

all the best,

PJ.

[jth]

PJ


Sounds like robert 99 better tell us what a Standard time actually means?

and what if anything is the difference between speed ratings and speed points ?

[pj]

Well, exactly, jth.
Until I know and understand such a basic fundamental , I've no chance of getting anywhere with this sort of thing.
To me, "Standard" should mean what a "normal" horse should be expected to achieve.
I.e. to qualify for the description "racehorse", the brute should be able to run a particular distance in an agreed time, more races than not.
If this cannot be done, then the thing is a duffer and not qualified or fit to carry folk's money in races.

Goodness knows the criteria for setting such a standard, but, until this is done, we cannot proceed, imo.

Obviously, I'm around the betting rings and paddocks long enough to have my own views as to the real reasons we get performances like that of Jo's mount in the maiden at Wolver on monday, but I didn't want to complicate the matter, until we have established the basics.
I think the railways brought in a scheme whereby if they didn't get their passengers from A to B "on time", they agreed to pay 'em compensation. All I can is, that given the antics of some of our stables and jockeys, thank fk we're no longer reliant on the Pony Express to deliver! The compo-hunters would have a field day, but, perhaps that's the problem.

Now that a wonderful day's racing is over, I look forward to the really switched-on, premier league, pro-punters coming on air this evening to rip the living doo doo out of my paltry comments.
Enlightenment awaits, but have I got what it takes to capice?

atb,

PJ.

[jth]

I look forward to the really switched-on, premier league, pro-punters coming on air this evening

so do I


( )

[uptrend]

pj

I think Racingposts standard time is the average time taken over a certain distance over all courses.

"quote from the Alan Potts book "

Racingpost standard time for 8f is 1m 36s , but when you think the course record at lingfield (all -weather) course is/was 1m 36.32, set by Vanroy back in nov 89 it does make you scratch your head.

good luck
uptrend

[pj]

Thanks, Uptrend.

If it's anything to do with "averages", then I'm afraid I'm out right away. No use at all, imo.

I'm afraid I'm still scratching my head about all this, but I'm sure Sir Robert will be along later to straighten us out.

atb,

PJ.

[jth]

Don't worry PJ even Gentlemens Clubs have a chucking out time

[pj]

Yes, jth, but for downstairs staff like me, I'm afraid that's well after my bedtime.
I'll have to look in tomorrow.

atb,

PJ.

[robert99]

jth et al,

Whites do a delightful potted shrimps on toast and the grey leg grouse with a dash of Worcestershire sauce. Was tempted to join when HM was invited. Still hoping to get back that monkey from Derby Day. The secret lemonade drinkers are really a hotbed of pinkos with their selling of of cottages to the staff, slipping in red leg grouse and the like. The infernal Babbage machines are also quite irksome. The Reform Club is more me and the country would be far better off left as it we intended in 1832. Nelson certainly would not have sold PFC to the Arabs and others.

Does not look like the "really switched-on, premier league, pro-punters are coming on air this evening".

Thanks for your, PJs and PP's views
The Racing post standard time is the time a 100 rated horse carrying 9 stone could be expected to achieve on good going for a particular race distance at the course. Raceform just use the median time of all races run a the distance.
Speed points are a Colonial contrivance for deciding which horse might lead early on and what the pace might be.
Have not come across the NN "dude".

Discarding badly drawn and likely boxed in horses plus the pace style percentages are good suggestions. PPs point concerning the going should have been clarified in the question. The projected time would need to be adjusted for the going stick reading, say before racing. The exact final time projection is not the objective but more a close estimate of how near the winner's time will get for the abilities of the race time defining horses in the race.

[aliasme]

Ever since it dawned on me that a horse can finish 2nd, 3rd or worse yet cover the distance in a quicker time than the winner I've chosen to ignore the printed times in the racing post and take speed ratings with a rather large pinch of salt.

Pace is a different baby all together though and I tend to use it primarily to calculate position into the turns. Such a pity that our race cards lack basic information about previous races such as 2w or 3w like they have in the States.

Interesting that JTH mentioned stall position in an earlier post and discounted a horse on that basis. I take the contrary view that stall position is of little consequence rather the horse that's in the stalls but I guess it's a topic for another thread.

Night all.

[pippex]

cast your mind back 2 years to Turtrax and sectional timing a I thought a new era had dawned..alas I should have known better..

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Cast your time back 10 years. The AW racecourse (technician ?) was providing homebrew times.

This must have been a gold mine as not many people knew about it. I had the data and did not make use of it

Sometime later the chap was no longer working there.