Chester Impossible Draw

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Chester Impossible Draw

Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Tue May 08, 2012 9:44 am

In his latest Mark Johnston Bletherings the trainer states his concern over the draw for Heavy Metal at Chester on Wednesday.

9th May Chester Manor House Stables Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes 5f 14 runners
Heavy Metal drawn 14

He asks if it is possible to win from that draw. I say it is very unlikely. Looking at the database since 1990 there were 24 races over 5f with 14 or more runners. Here are a couple of stats:

The winning stall positions: 2, 10,3,1,2,3,3,6,1,1,6,3,8,1,3,7,4,5,6,4,2,1,1,6

So no horse drawn higher than 10 has won over 5f with 14+ runners.

The finishing position of the horse drawn in stall 14: 8,13,10,10,6,12,8,7,12,13,12,15,11,11,10,3,14,3,12,13,13,5,14,12


Stall 14 could only place once, whilst the majority of the time it had at least 10 runners beat it.

Unless Heavy Metal is some superstar the only way he can win on Wednesday is if stalls 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 became non runners resulting in the stalls shuffling up!
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Tue May 08, 2012 5:36 pm

Three horses are already out of that race! Stalls 9, 10 and 13 (no surprise there then).

This means Johnston's Heavy Metal will now be running from an adjusted stall draw of 11. Two more non runners from stalls lower than than and Heavy Metal will be in the contender zone (if good enough).
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Wed May 09, 2012 8:58 am

Another one out! Johnston's now running from stall 10. Still a slimish chance of winning though, especially with two fancied runners drawn in 1 and 2.
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby mpendle » Wed May 09, 2012 10:19 am

Heavy Metal - non runner
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Wed May 09, 2012 10:23 am

Hmm. Non runner because of the going.

Soft today. Won LTO on ... Soft :D
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby 0909dylan » Wed May 09, 2012 12:22 pm

.............lets see if its impossible...................2 minutes study of DRAWSTATS says.....................DRAWN 1 OR 2, HANDICAP RACES of 7 FURLONGS or LESS.................3.05 TAX FREE + CONFESSIONAL...........sadly, the bookies seem to use the same formula as me for pricing races here. :(
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby Miles Ahead » Wed May 09, 2012 1:32 pm

Flag start for Chester Cup :dontknow:
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby aliasme » Wed May 09, 2012 2:09 pm

3.05

No good having the draw if you don't have the running style to exploit it so based on 30 seconds of analysis I get Lexi's Hero and Dickie's Lad although the bookies have got it spot on. Foxy music might have an EW claim.
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby aliasme » Wed May 09, 2012 2:12 pm

and Dylan bags it =D>
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby 0909dylan » Wed May 09, 2012 2:13 pm

aliasme wrote:and Dylan bags it =D>

_tiphat2: Easy peasy really.
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby 0909dylan » Wed May 09, 2012 2:16 pm

0909dylan wrote:.............lets see if its impossible...................2 minutes study of DRAWSTATS says.....................DRAWN 1 OR 2, HANDICAP RACES of 7 FURLONGS or LESS.................3.05 TAX FREE + CONFESSIONAL...........sadly, the bookies seem to use the same formula as me for pricing races here. :(

RESULT..........CONFESSIONAL WON 5/1 ( 5.42 BFSP )
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Re: Chester Impossible Draw

Postby 0909dylan » Thu May 10, 2012 9:08 am

PROFIT so far......+ 4.42 pts.........................4.15.............REDAIR + WHISKY BRAVO
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UPDATE

Postby 0909dylan » Thu May 10, 2012 9:28 am

0909dylan wrote:PROFIT so far......+ 4.42 pts.........................4.15.............REDAIR + WHISKY BRAVO

REDAIR a N/R.................So its now PROFILE STAR + WHISKY GALORE
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Re: UPDATE

Postby 0909dylan » Thu May 10, 2012 3:22 pm

0909dylan wrote:
0909dylan wrote:PROFIT so far......+ 4.42 pts.........................4.15.............REDAIR + WHISKY BRAVO

REDAIR a N/R.................So its now PROFILE STAR + WHISKY GALORE

RESULTS................3rd 3/1 + U/P
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