Pro-Am Lady Races

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Pro-Am Lady Races

Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:28 am

Carlisle tonight is hosting another of these Pro-Am Lady meetings.

I have created a dataset for seven previous such races. One race is from Ripon 9 years ago whilst other 6 are from the same Carlisle meeting last year. The sample size is on the low side but there are some stand out stats.

* The Flatstats Ratings are not effective in these races
* Most winners were from Amateurs, rather than from the Pros
* Backing all outsiders (or, say, anything 20.00+ on Betfair looks profitable)
* 141 seems to be the cut off for winning weight. 39 starters carrying 142lbs (10st 2lbs ***after allowance taken off***) or more but none of them won
* Non Pareto trainers dominate the results (correlates with the winning jockeys being Amateurs)
* Non Pareto jockeys won all seven races (as above)
* Sire Pareto Yes required
* Headgear is a negative

Pro-Am Lady Races
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Postby mysilv » Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:31 pm

c 6.35 bridge valley,i`m one of the pear tree partnership the horse runs in our colours.we are involved in another horse in yard(ypres,runs at newcastle this week).we have taken bridge valley on till end of this season.previous form not brilliant but trainer will not keep any horse in training if he didn`t think wouldn`t pay for its keep.ran last time over 5f which was too short.stiff 6f tonight more suitable.
keep an eye on j ward,good trainer and good staff.not had too many winners this summer but had a lot placed and more run better than their odds suggested.
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Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:45 pm

Thanks for the update mysilv.

I have included BV in an double figure priced runner multiple bet:

Backed all horses that were 10.00+ in every race. This is a dutched multiple for 20 trebles, 15 fourfolds, 6 fivefolds, 1 accumulator. At a £1 stake this cost £42 and should win over £2K if all 6 win!

This is a speculative bet and realistically I would expect 3 winners, which with the dutched odds should get half the stake back. 4 winners is achievable though and should return 3x the initial outlay.

One problem with this bet is that I had to make the selections as they are now. Prices can change up and down so the wrong double figure priced horses could go onto win!
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Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:31 pm

Also backing these in singles at Betfair SP. This is much easier to do because you can back the field at SP and set the minimum price to be 10.00
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Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:08 pm

Kirsty Milczarek pays out at 47.4 - 8 bets = 39.4 net. Sweet!

---

The multiple bet needs one more for the treble in order for there to be a return.
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Postby lombie » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:18 pm

Pittsburgh Phil wrote:Kirsty Milczarek pays out at 47.4 - 8 bets = 39.4 net. Sweet!

The multiple bet needs one more for the treble and a return.


Cracking return on that single PP =D>

Not that it matters of course but Amy Ryan took the ride I think.
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Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:23 pm

All those rear ends look the same to me :lol:
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Postby aliasme » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:33 pm

Nice strategy PP, let's hope in continues. SOPRANO or BANDANAMAN in the next in particular would be very nice :wink:
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Postby lombie » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:34 pm

:lol:

Its certainly her better side that's for sure!
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Postby aliasme » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:40 pm

That'll do for us _good:
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Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:43 pm

12.2 - 13 stakes so a small loss on the win single.

The multiple gets a 2.02 winner so that's a treble up. And it rolls onto the next 2 races.
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Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:44 pm

Yes well done Alias. I think you just back the two of them. I backed thirteen!
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Postby aliasme » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:48 pm

Yes, I was trying to be a little less scattergun :D
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Postby Pittsburgh Phil » Mon Aug 06, 2012 7:55 pm

Outlay will be less in the next. Probably only 3 at 10.0+

The multiple bet is set to include these:

Blues Jazz OR Hot Rod Mamma OR Triple Eight

regardless of drifters or shorteners.
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Postby aliasme » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:02 pm

Might be up against it in the next I'm afraid, a milkshake double is on the cards I suspect. 8.35 looks an open race though ...
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