Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Archived threads from Horse Racing Tips / Betting Action section. Read previous horse racing tips and selections

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby jth » Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:34 pm

jth wrote:8.50 Maiden

In this race type FTO have a bad record -If anyones going to bust that stat its MJohnstone-and its hard to quibble with the breeding of Hajras which shines out compared to the others and hes a blessed Colt
Apart from FTO One other Negative is Trap 1 which is bad in itself and especially bad For FTO's.

There is no other good breeding in this race - but at 1.65 --the fav- ive looked for other clues for investments.

The only horse that has excited me enough to take a marker bet at 32 is Green Meta
Colt , not FTO and left 20 lghts at start D (1) ran quite well after that and beat 2 home in what "looked" a slow run race .

I dont know what sectional time experts think but i assume being left 20 L in a slow run race is worse than being left 20 L in a Fast run race.

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=WOL_2012_02_27_07_1730

So weve got a horse with rubbish "form"- but which is a COLT and has a fair draw and is not FTO. Hes Got recent German dam blood and his 5th dam was Musidora.-- but his siblings have done nothing and his sire has had no AW runners-. His trainer doesnt win Maidens hence despite being a colt hes 2nd Bottom on the ratings.

But Racestats , Market Price , Gender, draw , not FTO and Visual evidence make this the only sensible _b3 Bet -------with a series of in running lays at <=9.0 to 1.31



Any more thoughts on this Maiden?
User avatar
jth
Best Poster 2012
 
Posts: 19463
Joined: Jan 2003
Location: london

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby loser2winner » Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:44 pm

jth wrote:Any more thoughts on this Maiden?


i said i would take it on with lord paget

clicked on race from racecard and i wont be betting in the race

race says lord paget trn in this race is 0/15 and the jck is 0/7

so no bet i go along with your horse is best bred but because its odds on wont be betting in race will watch it
loser2winner
 

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby loser2winner » Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:45 pm

loser2winner wrote:Bahamian lad 7yo wearing a visor F/S Top Rated


horse was withdrawn at the starting gate
loser2winner
 

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby loser2winner » Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:47 pm

loser2winner wrote:8.50 maiden

Fav is odds on its his FTo and stats don't give good vibes he is the best bred in field also this time year trn does well in maidens

I think it's worth taking him on with the top rated

He is 1/2 brother to a crs winner

Trn and jck in form


wont be betting this one i looked at the race from racecard

trn 0/16 jk 0/7
loser2winner
 

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby scipio » Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:48 pm

Go for it! As you say stats are against the fav - but will probably be a default winner. Geldings need to be LTO turf and the filly is a no-no. How about a Bexbet on yours?
scipio
Best New Poster 2010
 
Posts: 4328
Joined: Jan 2003
Location: east lothian

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby manychester » Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:51 pm

KING´S WHARF sire T/C miler @ 3/sire /Danehill (USA) 1986 9.1f , Tour D'Or (USA) good stats over this trip e/w here http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_ ... horse_form
User avatar
manychester
Best Tipster 2012
 
Posts: 7119
Joined: Apr 2004
Location: manchester

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby loser2winner » Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:54 pm

loser2winner wrote:
loser2winner wrote:8.50 maiden

Fav is odds on its his FTo and stats don't give good vibes he is the best bred in field also this time year trn does well in maidens

I think it's worth taking him on with the top rated

He is 1/2 brother to a crs winner

Trn and jck in form


wont be betting this one i looked at the race from racecard

trn 0/16 jk 0/7


fav wins it easy a statsbasher fto
loser2winner
 

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby lombie » Sun Mar 18, 2012 12:46 pm

scipio wrote:
Have a look at Wolves, March and April, handicap sprints LTO turf.


Well done on Sleight's Boy last night Scipio =D>

I created this based on the above:-

http://www.flatstats.co.uk/system_build ... _id=116544

Now normally I would look at the last 28 days and 50 runs and discard it completely, or look at the negatives and remove them, or positives and add them to the system(backfitting?!).

Is this something other members would do too? Or is it more the case of comparing when the alert is given the similarities with the race on the day?
e.g. it seems most profitable when there's an apprentice on board so looking at last night and seeing an apprentice thus makes it worth the selection? Also 4 year olds are profitable equals another tick?

Cheers in advance for your insights.
User avatar
lombie
Best New Poster 2012
 
Posts: 830
Joined: Aug 2011

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby pippex » Sun Mar 18, 2012 1:05 pm

I usually look at the stats form this subset which has 0 or 1 wins first..

e.g. add the line cd wins >0

this gives 1/36 but note the expected wins is only 3.51...so its too small a sample in my opinion to put it in as a filter...to get a true negative stat you need expected winners of 5 or greater..
User avatar
pippex
Most Helpful Poster 2012
 
Posts: 21473
Joined: Jan 2003

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby lombie » Sun Mar 18, 2012 1:10 pm

As a further example this is what I've found myself doing:-

You said March and April but March appears unprofitable but Jan and Feb are both profitable so I've added them in too. I also have a fair bit of emphasis on ratings and horse age in my systems too and looking at the systems results both bottom rated and older horses are big negatives. So I've removed them :lol:

Now I know that is classed as backfitting but is it not justifiable in this case? They are filters I normally have anyway and I could and would probably have used them before seeing the system results?

Anyway this is what I now have:-

http://www.flatstats.co.uk/system_build ... _id=116545

Which to me looks a pretty decent system although it's been disappointing in 2012 thus far.
User avatar
lombie
Best New Poster 2012
 
Posts: 830
Joined: Aug 2011

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby lombie » Sun Mar 18, 2012 1:14 pm

pippex wrote:I usually look at the stats form this subset which has 0 or 1 wins first..

e.g. add the line cd wins >0

this gives 1/36 but note the expected wins is only 3.51...so its too small a sample in my opinion to put it in as a filter...to get a true negative stat you need expected winners of 5 or greater..


Cheers Pippex, I was typing my other reply before reading this so it may seem out of sync.

So you would do the above and if expected winners were greater than 5 but the results showed only 1 or 2 wins then you'd consider it justified to add the filter? Am I understanding you right?

Cheers :D
User avatar
lombie
Best New Poster 2012
 
Posts: 830
Joined: Aug 2011

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby jth » Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:29 pm

Scipios looks a nice system -no need to restrict to Wooly -works on all Polytracks but not so good at Southwell.

The win % are BLUE and sample size is big.

Place % low to mid 20's %.

Im no expert on systems but on racestats i like to see 30 % + place return
what do you feel comfortable with as a place % return on a System?
User avatar
jth
Best Poster 2012
 
Posts: 19463
Joined: Jan 2003
Location: london

JTH

Postby 0909dylan » Sun Mar 18, 2012 3:24 pm

jth wrote:Scipios looks a nice system -no need to restrict to Wooly -works on all Polytracks but not so good at Southwell.

The win % are BLUE and sample size is big.

Place % low to mid 20's %.

Im no expert on systems but on racestats i like to see 30 % + place return
what do you feel comfortable with as a place % return on a System?

As a general rule, its nice to see............PLACE % AT LEAST x2 THE WIN%..............e.g........If SYSTEM has 23% WIN STRIKE RATE.................PLACE RATE 46%+.
User avatar
0909dylan
Champion
 
Posts: 17404
Joined: May 2005
Location: uk

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby scipio » Sun Mar 18, 2012 4:02 pm

I'm pleased you find the concept of interest. Looking for this type of angle comes with the racestat method, therefore, I don't have it as a system.
That said, if I did have, say, Iombie's version, I wouldn't have backed Sleights Boy win or place because >50's BF = 0 from 21 and place >10's BF = 0 from 24! I'd have missed out on a 16/1 place win.

I'm beginning to think that LTO SP and SP stats are more important than I previously thought, and am presently working on a post to that effect.
scipio
Best New Poster 2010
 
Posts: 4328
Joined: Jan 2003
Location: east lothian

Re: Wolverhampton Saturday 17-Mar-12

Postby pippex » Sun Mar 18, 2012 4:30 pm

lombie wrote:
pippex wrote:I usually look at the stats form this subset which has 0 or 1 wins first..

e.g. add the line cd wins >0

this gives 1/36 but note the expected wins is only 3.51...so its too small a sample in my opinion to put it in as a filter...to get a true negative stat you need expected winners of 5 or greater..


Cheers Pippex, I was typing my other reply before reading this so it may seem out of sync.

So you would do the above and if expected winners were greater than 5 but the results showed only 1 or 2 wins then you'd consider it justified to add the filter? Am I understanding you right?

Cheers :D



thats correct lombie :D
User avatar
pippex
Most Helpful Poster 2012
 
Posts: 21473
Joined: Jan 2003

PreviousNext

Return to Horse Racing Tips

Who is online

Registered users: No registered users
cron
Big Priced Winner! Top Rated Royal Acquisition Wins 20/1 | Subscriptions just £25 a month or see special offers  Subscribe Today!