Ratings Table on Stats Reports

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Ratings table added to the stats reports. This table will show the performance of the following bands:

Blue Rated = rating of 90 or more
Green Rated = rated 60 to less than 90
Red Rated = rated less than 60

This information is very useful when analysing a trainer, sire, jockey etc. You can now see the performance of the item when rated in each of the ratings band.

e.g.

Trainer Sir Mark Prescott Turf Stats - Ratings Band
Blue Rated 41.4% strike rate, 0.98 A/E, 4.8% loss
Green Rated 21.0% strike rate, 1.03 A/E, 13.4% loss
Red Rated 8.0% strike rate, 0.75 A/E, 9.1% loss

This clearly shows a correlation between the Flatstats rating and the performance of the trainer's horses. The higher the rating the higher the strike rate and the less the loss backing all his runners.

Jockey Richard Hills Turf Stats - Ratings Band
Blue Rated 29.0% strike rate, 0.90 A/E, 17.5% loss
Green Rated 15.6% strike rate, 0.90 A/E, 9.5% loss
Red Rated 7.4% strike rate, 0.63 A/E, 49.8% loss

Again this shows a correlation between rating and strike rate but this time the ROI figures are not uniform. This means that Hills is likely to be overbet (or underperform) on a highly rated horse. What is also clear is that Hills is very poor value on a low rated horse.

Sire Sadler's Wells Turf Stats - Ratings Band
Blue Rated 33.7% strike rate, 1.08 A/E, 27.8% PROFIT
Green Rated 14.9% strike rate, 0.89 A/E, 21.0% loss
Red Rated 7.8% strike rate, 0.83 A/E, 18.3% loss

Another strong correlation between rating and strike rate and again an indication that the higher rated runners return less of a loss / better value. In fact this time Sadler's Wells Blue Rated runners return a profit of 27.8%

Coming Soon
Extra Tables
I can add a couple of extra tables for data such as absolute rating (top rated, 2nd rated ... top third in ratings etc.) Open to suggestions here.

Systems and Race Stats Pages
If the stats reports work well I will add the ratings tables to the other main pages.

Report filters
Yes, absolutely. Let me ensure the reports are working fine first and then I will add the filters to the report forms. What this will do is to allow you to create alerts for systems such as Prescott long distance 3yos when blue rated etc.

You will also be able to choose absolute rating such as Pivotal when Top Rated etc.

You can see the Ratings Tables on any of the stats tables such as Trainer Stats here:

http://www.flatstats.co.uk/trainer_stats.php

Search for a name, generate a report, view the Ratings table just below the Season table.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

It would be good to discuss why some trainers / jockeys do well when highly rated whilst others seem to tip over when the rating gets higher.

This could be due to a flaw in the ratings such as a low sample size, but it could also be due to overbetting.

The ratings could be identifying situations where everything is right for a win but the information is well known in the market and that backing that type of horse is just not profitable.

e.g. The going is soft and the sire is a mudlark, the horse itself has a very high EPS, the trainer is from a top newmarket yard, the jockey is A list, the draw is ideal. This could create a blue rated runner but there is a loss returned from backing it.

Now if another horse has the same scenario but the jockey is D list then the rating may still blue but he is not overbet and the report shows a decent return or not much of a loss

[wim]

That looks excellent PP.
+
You've just made Dylans day.

[pippex]

Great work PP..

As Wim said Dylan is in for Eureka day tomorrow

Now who was is wrote "The times they are a changing"

[aliasme]

Thanks very much for this, I'd been for the evening out, come back home and thought I'd have a quick glance before bedtime. Now I've had to make myself a strong coffee and will be burning the midnight oil

The ratings could be identifying situations where everything is right for a win but the information is well known in the market and that backing that type of horse is just not profitable.

You hit the nail on the head there. The best situations arise when you possess information that the betting public are either unaware of, or choose to underestimate. Besides, I'm quite sure the bookies have their secret agents sneaking a peek at the ratings on here, the question is whether they adjust their prices accordingly

[aliasme]

I'm having a good play about but one thing I've noticed is that the number of runners/winners given by the figure in the ratings filter doesn't always match the overall number of runners. Presumably the ratings only go back so many years - does anyone know the exact date?

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Yes, the ratings started on 02-Jan-04. The other tables on the report will show the full 10 year stats but the ratings will only show data for the past 5 years.

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Just spotted a mistake with Blue rated being 90+ not 80+

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Have added the ratings tables to the racecard stats reports and the race stats page.

The race stats page is interesting as you can check things such as the performance of the ratings bands in Group races, or long distance handicaps etc. Also try those races with 'fancied' runners. It sure does show which races the ratings are best for with fancied / unfancied runners.

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Another thing to check with low strike rate trainers and jockeys. There are some out there who are profitable when the ratings are red. A good example is Cathy Gannon.

The lower her rating the more profit she returns.

[aliasme]

Terrific stuff Phil - now hurry up with those report filters!!!

[Curtis]

Morning Phil,

Thanks for all this. Some very good stuff here.

You mentioned that you'd added these to the racecard stats reports. Do you mean the race stats for the race in question, accessible from the race card? If so, I cant find the rating bands when I click on 'race' from the racecard. Maybe I've misunderstoood.

This facility is useful for quickly profiling a race, so would be good to be able to see the performance of the rating bands from here.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Just adding it to the race stats (from racecards) reports. Noticed that this was old style format report which didn't have nice zebra style tables. Will update this and add other stuff such as SP Range, TFI etc.

There may be a few layout errors whilst I update this. Shouldn't take too long.

Note that the sample size may be too low for the Ratings table for some races. I wouldn't rely too much on any table which says 3 wins from 5 etc.

[0909dylan]

Thanks PHIL..........As you know my other passion on this site is to CREATE ALERTS..........so all I need is for this new information to be ALERTABLE/SNAPSHOTABLE ( whatever the correct word is ) wherever possible.

[0909dylan]

The bit that really interests me is what you have called RATING REPORTS on the banner on the site.........I assume this is what you call REPORT FILTERS also.What I would really like is to be able to investigate as much information about the RATINGS and their performance and when finding a PROFITABLE angle..........to be able to CREATE AN ALERT so it picks out daily selections.If this were all possible I would certainly be a happy bunny.

[0909dylan]

Suggestions for EXTRA FILTERS/etc. for RATINGS.If I remember correctly the following are the best filters PROFITWISE............BLUE RATED, TOP RATED, RATING 100+, TOP RATED BY 10 POINTS +, ...........these would be useful filters if possible,if you have space............and just out of interests sake perhaps...........BOTTOM RATED.....as I have always wondered how they fared.

[Pittsburgh Phil]

Ratings Reports

This will be a page devoted totally to analysing the ratings. You will be able to view reports for conditions such as

Top rated when the fav is red rated
Top rated when the 2nd rated is 30pts behind and there are 16+ runners in the race
Top rated and 2nd rated when both are within 2pts of each other and the 3rd rated is 20pts behind

All that will be snapshot / alertable.

This report still needs time though so for now ...

Ratings Info on Other Reports
This is what is available now. On all the stats pages there is a table showing a summary of the stats for each ratings band (blue, green, red)

This info will be snapshot / alertable later today. It is not as comprehensive as what the Ratings Report will be but you will be able to create alerts for conditions such as:

Mark Johnston Blue Rated in Long Distance races
Sadler's Wells Blue Rated in Softish Going races

etc.

I will add more info on this page such as absolute rating (top, 2nd, last) and rating pos range (Top third, Mid, Bottom third) and any other requests if feasible.

[0909dylan]

STATS TABLES is always a good place to start when investigating an idea/system.So it will be very useful to have the RATINGS FILTER on this page as a first step to see which are the most PROFITABLE horse/sire/etc. options.