Horse Racing Ratings Guide

The Flatstats horse racing ratings are unlike other ratings. Whilst other ratings will primarily be derived from horse racing form the Flatstats horse racing ratings are based purely on value horse racing statistics.

In order to gain an edge over other punters you have to bet differently to what they bet. If the majority of punters are using form based methods for picking winners then a horse racing ratings method which does not rely on form should have an edge.

You can use the Flatstats horse racing ratings to determine if a horse you fancy is a value bet or not. Basically, if the horse is highly rated (blue or green colour) then he should be value. If the horse is red rated then he probably does not offer much value.

Please note that even though the ratings are not derived from horse racing form you can use the ratings to supplement traditional form based methods or even speed ratings. Whatever method you use to pick winners just use the Flatstats horse racing ratings to determine if your selection is a value bet or not.

Click here to see how the horse racing ratings are calculated

Click here to view a report on Backing the Top Rated Selection in Every Race (change Category to Miscellaneous and then select the Top Rated dataset)

Big Priced Winners

Pintle 1st 22/1 19-Aug Bath 4:30
Pintle won at 50/1 when top rated a few months ago and follows up again here today. Once again form punters "couldn't have the winner" whilst Flatstats followers could and were again rewarded with a big price.

Average Rating: 58.8

Pintle has one of the best value sires (Pivotal) on the flat, his trainer (J L Spearing) has some good value stats and the jockey (K McEvoy) offers great value too.

The ratings indicated Pintle was an outstanding bet. The horse was well clear top rated (38 points clear of the second best), and was the only non red rated horse in the field.

Bookie Price Info: Opened 20/1, drifted out, SP 22/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 38.0, Lowest 23.0, Average 31.5

Correy 1st 66/1 16-Aug Chepstow 6:20
Another huge priced winner for Flatstats with the form book to thank for the big price. Correy was totally unfancied in the market but romped home to win at 66/1.

Average Rating: 58.2

The 'form' for Correy was dire: 3 runs, no places, and she finished 53 lengths behind the winner in her last race. But the Flatstats horse racing ratings had uncovered a few of gems here and these made the horse a standout bet.

The sire Tobougg was the best value in this race and had some great stats. In particular the distance stats really stood out - Tobougg's are good at stepping up in distance. Form punters could not know this though and could not accurately determine the potential of the horse over longer distances.

The trainer Bryn Palling was the best value trainer in the race. It is surprising that he is actually underbet here at his local course but then the Tote paid just £18 so he did have some fans on course.

The favourite (Right Option) was red rated and the average rating of the field was low so this indicated a good value bet for the top rated.

Bookie Price Info: Opened 22/1, drifted out, SP 66/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 200.0, Lowest 39.0, Average 121.0

Free Offer 1st 16/1 5-Aug Newbury 4:55
A rare '16 runner handicap' race where an each way bet was the best option in this race. Flatstats subscibers could see that Free Offer was the best each way bet and were rewarded with a 16/1 winner.

This was another race where the ratings worked out perfectly with the top two rated finishing first and second in the correct order.

Average Rating: 58.2

Free Offer was well clear top rated because of the great value of the sire Generous. As this was a 3yo race the sire score had a bit more weighting than in a 3yo+ race. The next important criteria for making up the overall rating for this race was the trainer stat. John Dunlop is good value here and was third best out of all the trainers.

The draw was important in this race. The Flatstats database determined that middle draws offered the best value whilst low was a bit of a disadvantage. The favourite Abyla was drawn low and top rated Free Offer had the perfect draw in the middle of the course.

Take note of the average rating of the field of 58.2. Even though the majority of the runners were green or blue rated the average rating was low which indicates that the top rated is very likely to be a 'value bet'.

Bookie Price Info: Opened 16/1, SP 14/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 27.0, Lowest 17.0, Average 21.0

Chord 1st 14/1 6-Jul Wolverhampton 4:15
There was a lot of hype in this race with form punters 'crushing' the favourite as if defeat was out of the question. Unfortunately for those who backed the favourite it did not work out like that, but Flatstats subscribers could see the favourite was vulnerable and that a big priced winner was more likely to take this race.

The ratings worked out perfectly for this race with the top two rated finishing first and second. The straight forecast paid a rather generous £160.57.

Average Rating: 58.2

The favourite Alma Mater was red rated and offered poor value, whilst top rated Chord was tremendous value. He defied the odds and beat the 'sure thing' by seven lengths.

Alma Mater had a red rating because the sire offers very poor value on the all weather. Sadler's Wells may be a champion sire on turf but on the sand he underperforms and is overbet by the general public. Top rated Chord had a much better sire.

Bookie Price Info: Opened 14/1, SP 14/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 26.0, Lowest 11.5, Average 15.8

Sugar Land 1st 14/1 29-Jun Wolverhampton 2:20
The two main market leaders were red rated, and the average rating of the field was low so this was going to be a race where the top rated was a value bet. Sugar Land proved that to be the case by winning at a generous price of 14/1.

Average Rating: 58.2

Sugar Land had a high rating because the sire, trainer and jockey all offered good value for this type of race. The sire was the best value of all sires in the race but form punters did not know that and only made an assessment of this horses chance by analysing her only run on sand. That was her debut run and the sire stats showed that Dansili's do not do well on their debut and can be expected to improve as was shown here today.

Sugar Land was a filly racing against males (which is usually a negative) but the race stats showed that this was not going to be a problem today. Not only that but the ratings actual compensate for the different genders. Even though Sugar Land was a filly she still had a rating 10pts clear at the top and well clear of the market leaders.

Bookie Price Info: Opened 16/1, SP 14/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 23.0, Lowest 18.0, Average 21.5

Step To The Stars 1st 16/1 23-Jun Redcar 3:20
This is a good example of how Flatstats horse racing ratings can be used in races described as 'each way steals'. This was a 9 runner race with an odds-on favourite. The Flatstats top rated horse Step To the Stars was well clear on ratings and a great value bet.

Step To The Stars was rated 24pts higher than the favourite. The rating was high due to the exceptional value of the sire and the jockey.

Form book punters could not see past the favourite Font because he had been placed in better class races than this. One other thing to note is that Font is a gelding and the Race Stats for this race shows that geldings are often poor value bets. In similar races to this one 107 geldings have attempted to win the race but only 3 did!

Bookie Price Info: Opened 18/1, SP 16/1
Betfair Price Info: Highest Offered 36.0, Lowest 9.8, Average 26.7