This is the Flatstats Sire Stats analysis page. You can use this page to analyse Sire stats for flat turf racecourses.
Sire stats are invaluable for races such as Maiden Stakes, races for 2yos, or for examining lightly raced horses.
The sire stats are calculated from the results of all of sires offspring and are thus good at determining if a horse will be suited to a particular type of race.
If a horse is trying something new for the first time, such as: running on soft ground; running over a long distance; having it's first ever run on turf, then there will be nothing in the form book to give you any clues as to if the horse will handle those conditions. The sire stats will look at the results of the horses brothers and sisters to see how well they fared under those same race conditions.
How to use the Sire Stats Reports
Basics
This page is used for generating Sire stats. You can search for a Sire and see a comprehensive report showing all the their stats. This page is configurable such that you can filter the report for specific types of races, distances, going etc.
Searching
Enter all or part of the name and press the search button. If there are any matches with Sires in the database then they will be listed and you can choose the name you are looking for. Once you have selected one Sire from the list (or your search returned a single, exact match then that name will be 'loaded'.
e.g. To search for sire Kingmambo enter all or part of the name. If you just enter a few characters such as "king" all sires with king in the name will be shown. This will include sires such as Desert King and King's Best as well as Kingmambo.
If there are two or more names found you will see a small table showing all the records found in the database. The table shows the name and basic stats for that name (number of wins, runs, strike rate and the A/E 'value' stat. Just click on the name you are interested in to 'load' that data.
ABC List
Click on a letter to show all names begining with that letter. Note that this will show matches on the first name or initial only.
Summary Report
Once a Sire has been selected you will see a summary of their stats. There are two types of summary which you can choose to view: Basic and Advanced (selectable via the blue options panel at the top of this page). A Basic summary shows just the number of wins, runs, strike rate and A/E value stat whilst the Advanced summary shows a whole lot more information about the Sire.
If you are new to the site you may find that reading the Advanced summary will give you a good introduction on how to use the stats. The Advanced summary will put some of the numbers into words and thus make it easier to find good and bad stats. The Advanced summary shows information such as:
- The profitability of the Sire
- The overall strike rate and an indication if the strike rate has changed recently
- Any preferences the Sire may have for location, distance, or going
- Information about when the Sire last had a winner, and what was their longest losing streak
Full Stats Report
This is a big report which displays everything you need to know about a Sire. The report opens up in a new window and contains lots of stats for the Sire split into specific categories (such as time of year, type of race, position in betting and much more).
Report Filter
You can either click Generate Report straight away to see all the stats for your selected Sire or you can filter the report by changing some of the options on the form.
Filtering is good for homing in on specific stats. If you want to examine a Sire's stats in just handicap races, at certain courses, or at a particular time of the year then you can filter the report to show only that information.
The report options consist of check boxes which you can use to include or exclude criteria, drop down boxes which you can use to select ranges of numbers, and entry boxes you can use to type in specific ranges such as the SP.
When filtering a report it is best not to be too specific else the number of results returned may be too low to produce a meaningful report. If the report returns insufficient data then you may want to widen your search to include more races.
e.g. If you want to find out how well a particular Sire does when the going is heavy in April, over distances of exactly 12f in field sizes of exactly 5 runners then the results returned could be low and thus no meaningful report will be generated.
It would be far better to perform a search with criteria either side of the data you requested in order to increase the sample size. Try searching for:
Going Heavy and Soft, Months March to May, Distances 11f to 13f, Runners less than 8.
Another reason for not being too specific is that you could fall into the trap of backfitting the data. Backfitting is a bad way of analysing stats as you are biasing the data based on the results you already know or you are 'painting the target around where the arrow lands'.
If a filter can not be justified then it probably should be used. In otherwords, if you can not explain why results are better or worse with a filter then it is best to exclude it.
Examples of backfitted data:SP between 3/1 and 13/2, Runners between 8 and 14, Last Ran 8 to 23 days ago.
If you can not justify why those exact figures should be used then it is best to not use them. Ask yourself why 3/1 and 13/2 why not 4/1 and 15/2? Why runners between 8 and 14 why not 9 and 15?
Generated Report
When you are ready to view the full stats for the Sire just click the Generate Report button. The report should open in a new window and show you comprehensive information about the Sire.
The report is split into 4 main sections: Snapshot Info, Filter Settings, Summary, and Detailed Stats.
Snapshot Info: This is only available to Flatstats subscribers. It allows you to save a report settings so that you can call it up at any time. You can also use this to alert you as to when any horse is running which matches your saved settings. e.g. If you run a report for a Sire and you find that they are really good in handicap sprints you can create a snapshot of that data and set the system to alert you whenever the Sire has any runners matching that condition.
Filter Settings: This displays any filters you have set up on the form. If you changed any of the form settings from the default then the information will be shown here. This section also displays the Date Range and Actual Date Range where the date range is the date you selected (or the form default) and the actual range is the dates which the database found.
Summary: This displays a quick overview of the Sire's stats. You can view basic infom such as wins, runs and strike rate, as well as the more important expected wins, A/E, and profits.
Expected Wins: the number of wins the Sire should have had based on the odds of all their runners.
Total Earnings: the win and place prize money earned
Earnings Per Start: the earnings divided by the runs - this can be used as a class indicator
Avg Win SP: the average odds of all the Sire's winners
Avg All SP: the average odds of all the Sire's runners
Last 50 runs / 28 days provides basic stats and form figures for the last 50 runs and the last 28 days for the Sire.
Total Individual Runners is the number of individual horses which ran for the SireIf a Sire had 10 horses then those 10 horses may have run many times each. The total number of runs would be the total number of times those 10 horses ran (if they all ran 20 times then the total runs is 200) whilst the total individual runners figure is 10.
Total Unique Winners is a figure which indicates how many of those individual horses won at least one race. If 5 of those 10 horses won a race then the figure is 5 (50%) which means that half of the Sire's horse won a race. The Total Unique Won a £10K+ Race is similar but that it counts those horses that won a more valuable race.
Detailed Stats: This is the main part of the report which gives a break down of individual groups such as the record of the Sire over the past 10 years, during different seasons, in different types of races, with different prices and much more.
The stats show:
Category: This is the stat being shown such as Class, Distance, Going, Field Size etc.
Item: This shows the individual stat item such as Group 1, 12f, Good to Form, Small Fields etc.
Wins, Runs, Win%, Plc%: Basic stats for the item including the strike rate (Win%) and the place strike rate (Plc%)
I.V.: This is the Impact Value stat. It is a measure of how much more or less an item is winning within it's category. e.g. If the Category is Gender and the item for Fillies shows an I.V. of 0.75 then fillies are winning less than their fair share of races.
A/E: This is the A/E value stat. It is a measure of how much over or under bet the item is - basically if the item is value or not. If a figure is more than 1.00 then the item has tended to be underbet by the public (it won more races than it was expected to), whilst if the figure is much lower than 1.00 then the item is not so good value.
£1Win, ROI%: These are the profit figures. The £1Win figure is the profit or loss from backing the item to a level £1 stake whilst the ROI% is the return on investment or the profit / loss in percentage terms.
All stats are shown in colour where the colour is based on the the ROI% figure:
- 30% or more ROI
- more than -30% to less than 30% ROI
- -30% or worse ROI
If you still do not understand the stats terms such as ROI, IV, and A/E you may want to read our useful Guide to Horse Racing Stats
