All Weather SP Analysis Stats

How to use the SP Analysis Report

Basics
The SP Analysis Report is used for checking the overall 'value' of different starting prices.

The report shows the strike rate of each price, and the corresponding value of that price.

Sample Report

The table shows the performance of each SP.

• Win%
  The actual strike rate of each SP. In the above example horses sent off at Evens won at a rate of 48.3%
• Exp%
  This is the expected strike rate we would have expected Evens shots to win. A horse with odds of Evens should have a 50-50 or 50% chance of winning.
• A/E
  This figuer shows the A/E Value Index and is based on the ratio of actual winners to expected winners (Win% / Exp%). A figure or around 1.00 or more indicates that the particular price is winning close to as expected, whilst a low figure indicates that the price is underperforming or is overbet.
• True Odds
  This figure shows the true odds of a particular price group for winning. In the above example Evens won 48.3% of the time. Converting this to true odds using the following formula:
  
  Odds = (1 / Probability) - 1
  
  True 'Evens' Odds = (1 / .483) - 1 = 1.07-1
  
  
• ROI%
  This shows the profit or loss to backing each price range to level stakes. Notice that the losses are small at the top of the table but increase dramatically as the price range increases. This shows that a Favourites / Longshot bias exists where favourites tend to be underbet whilst bigger prices tend to be overbet.

You can use the SP Analysis report to see the stats for all races at all courses, or you can choose an individual course or type of race by using the various filters on the form.