Basics
The FlatStats Draw Bias Stats Reports shows detailed draw stats for all racecourses. Use the reports to find out if a particular distance at a racecourse has a draw bias. The reports show stats split into thirds so that you can see stats for those drawn the lowest, in the middle, or the highest. All reports contain charts which help to show if a bias is present, and all reports are in full colour so that you can easily identify good, neutral, or bad draw biases.
First choose the course and distance you wish to analyse. You can now either click Go straight away to see the report or filter the report by changing some of the settings on the form.
You can filter the form to show the results for the exact type of race, field size, etc. but it is usually best to start with a general overview report for the course and distance.
When you click the Go button the report will be generated. This will show a graphical chart and a table which you can analyse.
There are various options for the chart such as showing the strike rate, ROI (profit) or average lengths for each stall position.
The ROI% is useful for indicating if certain draw positions are profitable or not for backing. Everyone knows that Chester strongly favours the low numbers so accordingly the SPs of these runners are lower. Looking at the ROI% will show if backing those low runners is profitable or not.
Any draw position which has returned an ROI of 30% or more is coloured blue. Draw positions which return no great profit or loss are coloured green. Avoid the range of draws coloured red as these have returned a loss of more than 30%.
Try and find a race where there are many blues and greens congregating at either the top, middle or bottom. This will indicate if a strong bias exists for low, middle or high numbers respectively.
As with all statistics you should look for positive and negative results. Use the data to determine which horses will have an advantage from being drawn in a certain and stall and which ones will be at a disadvantage.
Non Runners and Adjusted Draw Positions
The FlatStats draw reports uses adjusted draw numbers when there are non runners in the race. This is a more accurate way for using draw data as it more closely follows the actual draw positions at the time of the race. Previously the official draw positions were used but this is slightly flawed as non runners and stall shuffling is not taken into consideration. e.g. In a 10 runner race the horses drawn in stalls 7 and 8 are non runners. The horses who were in stalls 9 and 10 will now move down to stalls 7 and 8 so that there are no gaps in the stalls.
Adjusted draw positions can only be performed if the non runners are reported to the starter early. Withdrawn horses are not adjusted by the starter / stalls handlers and thus are not adjusted for in the reports.
Unadjusted Draws
You can if you wish choose to view the Unadjusted draw positions which are based on the official result but as pointed out above this is not so accurate - especially if there are many non runners in a race.
Handicaps
When looking for a draw bias try and include handicap races only. Handicap races provide a level playing field and emphasise any bias that may exist. This does not mean that you can't use this data when choosing the winner in a Stakes race - just be aware that draw biases have more of an effect in handicap races.
Filter Out Tailed Off Runners
This option allows you to filter out rogue results such as horses who were pulled up, did not finish, or finished tailed off down the field. As there was clearly a problem with the horse you should not include it in your analysis so it is best to keep this option set to on. Note that the exact filter is to exclude all horses who finished a distance (30 lengths or more) behind the winner.
Search Criteria
When analysing a race it is best to start with a wide criteria capturing as much data as possible, then go back and slim down the criteria to best match the race you are analysing. If the search returns few qualifiers you could try extending the scope to include other distances. e.g. If you are looking at a 5f race at Chester you could also include 6f races as both encounter the same bend and the strong low draw bias that exists at that course.
It is best to try and exclude races open to just amateurs, and apprentices, and the lower class races such as sellers and claimers.
Bogey Stall Position
Some course have a bogey stalls where winning seems impossible. This is a stall position which is a disadvantage for whatever reason. At some courses being drawn low may be an advantage but the lowest stall number 1 rarely wins. This could be because the position of the running rail is quite threatening to the horse or jockey.
Shifting the Goal Posts
Courses can throw a spanner in the works by altering the course significantly. Moving the running rails onto fresh ground, installing new drainage systems, even mowing more heavily on one side of the track than the other can throw all historic data out the window. You should always look out for temporary biases. This is more significant on the turf, but also happens on the all weather after heavy downpours, sharp frosts or any condition which required extensive track maintenance.
Stalls Position and Straight Courses
Courses can position the stalls where they see best. They can place them on the inside, far side or middle of the track to help negate draw biases. Unfortunately FlatStats data does not include this information.
Be aware also that some courses have a straight and round course over the same distance. FlatStats data does not distinguish between them.
