FlatStats Horse Racing Ratings

The remark on the fav Marvellous in the oaks is wrong
Marvellous has won on turf
tagrooda should have been top

David,

Yes, Marvellous has run in Ireland but we only analyse Flat Turf and All Weather races in Britain.

Sometimes this can cause a problem with the ratings as there will be no EPS (Earnings Per Start) info for overseas raiders. But there is usually plenty of sire, trainer and jockey stats to analyse and to produce a value rating.

I was particularly interested in the last line of David's comment because I too calculated that Friday's Oaks winner should have been the top rated horse. A simple calculation based on individual stats and EPS suggested that 'Taghrooda' should have been well clear of 'Honor Bound'. Was the discrepancy because my calculation did not take account of the weightings the system uses for individual races (i.e. for going, type of course etc.) or simply because at near 20/1 'Honor Bound' was judged to be the 'better value' horse?

The ratings take into consideration the following:

EPS
Sire Stats
Trainer Stats
Jockey Stats
Draw Index
Trainer Form

Each produces a figure, which is then weighted depending on the type of race. This is then used to create an overall rating for each horse.

In the Oaks Taghrooda did have higer EPS than Honor Bound but if you look at the ratings table again you will see the raw scores for the sire, trainer and jockey. In each case the raw scores for Honor Bound were higher than Taghrooda.

e.g.
Honor Bound Sire = 657, Taghrooda sire = 525
Honor Bound Jockey = 420 (the highest in the race as indicted by an asterix), Taghrooda Jockey = 322

Thus Taghrooda may have had the best EPS but with everything taken into consideration Honor Bound had the better rating,

Many thanks – very helpful. An understanding of the compilation of the ratings is key to making the best use of the system. I target individual races, then use the historic and other data to determine whether to ‘play’ or not. I was at Epsom on Friday where I got three from four; a higher strike rate than I would have achieved without the benefit of the ratings system.
I was also at the Course for the first four yesterday, but nothing stood out for me and I kept my powder dry.

Thanks again.

Hello, Impressed with what I have seen. What time do the ratings go on the site thanks.

Michael,

The ratings are ready the evening before racing. The time is around half hour after the last race of the day.

If the last race today is 9:00pm then the ratings for tomorrow are online at 9:30pm.

Hi please could you give me an indication of the ideal draw on race courses turf as for example at ayr regardless of top ratings it seems that majority have won in the lower draws

Thank you Harvey

In handicap races are the rise in the OR taken in account of your ratings

Thank you Harvey

Harvey,

You can see the draw bias (which we predict to be the best or worst value) every day here:

Draw Bias Stats

Unlike other resources we calculate a draw bias index based on value, rather than number of wins or strike rate. This will tend to find better value draw ranges.

At Ayr today the only significant draw bias was in the 3:50 race. For all other races at Ayr no draw bias index was produced because the field sizes were too small.

You can see all our draw indexes for all courses, at all distances, in different field sizes and goings here:

Racecourse Draw Bias Table

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We do not use the Official Rating (OR). Our ratings are unique in that we do not use traditional beaten lengths, class or time ratings, to compile our ratings.

As I only have a mobile phone is it possible. to get the ratings on it

kind regards
andy

Andy,

Yes the site works well on smartphones. You can certainly view the ratings, systems info and stats easily. The racing system builder may not be suitable for some devices though as it does require a larger screen such as a tablet / iPad.

My question is, do backing all the blue top rated horses that are big prices show a profit? e.g. 10/1 +

Ed,

Blue top rated horses are best with shorter prices. The shorter the price the better the strike rate and the more profit is made.

You can check this via the System Builder. Run this dataset to see the result of backing all blue top rated horses:

Blue Top Rated System Builder Report

Scroll down to the SP Range section and you will see that those blue top rated horses that are in the top third of the betting break even, return a slight loss when in the middle of the betting and return a big loss if they are in the bottom third of the betting.

This shows that the more fancied blue top rated horses are the ones to follow.

Note too the much more profitable figures if you run the report at Betfair SP.

I have previously subscribed to your service
At the moment I have plenty of time to study systems. I need ratings for previous months is it possible to get them.
Thanks I will be rejoining soon

David,

You can research systems based on ratings via the system builder. Just click on the RATINGS button and you will see various categories you can filter for.

We also have CSV downloads of previous ratings but this is only available to subscribers.

More info on the CSV downloads here:

Ratings CSV Files Information

re my question on August last year I am very happy using the stats on my mobile phone, they work well on it

Kind regards
andy

Hi,
I see you mention above that the ratings take into account the following;
EPS, Sire Stats, Trainer Stats, Jockey Stats, Draw Index & Trainer Form.
I like the new addition of the Archie stats on the racecard but I was wondering (to avoid duplicating work) if these archie stats are already fully accounted for in your algorithm that comes up with your final stat rating?
Thanks,
John

John,

The Archie Stats are totally independent of the ratings so when calculating the ratings no Archie Stats are analysed.

However, the ratings formula may identify something, which is also identified on the Archie stats page. This could be something like:

Sires record with FTOs
If a sire has a good record with first time out horses then the ratings will use that stat. Similarly the Archie Stats page may also spot that a sire is good with FTOs and display that stat.

Jockey record at the course
The ratings check each jockeys course record and uses this as a component to produce the overall rating. The difference between this example and the Archie Stats page is that the ratings will use the stat regardless of it's value, whilst the Archie Stats page will only display the stat if it is either very positive or very negative.

Thanks PP. Very clear.
Do you think it could be possible in future to create a daily CSV for the Archie stats - split by wins/runs/AE etc?

There are now two CSV options on the Archie Stats page.

The first is for the daily archie list and the second is a historic record of all archie lists since the feature first started.

Hi,
If your win % return at SP is 97% for example over 1000 bets.

If commission is 5%, presume this is a winning lay strategy before commission (3% return) but losing after commission is taken into account (minus 2%) or am i reading this incorrectly ?


Many Thanks

I think there is some confusion over the percentages there Shergar.

Do you mean 97% profit (the ROI%) ? Or do you mean a 97% strike rate?

Assuming the later commission has no effect on the strike rate. It will only affect the profit or loss figures.

As an example laying the bottom rated horse in every handicap race hits a strike rate of 94%. This will be the same if the commission is 0% or 5%.

But the profits will be different.

Laying those horses at 0% commission: 0.1% ROI%
Laying those horses at 5% commission: 0.0% ROI%

This has had a tiny impact changing the profit from 0.1% to 0.0%

A better example is laying "Red Rated Odds-On Favourites" on the all weather. Doing so hits a strike rate of 48%, which will not change with different commission levels but the profit returned will:

Laying those horses at 0% commission: 8.0% ROI%
Laying those horses at 1% commission: 7.5% ROI%
Laying those horses at 2% commission: 6.9% ROI%
Laying those horses at 3% commission: 6.3% ROI%
Laying those horses at 4% commission: 5.7% ROI%
Laying those horses at 5% commission: 5.1% ROI%

Love the site and I am finding it a really useful tool. I cant see any flaws in it and the more I use it the more I see.
All the best and cheers.
Steve

Many thanks for the kind words steve. They are most appreciated!

Hi, great site fella and quality ratings, i'm having no problem finding winners from the top rated horses, fitted with a few requirements of my own, if this keeps up, i'll be a punter for life.

Yet another big priced winner found amongst the top rated horses, Spes Nostra wins @ 28/1. Coup. These are quality ratings.

A while ago I asked you about your ratings and were they any good for trading pre race,you said they are really meant for betting and not for trading. Well in the time that I have been with your amazing site I am blown away by how good your ratings have been for trading. They are unbelievable. Most of your fancied top rated steam massive amounts. Your ratings have been a huge help with my trading and am making money daily now so thanks very much,regards rob

Thanks for the feedback Rob.

It's good to hear that you are having success trading the ratings. I would say that the past few months have been a good time for the ratings and that when the changeover to the Flat Turf season starts next week the ratings may not be as effective. This should then settle down a few weeks after that.

Hello, new joiner today and already covered my payment with a horse that I would have ignored! Thank you for that FlatStats.

I do have a question for you if you wouldn't mind? I tend to back e/w 10-1 on course horses and jockey combinations. If I was to have backed e/w every one of your top rated horses over last season at a price of 10-1 or greater at level stakes would I be showing a profit? What would that profit/loss be?

Great site and with your first bit of information it is now free.

Many Thanks

Andy

That's a good start Andy, and thanks for the kind words.

Backing all 10/1 shots that are top rated on the flat turf is not profitable at SP. They have all returned a loss of about 27%. However, if you backed those horses at Betfair SP the loss would have only been around 4%,

That 4% loss is a good base to start with. You only need to be a bit more selective and you can turn that into a profit. I would suggest backing the double figure top priced horses that are quick returning (running within the last 7 days), or within the last 14 days to get more qualifiers but not as good results.

On the All Weather the results are better. Backing them all at Bookmaker SP has returned a loss of 21% but at Betfair SP the loss is only 0.4%. Again I would concentrate on those that are returning within the past week or two as these do really well,

Are the main ratings' lb ' based up to 146 ?

With thanks,
Paul.

PS : I have not been betting since ' Superform ' ceased publication. I found their basic pace figures and comments invaluable.

Paul,

Our ratings are unique in that they are totally based on value stats.

We do not use any kind of traditional form, such as finishing position, beaten lengths, or finishing times. We only use stats to determine, which horse is the most likely to be a value winner.

You can read more about the ratings here:

FlatStats Horse Racing Ratings

I have been a member/follower of your stats for quite some time and join for a 3 day period when I am going to be betting. I have a question if I may?

Your system works astoundingly at some tracks and not so well at others, are you able to tell me the top 5 tracks for the top 2 selections?

Many Thanks

Andy

Andy, you can check this via our system builder.

Just run a report for Ratings Position less than 3 and view the results in the courses table.

Neither surface is profitable at SP when backing the top two horses in the race but at Betfair SP the following courses have returned a profit:

Ascot 8.9%
Newcastle (AW) 7.7%
Newcastle (Turf) 7.4%
Thirsk 7.3%
Epsom 6.4%
Ripon 5.9%
Chelmsford (AW) 5.4%
Beverley 3.8%
Brighton 3.0%
Catterick 2.3%
Carlisle 1.7%
Pontefract 1.1%
Lingfield (Turf) 0.4%
Folkestone 0.3%
Southwel (AW) 0.3%

What are the combined chances that one of the top three horses win the race ? In other words, if I hypothetically bet on each of the top three horses, how many chances do I have one of these three horses wins the race ?

Many thanks
Alberto

Alberto,

Backing the top three rated horses in all flat turf and all weather races returns the following results:

Top Rated wins 22.6% of races
Second Rated wins 19.6% of races
Third Rated wins 13.5% of races

Backing them all combined (i.e. the top 3 races in each race) will find the winner in 52.6% of all races.

Note that backing them all does not return a profit at SP so you will need to be more selective in choosing better races and using the exchanges in order to profit from a method like this.

Do you provide your ratings only via this web page or can you deliver via email, API, or... ?

Alberto,

The ratings can be access on screen via this page.

At the top of the page (in the blue options box) there is a link to Export the ratings information in CSV format.

We also allow screen scraping or automatic retrieval of a page, or a CSV download resource via an automated method such as Curl / PHP. Note this only works for subscribers. More information here:

Login via PHP and Curl

Reminder about Site Scraping

What is the WCMI rating? Thanks.

Dan,

The WCMI rating is the Wisdom of the Crowd Market Index and is a figure, which tries to determine if punters are focusing on a particular horse or two, or if the market are clueless as to who will win.

The figures are based on work by The Sports Trader Blog. We produce our own figures based on the current Betfair prices, the Betfair SP and the standard SP for analysis.

You can read more about WCMI on our dedicated page here

Wisdom of the Crowd Market Index

For day to day usage you want to find races where there are low figures (coloured green) as they could indicate that the market do not have some kind of knowledge about the race and the betting is open. Races with high values (coloured red) mean that the market are totally focused on one, possibly two horses so unless you are backing the favourite in that race you may want to avoid it.

1st day here

6:20 Wolvs, got the £155 forecast , combo the top 5.
7:20 Wolvs ignored the fav, combo the top 5, got the £79 forecast.

Happy as pig in poo.

with 2 more races left

That's a good use of the ratings there Stephen. It is something I do quite often, especially if the favourite can be left out of the equation.

I see that you provided racecards for Dundalk for the 25th of March. Will you be producing racecourse stats for Dundalk in the future?

Regards Andrew.

Andrew,

The Irish cards will just be a temporary service whilst GB racing does not take place. It is unlikely this will be a permanent feature. There is more info here:

Irish Racing

Whats the max rating, if u pay do u pubish the rating before the race

Chris,

Our ratings are not like traditional ratings so there is no maximum, although the highest rating we have assigned in the past few years is less than 110.

All ratings are available to subscribers the evening before each race. Non subscribers can see one free sample race per before the start, and the ratings for all other races around 5 minutes after the race has finished.

Could you please explain what WCMI and HH1 means.

John

WCMI = Wisdom of Crowd Market Index
HHI = Herfindahl-Hirschman Index

Both are figures that can be used to determine if punters are tending to fancy one or two horses at the top of the market or if the betting is wide open (and thus punters do not have much clue as to which horse is going to win).

A high figure indicates that there is a strong favourite or two or so very fancied horses, whilst a figure approaching zero indicates that punters are not able to make an informed guess as to which horse will win. In this instance the betting may look like 3/1 joint favourites, 4/1, 5/1 and then a 6/1 etc.

There are charts associated with each figure. You can view the charts and determine when exactly punters started latching onto the favourite. If the figures are high overnight then this is probably a well know hot favourite. If the figures go high around 9am in the morning then this could be connections money forcing the price of the fav down. If the figures go high around midday then this could be tipster money, and if the figures go high before the race then this is oncourse money.

You can read more about the figures here:

Wisdom of Crowd Market Index

Herfindahl-Hirschman Index